Perumtations & calculations: What Liverpool still need to do to secure top-8 Champions League finish

Liverpool are well on track to advance directly to the round of 16 in the Champions League, but there’s still a bit of work to be done to guarantee that outcome.

Following their 3-0 victory away to Marseille on Wednesday night (in which Dominik Szoboszlai scored an exquisite free kick), the Reds sit fourth in the league phase standings on 15 points going into the final matchday, when they’ll welcome Qarabag to Anfield next week.

Arne Slot’s side simply need to finish eighth or higher to bypass the knockout play-off round in February and proceed straight to the last 16, thus avoiding two tricky midweek fixtures next month.

Ahead of next Wednesday’s concluding league phase matchday, let’s analyse each possible outcome for Liverpool and where it could leave them in the final standings. For the best odds on all Champions League fixtures, check out NonGamStopBets betting sites.

If Liverpool beat Qarabag

This is by far the easiest one to work out – a sixth Champions League win of the season for the Reds will see them finish fourth or higher and go straight into the round of 16.

It’d also ensure that they play the second leg at home in that phase of the competition, as well as the quarter-finals if we make it that far.

If Liverpool draw against Qarabag

A first Champions League draw of the season would see Liverpool finish on 16 points, which would be enough to secure a top-eight finish if no more than four of the following teams win on Wednesday: Tottenham, PSG, Newcastle (those two play each other), Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting Lisbon, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta.

Of those clubs, only Spurs can surpass the Reds’ points tally, while the latter three would need to win by multiple goals to equal or better our goal difference of +6.

Although Arne Slot’s side would probably still finish in the top eight with a draw, the possiblity of being overtaken by several teams could hand them a theoretically tougher route in the knockout stages.

If Liverpool lose to Qarabag

A second home defeat in this European campaign on Wednesday night wouldn’t be fatal to Liverpool’s chances of qualifying directly to the round of 16, but it would put them at risk of being bumped out of the top eight.

It’d still require Spurs to avoid defeat and at least four out of PSG, Newcastle (who play each other), Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting Lisbon, Man City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta to win, but that is a plausible scenario.

Again, even a drop to eighth place would be enough to bypass the knockout play-off round, but it’d make the Reds’ task theoretically harder in subsequent rounds.

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