Leeds United vs Aston Villa – Preview, Lineups, Score Prediction
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Fixture: Leeds United vs Aston Villa
Competition: Premier League
Kick-off: 23rd November, 14:00 UK time
Leeds United and Aston Villa return to Premier League action after the international break, with Daniel Farke under increasing pressure as Leeds enter a stretch of fixtures that will truly be a rite of passage, where the Whites’ credentials as a top-level side will be under the scanner as opponents ready themselves to poke and prod, probing for frailties, psychological and footballing, while Aston Villa must prove an upturn in form can be sustained.
Doubts over Farke have re-emerged, with the German having already achieved promotion twice with Norwich City before struggling in the Premier League, as observers feel increasing confident to feel that old patterns are merely repeating.
One Leeds legend has criticised Farke’s tactics, claiming that they leave the forward isolated, while a former Championship player even suggested the German would be perfect for his old club Norwich City.
Farke will know that the testing period is probably more important on a personal level, with the Whites considered a big club historically, having failed twice earlier and after a summer outlay of around £100m.
The winter period will see Leeds take in games against Manchester City, Chelsea, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Liverpool twice. Farke can emerge from the crucible, forged and rid of impurities or mangled and destined to be consigned to a growing scrap heap.
The Whites will run the gauntlet beginning with this afternoon’s clash with Aston Villa. On paper they will have home advantage, having won eight of their eleven points at Elland Road.
Leeds though, have failed to score in each of their last three home league games against Aston Villa and it might have been four games if not for the farcical goal Mateusz Klich scored in 2019, after which Marcelo Bielsa sportingly intervened and instructed his side to allow Aston Villa to level the game.
Leeds are also winless in their last five Premier League games against Aston Villa and their last seven wins have been against sides starting the day in 13th place or lower in the table.
Farke will be up against a manager who he called one of the best in the business. Unai Emery is indeed one of the best in the business and equalled John Gregory as the Villa manager with most home wins in the Premier League, after the victory against Bournemouth.
Emery has emerged from his own testing period with his credentials burnished, enjoying wins over Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and a Bournemouth side that entered the fixture joint-third in the table. He has shown an ability to work with limited resources, utilising loans and drawing the best out of the squad at hand.
Now, he enters a fixture as favourites, with Aston Villa having lost just one of their last eleven Premier League away games against Leeds, as they last went down 3-1 in May 2003 under Graham Taylor. Aston Villa are also unbeaten in all 17 of their Premier League games against promoted sides under Emery.
Aston Villa’s away record in the Premier League has been less than ideal this season, with a 2-1 win over Tottenham being the only time they have picked up all three points, but Emery has a chance to set that right when he locks horns with Farke for the very first time.
He will be without Tyrone Mings, but hopes to be able to call upon Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, Amadou Onana and Lamare Bogarde.
Predicted Lineups
Recent Form (league)
Leeds United: LLWLL
Aston Villa: WLWWW
Key Men
Leeds United
Daniel James helped guide Wales to their biggest win since 1978 and to the playoffs for the World Cup with a goal against a previously undefeated North Macedonia side with whom the Dragons were in contention with for second spot in their group. James will do well to bring that confidence in and help lift a Leeds side that looks a bit deflated.
Joe Rodon too started alongside James for Wales. Importantly, only Erling Haaland, with eleven, has won more attacking first contacts at corners in the Premier League this season than Rodon with ten. Set pieces, which Farke acknowledged, and Rodon will be key if Leeds are to get something from the game.
Daniel Farke has a chance to be brave and set up his side to be more attacking rather than looking to limit damage at their own end. A win will go a long way towards restoring confidence ahead of a tricky spell.
Aston Villa
Morgan Rogers has established as a key person for club and country. After going toe-to-toe with Jude Bellingham for the England No. 10 shirt, Rogers will want to put in a dominant performance to keep his own upwards trajectory intact.
John McGinn helped Scotland return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 in dramatic fashion. The captain will want to inspire his club to keep pushing up the table too.
Emiliano Buendia has five goal involvements in his last five Premier League appearances for Aston Villa, averaging a goal involvement every 39 minutes, with it being as many goal involvements as he had recorded in his previous 37 league appearances. His revival has been stunning and he will want to prove a point against the club he was linked with last season, as Donyell Malen pushes for a starting role.
Match Prediction
Aston Villa keep going from strength to strength after a poor start to their season, while Leeds’ light keeps getting dimmer after a promising and bright beginning back in the top-flight.
Every man and his dog has had his say about what Farke should do but the German seems to hesitate to take all gloves off, preferring to accumulate goals and points, eschewing risk to as great extent as possible.
This method though has not been working recently and despite the £100m spend in the summer, the penny-pinching with forwards, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha arriving on frees, has come back to bite Leeds.
Farke has to compensate for this by trying to find goals from elsewhere in the eleven or by creating more to compensate for the forwards’ xG underperformance. This becomes true more so at Elland Road, if home advantage is to be made to count.
While Farke might have tried to spin it as a positive in October when he said that they have not been lucky with their results, his side might have felt that, despite being at their best, they came away empty-handed. The only way, it seems now, to get back the confidence is through attacking football which implicitly would give the sense that they are at par or better than their opponents, but it is difficult to see Farke adopting that strategy against Aston Villa.
When Farke made that comment in October, he mused that they could have been level with Tottenham on points. It is Emery’s side who are level with Spurs on points now.
Aston Villa should prove too strong and too brave for Leeds despite their home advantage, with Emery likely emerging from his first meeting with Farke with another scalp.
Inside Futbol Score Prediction
Leeds United 0–2 Aston Villa
Where To Watch?
Leeds United vs Aston Villa in the Premier League will be live on Sky Sports Main Event for a 14:00 kick-off in the UK.
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