Italy vs Norway: How a win, tie, or loss would affect their 2026 World Cup qualifying hopes
Italy hosts Norway at San Siro on the final matchday of the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers, setting up a thrilling finish in Group I. The group winner will clinch an automatic berth to the North American tournament, while the runner-up will have to fight through the playoff game during the March international window.
With one game left, Norway holds the edge with a perfect campaign, collecting 21 points from seven wins. Led by Erling Haaland, the Norwegians arrive in Milan fresh off a dominant 4-1 victory over Estonia last Thursday, with the Manchester City star and Alexander Sorloth each netting a brace.
Italy, meanwhile, sits second with 18 points: six wins and just one loss, a 3-0 defeat to Norway back in June. Following a 2-0 win over Moldova on Thursday, Gennaro Gattuso’s squad will be desperate to deliver a clutch performance and pry the World Cup ticket out of Norway’s hands.
What happens if Norway wins vs. Italy?
If Norway beats Italy, it will qualify for the 2026 World Cup, marking its first appearance since the 1998 edition, 26 years ago. Italy would be locked into the playoffs with no threat to its second-place finish, as third-place Israel, currently on 9 points, cannot catch the Azzurri even with a win over Moldova.
What happens if Italy and Norway draw?
If the match ends in a draw, Norway will also punch its ticket to the World Cup, finishing the group with 22 points from eight games. As with a win from Haaland’s side, Italy would be forced into the playoff round, even with 19 points, a total higher than some nations that will finish at the top of UEFA World Cup qualifiers.
What happens if Italy wins vs. Norway?
If Italy manages to beat Norway, its qualification hopes will come down to the margin of victory. A win at San Siro would move the Azzurri to 21 points, level with Norway, leaving goal difference as the decisive tiebreaker.
In that scenario, Norway still holds a huge cushion. After scoring 33 goals and conceding just four, Haaland’s squad sits at a massive +29 goal differential, while Italy is at +12. That gap means Italy would need to win by nine goals or more, an unrealistic task. If they fall short of that margin, Norway will finish first even in defeat, and Italy will end up in second.