Newcastle United vs Leeds United – Preview, Lineups, Score Prediction
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Fixture: Newcastle United vs Leeds United
Competition: Premier League
Kick-off: 7th January, 20:15 UK time
Newcastle United will be thrust into action against Leeds United at St. James’ Park tonight, as they truly enter a punishing January schedule, during which time they will play nine games across four competitions.
Leeds United will be the visitors to the stadium at which Newcastle managed to scrape three points at the weekend against Crystal Palace. The Magpies have been inconsistent all season and Eddie Howe will have been elated that the Palace win came on the heels of an away victory at Burnley, amid his side’s form on the road being dubbed ‘awful’.
It would be a stretch though, to say that Newcastle have finally discovered some consistency. Burnley came within a whisker of equalising, after the Magpies had bolted away from the starting blocks to a 2-0 lead, when Josh Laurent hit the bar, while Will Hughes on Sunday missed a gilt-edged chance to put the visitors ahead after playing a slick one-two with Yeremy Pino.
Newcastle’s expected goal difference is the fifth best in the division. They though, have scored below their xG while conceding over it at the back. Both their goals against Crystal Palace came from set-pieces, one of Leeds’ strong suits, with the visitors tiring in the second half.
Leeds are on a seven-match unbeaten run, the spirited but futile comeback against Manchester City in the second half proving to be more than a moral victory.
The Whites though, have picked up only two wins across those games, while Daniel Farke might be pleased with a few of the draws amongst the five. Leeds have an eight-point cushion over the relegation zone, after Wolves managed their first win of the season against West Ham United, leading to former Leeds boss Simon Grayson praising the side’s mentality.
Farke might have rued his decision to rest a few of his starters against Liverpool on New Year’s Day, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s offside goal after coming on hinting at what might have been. Importantly it served to halt Calvert-Lewin’s goalscoring streak, Farke managing to do what six defences failed over the course of a month.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and Leeds fans can only know weeks or months from now, if Farke disrupted his striker’s rhythm or if he managed to stave off injuries for a player prone to them over his career.
All said and done, draws against Liverpool and Manchester United would have been very acceptable results and Farke will lead his side out at St. James’ Park, brimming with confidence.
Leeds have drawn their last three away league matches and the last three meetings between the two sides have also finished in a draw.
Newcastle will be without winger Anthony Elanga, who will be joined on the sidelines by longer-term absentees Dan Burn, Will Osula and Emil Krafth. Leeds will be without Dan James who remains out for the foreseeable future, while Farke revealed on Monday that one of Jayden Bogle or Joe Rodon could make the squad. Ethan Ampadu returns from suspension.
Predicted Lineups
Recent Form (league)
Newcastle United: WWLDL
Leeds United: DDDWD
Key Men
Newcastle United
Nick Woltemade’s physicality and movement in the box will test a Leeds defence that has managed just three clean sheets all season. Woltemade is the Magpies’ top scorer, along with Bruno Guimaraes, with seven goals and will be important in keeping the Whites’ backline occupied.
Bruno Guimaraes, in addition to his goals, also has two assists this season. Guimaraes has 16 passes leading to shots on target and will be key in both phases of transitions.
Anthony Gordon has scored 2.27 goals fewer than his underlying xG, with only four players in the top flight having underachieved by a wider margin. Gordon has blown hot and cold, and having not scored or assisted in three games, he will want to make a meaningful contribution.
Leeds United
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored six goals against Newcastle in the Premier League, and has only netted more against Crystal Palace, with seven, in the competition.
Former Leeds United star Nigel Martyn has lauded Calvert-Lewin for his ‘work rate, effort, team spirit.’ Calvert-Lewin came close to resuming on his merry way, when he hit the post against Manchester United, and will not want to allow the post or Pope to stand in his way.
Brenden Aaronson now has three assists in his last nine appearances. Aaronson continued his fine form by opening the scoring against Manchester United, and a goal at Elland Road against fierce rivals will have gone some way to endearing himself to the faithful. Aaronson will want to maintain his form, with pressure and expectations reduced for an away game.
Ethan Ampadu will want to get back into the thick of things after his return from suspension, and will be key to resisting Newcastle’s press while also dictating the rhythm of the Whites’ own press.
Match Prediction
Leeds having scored 26 goals, have underperformed, like Newcastle, their xG of 30.06 and will want to be more clinical.
There is a possible avenue of interest, with a matchup between the home side’s strength and the visitor’s weakness. Newcastle have forced 248 pressed sequences in the Premier League this season, more than any other side, while Leeds have conceded five goals from high turnovers, second only to bottom side Wolves with six conceded in the division this term.
With West Ham losing on Tuesday, Leeds know getting anything tonight would grow their lead over the Hammers.
Farke will certainly go into the game taking more risks than he did during his last away game, at Anfield, and that should be enough to extend their unbeaten streak.
Inside Futbol Score Prediction
Newcastle United 1-1 Leeds United
Where To Watch?
Newcastle United vs Leeds United will be broadcast live across the UK on the Sky Sports Cricket channel with a 20:15 kick-off time.
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