Big 12 football 2026 preview: BYU, Texas Tech, Houston and Arizona top our post-transfer portal projections

The conference of chaos was unusually predictable last fall as Texas Tech, the preseason favorite, steamed to the Big 12 championship with a slew of dominating performances.

Will the conference race play out to script in 2026?

We don’t see the Red Raiders losing much ground, if any — they have the foundation for another run to the College Football Playoff.

But the collection of contenders looks stronger now than at this time last year. Perhaps the third season of the Big 12’s current era will prompt a return to mayhem.

The following projections are based on coaching changes and transfer portal decisions from a dizzying winter. They will be updated following spring practice and again at the close of training camp.

1. BYU

Last year: 12-2/8-1Comment: Our pick to win the Big 12 at this point in the offseason cycle retained its head coach, Kalani Sitake, quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, and star tailback, LJ Martin. But the Cougars should be strongest on defense. Returnee Isaiah Glasker and Cal transfer Cade Uluave will form the best linebacker tandem in the conference, and there are playmakers on the line and in the secondary, as well. Another advantage for BYU: Other than the Holy War, the toughest games are in Provo. The issue that caused the longest pause when assessing the Cougars? The impact of defensive coordinator Jay Hill’s departure to Michigan. He did masterful work.

2. Texas Tech

Last year: 12-2/8-1Comment: The Red Raiders will be the popular pick to repeat as conference champions following a dominant season and with an upgrade at quarterback courtesy of Brendan Sorsby’s arrival from Cincinnati. But Texas Tech lost its top defensive players, including edge David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and we wonder if the improvement on offense is enough to offset the expected regression on defense. Also, the Red Raiders’ spending advantage on transfer talent — they front-loaded with NIL like nobody else prior to July 1 — should diminish in the second year of revenue sharing.

3. Houston

Last year: 10-3/6-3Comment: The trajectory has been positive for the Cougars since the day (in December 2023) they hired Willie Fritz. But how high can they climb? We considered picking Houston to win the Big 12 — you read that right — based on the combination of quarterback Conner Weigman’s return, upgrades across the depth chart and Fritz’s track record of steady improvement. Another reason to like Houston’s chances: Keisean Henderson, the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the country in the 2025-26 recruiting cycle, gives Fritz tantalizing flexibility at the position.

4. Arizona

Last year: 9-4/6-3Comment: The Hotline considered Arizona State for this position but leaned to the Wildcats based on the returns of head coach Brent Brennan, play caller Seth Doege, quarterback Noah Fifita and defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales — a grand slam given the vital nature of those four roles. That said, the Wildcats must replace the top playmakers from their stellar secondary and, above all, find a way to avoid another downturn. No program has experienced swings of success and failure quite like the Wildcats, whose win totals over the past five years (1-5-10-4-9) are downright dizzying.

5. Arizona State

Last year: 8-5/6-3Comment: This selection is based partly on faith in coach Kenny Dillingham to again prove himself a quarterback whisperer and bring out the best in transfer Cutter Boley, who threw almost as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (15) last season for Kentucky. Dillingham also needs a No. 1 running back to replace Raleek Brown and a top receiver to replace Jordyn Tyson, although Colorado transfer Omarion Miller is a strong candidate for that role. The Sun Devils have more than enough roster continuity and coaching acumen to remain relevant. Whether they emerge as a true contender undoubtedly will depend on the outcome of a handful of plays across two or three games.

6. Oklahoma State

Last year: 1-11/0-9Comment: The most predictable element of the Big 12 race is the unpredictability: There will be two or three teams that far exceed expectations and two or three that are absolute duds. Oklahoma State is our top sleeper pick thanks to the arrival of coach Eric Morris, who won 12 games with North Texas last season, and his quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who passed for a paltry 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns. As Indiana proved, talented players from the Group of Five level, when properly coached, can change the fortunes of a Power Four program. According to the 247Sports database, the Cowboys have the top transfer class in the conference. Beware the Cowboys, who haven’t won a conference game since Nov. 25, 2023.

7. Utah

Last year: 11-2/7-2Comment: Our initial assessment of Utah was extremely positive — after all, longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley’s transition to head coach should be fairly smooth. But the longer we pondered the situation in Salt Lake City, the deeper we looked, the more skeptical we became. There’s no guarantee Scalley will be as effective as the boss as he was as the defensive playcaller. Will the offense operate as efficiently without coordinator Jason Beck, who followed Kyle Whittingham to Michigan, and star tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, who are headed to the NFL? If not for the return of quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, we might have the Utes a few spots lower.

8. West Virginia

Last year: 4-8/2-7Comment: The second sleeper pick for 2026 is based entirely on faith that Rich Rodriguez, as was the case with Willie Fritz at Houston last season, will orchestrate a major upturn in the second season of his second tenure. The Mountaineers lost 50 players to the transfer portal, according to 247Sports, and are welcoming 34 newcomers, including former Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins. We fully expect Rodriguez’s team to be bowl-eligible by mid-November. Only an arduous conference schedule, which includes Houston and Arizona at home and Texas Tech and Utah on the road, makes us slightly nervous about such an optimistic projection.

9. TCU

Last year: 9-4/5-4Comment: Sonny Dykes has won 18 games the past two seasons but failed to finish higher than fifth in the conference race since the College Football Playoff run four seasons ago. Both trends could continue in the fall, with the Horned Frogs not winning quite enough to escape the Big 12’s second tier. Much depends on the assimilation of quarterback Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer who carved up the Ivy League and should manage the transition to the next level without a major derailment.

10. Kansas State

Last year: 6-6/5-4Comment: Will 2026 be the year Avery Johnson unlocks his potential as an elite quarterback? Or is he the greatest talent tease the Big 12 has seen in eons? The task falls to first-year coach Collin Klein, the former KSU quarterback who takes over for Chris Klieman. We suspect the Wildcats, as was the case in 2025, will be disappointed.

11. Cincinnati

Last year: 7-6/5-4Comment: At this point in the projections, the Hotline is attempting to identify the one-eyed team in the kingdom of the blind. The Bearcats are the most palatable option despite losing quarterback Brendan Sorsby (to Texas Tech) and the warm seat underneath coach Scott Satterfield, whose team started strong in 2025 but lost its final five.

12. Kansas

Last year: 5-7/3-6Comment: Quarterback Jalon Daniels has moved on following his 14-year career (or so it seems), leaving a void with no clear replacement. We cannot help but think coach Lance Leipold, despite his early-tenure success, will be unable to alter KU’s multi-year downward trajectory. If the Jayhawks start slowly, it could get very bad very quickly.

13. Colorado

Last year: 3-9/1-8Comment: Speaking of downward trajectories, the Buffaloes collapsed in 2025 and enter a crucial year for coach Deion Sanders. For all the focus on the erratic quarterback play last season, CU’s biggest problem was, and remains, a turnstile offensive line that offers little protection for the quarterbacks and no lanes for the tailbacks. Losing star tackle Jordan Seaton (to LSU) won’t help matters. Get ready for another long fall in Boulder.

14. Iowa State

Last year: 8-4/5-4Comment: The departure of longtime coach Matt Campbell and arrival of Jimmy Rogers (from Washington State) is just one warning light flashing in Ames. The other: the loss of 55 players to the transfer portal. Many were high-level producers in the Big 12 and chose to follow Campbell to Penn State, including quarterback Rocco Becht. The replacements won’t be nearly as competitive. And based on what we saw from Rogers’ brief tenure in Pullman, there is good reason to wonder about the efficacy of Iowa State’s offense.

15. Baylor

Last year: 5-7/3-6Comment: The Bears received strong consideration for a spot in the top 10 based on the realistic chance that coach Dave Aranda will conjure an unlikely turnaround just as he did while on the hot seat in 2024. Of course, that scenario requires a breakthrough season from transfer quarterback DJ Lagway (from Florida), and we are not convinced that outcome is likely. Don’t discount the possibility of an in-season coaching change in Waco.

16. UCF

Last year: 5-7/2-7Comment: The Knights could finish in the middle of the pack if everything breaks just right for Scott Frost in the second season of his second tenure in Orlando. (The schedule is certainly soft enough to fuel an uptick.) More likely, the Knights will finish in a three-or four-team tie near the bottom of the standings.

---

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline