Aston Villa made a huge mistake in the transfer window and Roberto Olabe needs to fix it

Aston Villa were on a four-match winning run in the Premier League before they were beaten at Liverpool on Saturday.

Villa were largely the architects of their own downfall at Anfield. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez made a distribution error at the end of the first half, throwing away a hard-working performance out of possession by passing to Mohamed Salah and leaving him with the easiest of his 250 Liverpool goals.

Arriving so soon after Liverpool had a goal disallowed, the mistake let the Reds off the hook and played them back into the ascendancy. It was a major turning point in the game but there was a longer term problem evolving in the details with Villa a goal down.

Watkins isn’t getting chances to score

Unai Emery‘s side should have been in the game at 1-0. Their first-half performance proved as much and they’ve come from behind to win more than once this season.

Despite hitting the woodwork a couple of times from outside the penalty area, Villa never really looked like scoring after going behind. They had an expected goals (xG) value of 0.41 for the game and didn’t create a single big chance.

Villa are averaging 0.75 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. Striker Ollie Watkins has scored one goal from a total xG – a total xG – of 1.7, according to Fbref. That’s truly dismal.

There’s no single cause that explains Villa’s inability to put Watkins in goalscoring positions this season.

It’s a matter of Villa’s style not being designed or executed to create good chances for him but also of his own dip in form. The team not playing well at the start of the season was unhelpful but Watkins hasn’t hit his stride as the players around him have improved.

Villa’s transfer window oversight

The low number of quality chances is exacerbated by Watkins being both a volume striker – he scores lots but from a high number of attempts, often of his own making – and a streaky one.

Watkins is Villa’s record Premier League scorer for a reason. He is trusted by England. At his best, he’s capable of being Thomas Tuchel’s clear first-choice understudy to the unassailable Harry Kane.

But he’s starting to stand out in the Villa side and that combination of factors, both in his control and not, has highlighted a major oversight in the summer transfer window.

Villa needed to sign a centre-forward. If Watkins got injured or hit a dry patch, not having any kind of back-up would leave Villa short. They signed Donyell Malen in January and Evann Guessand in the summer, both deemed striker options in reserve but neither actually capable of doing it.

Lack of striker options has left Villa hamstrung

Serious competition in the form of Jhon Durán and Marcus Rashford didn’t get anything like the best out of Watkins last season and Villa couldn’t afford that in the summer anyway, but their loss should have been addressed at a lower level.

Watkins is struggling and Villa have nowhere to turn. There’s no competition and no back-up either, not even in the form of an untested youngster. Nothing.

Villa’s first summer signing was indeed a striker. Zépiqueno Redmond came in from Feyenoord with very little experience under his belt. He was loaned to Huddersfield Town in League One – he ruptured his ACL so he’s not playing for them either – which suggests it was never the plan to have him on the bench this season.

So, what was the plan?

I have all the time in the world for Watkins. I see in him a player who holds himself to the highest professional standards, works his socks off in every match and has the quality to be a major contributor to Villa’s consecutive European qualifications.

It’s not even that he definitely needs to be rested for a week or taken out of the firing line. We’ve seen from Emery’s handling of Morgan Rogers‘ poor start that the best place to get back amongst it is sometimes the pitch. It’s just that Villa need the leeway to try other things.

We go again…

I don’t have the answer to Watkins’ struggles but I do know that it would have been better if Villa had something, anything, in reserve.

Maybe competition would have helped. Maybe a back-up would have allowed a moment out of the spotlight. Maybe having a young striker to cut his teeth in some cup matches and get a Premier League chance if and when it was decided that a game or two out of the side would be useful.

Villa have none of it. No Durán. No Rashford. No Redmond. Not even a Louie Barry last resort or a cheap body from elsewhere.

The latter fix can be achieved. The January transfer window felt like an awfully long way away while watching the second half at Anfield but it’s on the horizon and Roberto Olabe has a striker conundrum to address.

Villa won’t be breaking the bank for anyone in any position and won’t spend anything like the money required to actually upgrade or legitimately compete with Watkins, but investing in a striker in some form is a must.

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