Red Sox Predicted To Sign Strikeout Specialist To $168M Deal

The Boston Red Sox made the postseason, but lost to the New York Yankees. Garrett Crochet was sensational in Game 1, but the Yankees were able to get to Red Sox starters in Games 2 and 3. Boston may be in the market for some starting pitching this offseason as a result.

There are plenty of star pitchers on the open market, but not all will be a fit for the Red Sox. Craig Breslow wants to add a frontline starter, and not every pitcher in free agency is going to be able to slot in as the Red Sox’s No. 2 starter. However, Dylan Cease is a pitcher who could be great in Boston.

Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito actually had solid seasons for the Red Sox, so it will take an elite arm to bump them down in the rotation. Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller predicted Cease would sign a six-year, $168 million deal with the Red Sox this winter.

Cease had a 4.55 ERA last season. It was a down year for him, but he continued his strikeout hitters at a high rate. He led all of baseball in strikeouts-per-nine-innings last season.

“The year 2025 was an unlucky one for Dylan Cease, ending up with an ERA nearly a full run worse than his FIP,” Miller wrote on Wednesday. “That’s standard, small-sample stuff you’ll see over the course of around 50 innings, but pitchers who log enough innings to qualify for an ERA title rarely have that large a divide between their ERA and what it theoretically ought to be.”

Cease has made at least 30 starts in each of the last five seasons. He was the Cy Young Award runner-up in 2022 and fifth in the race in 2024. Cease has struggled with walks in his career, but he racks up strikeouts at an elite rate.

“In fact, 2025 was his fifth consecutive season with at least 210 strikeouts, putting him in some rarefied air,” wrote Miller. “Over the past four decades, only nine other pitchers have accomplished that: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Félix Hernández, Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole (who did it five times in a row from 2018-23 if you don’t count 2020 against him).”

Cease leads all of baseball in strikeouts since 2022. Red Sox starters ranked outside of the top 10 in strikeouts last season. Adding Cease could give Garrett Crochet an elite running mate who can mow through lineups.

Cease rejected his qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres. Teams who want to sign him will not only pay a great price financially, but also forfeit draft capital.