College Football Playoff: Are Big Ten's Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Ducks all semifinal-bound?
How old are we, dear friends?
Old enough to have lived to see Indiana favored against Alabama in a football game.
We’ve had a couple of years to let this out-of-nowhere, Curt Cignetti-led Hoosiers rise sink in, and the same amount of time to witness the subtle, yet unmistakable, decline of the post-Nick Saban Crimson Tide from ultimate superpower to College Football Playoff bubble dweller.
IU — basketball school no longer?
Bama — nothing extra-special?
Answer among yourselves. And while you’re doing that, ask yourselves if you can point to a time when Miami began to fall — hard — from superpower status while Ohio State started to ascend toward its football peak.
I was at the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., when the seemingly invincible 2002 Hurricanes — who rode in on a 34-game winning streak — were upset by the double-digit-underdog Buckeyes in double overtime for the national title. There haven’t been many nights like it.
Miami finished the following season ranked fifth in the country but hasn’t ended up in the top 10 or with fewer than three losses since. OSU, meanwhile, is working on what would be its 16th top-five finish over the same period — if it successfully gets past the Canes.
The playoff quarterfinals are here, with Texas Tech-Oregon and Georgia-Ole Miss as the other matchups. Let’s get to some predictions:
Cotton: No. 2 Ohio State (12-1) vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2)
Time, TV, location: 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, ESPN, Arlington, Texas.
Line: Ohio State -9½.
Winner gets: Georgia or Ole Miss.
Last we saw the Buckeyes, they were losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game. So much for going 16-0. Instead, it’s the Hoosiers who have a chance to achieve that FBS first.
But are the Buckeyes still the real best team in the land? They do have the best odds to win it all. They’d be favored in a rematch against the Hoosiers, at least for now. And if they overwhelm Miami, is anyone honestly going to be surprised?
In a 10-3 first-round win at Texas A&M, the Canes ran the ball at will and rushed the passer with game-long success. Those would be amazing places to start against the Buckeyes, who are night-and-day better than A&M defensively and have had three-plus weeks to get their protection in order.
“It comes down to our mindset and our preparation,” OSU coach Ryan Day told reporters. “When you get into the playoffs, you have to rebuild momentum, and that’s exactly what we need to do here.”
I’m buying it. Buckeyes, 24-13.
Orange: No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) vs. No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
Time, TV, location: 11 a.m. Thursday, ESPN, Miami.
Line: Oregon -2½.
Winner gets: Indiana or Alabama.
Will Tech duo David Bailey and Romello Height, who have 22½ sacks between them, live in the backfield against the Ducks? It seems unlikely. Oregon’s offensive line finished as runner-up for the Joe Moore award, which goes to the best wall o’ beef in the country. With excellent pass blockers and a mobile quarterback in Dante Moore, the Ducks should be able to handle themselves.
Oregon’s size and speed on defense will challenge the Red Raiders, who didn’t encounter an opponent this athletic in the Big 12. But the Ducks let James Madison score 28 in the second half of their playoff opener. That shouldn’t have happened.
“They know they can play to a higher level,” Ducks coach Dan Lanning said.
Tech is really good — better than Arizona State was last year — but this is a prime Big Ten foe. Give me the Quackers by a touchdown.
Rose: No. 1 Indiana (13-0) vs. No. 9 Alabama (11-3)
Time, TV, location: 3 p.m. Thursday, ESPN, Pasadena, Calif.
Line: Indiana -7.
Winner gets: Texas Tech or Oregon.
In the first round, Alabama rallied from a 17-0 deficit to win at Oklahoma. If that doesn’t scare the Hoosiers, nothing will.
My money’s on “nothing will.”
“You probably know more about the [Alabama] mystique than they do,” coach Curt Cignetti said in regard to his players. “Our guys just know what they see on tape.”
On tape, the Crimson Tide can be found looking nothing like a true contender to win it all. That’s just reality. The Tide have plenty of NFL talent, without a doubt, but there aren’t many things the Hoosiers haven’t done better.
And the Hoosiers wear crimson, too, you know. IU, 27-21.
Sugar: No. 3 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1)
Time, TV, location: 7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN, New Orleans.
Line: Georgia -6½.
Winner gets: Ohio State or Miami.
This is a rematch of a fantastic mid-October game, which Georgia won 43-35 at home after trailing most of the way.
But there’s no forgetting how brilliant the Bulldogs looked during a fourth quarter in which they dominated the Rebels 17-0. That’s when the real Georgia stood up, and this team has been up ever since. The 28-7 revenge win against Alabama in the SEC championship was a serious exclamation point.
Congrats to Ole Miss’ Pete Golding for moving up from defensive coordinator to head coach after Lane Kiffin’s departure. But now Golding has to tangle with Kirby Smart, and that’s some kind of dangerous. Dawgs, 38-24.