The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 22nd October) - Promise, Frustration, and the Search for Balance
Good Morning. It's Wednesday 22nd October, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...
Promise, Frustration, and the Search for Balance
Leeds United’s recent run of five matches has raised familiar concerns about their ability to control games early. The Whites have yet to strike first or keep a clean sheet in that stretch, leaving themselves with uphill battles each week. For all the frustration, Leeds’ fightback spirit remains intact—they have shown resilience to claw their way back into contests that seemed lost.
Their 2.63 expected goals (xG) against Burnley, driven by 19 shots and four big chances, reflected industry rather than incision; openings came thick and fast, but the requisite composure in front of goal was missing.
Defensively, the headline figure of 13 goals conceded in eight matches paints a grim picture, placing Leeds among the league’s more porous sides.
However, the underlying data tells a more nuanced story. In terms of non-penalty expected goals against (npxG), Leeds rank among the best, with only Arsenal, Newcastle, and Manchester City tougher to breach. The same pattern emerges in shots faced—just 78—again bettered by that elite trio. In essence, opponents are not creating many clear-cut opportunities, yet Leeds concede more than the data predicts they should!
The numbers suggest an underperforming defence rather than a broken one. Leeds should have conceded around eight times by now but have shipped twelve, making them 3.8 goals worse off than expected—the league’s largest shortfall. That discrepancy often evens out over time, hinting that fortune and variance have played their part. If Farke’s men maintain their current defensive structure and rediscover sharpness in attack, regression to the mean could yet turn those narrow defeats into decisive wins.
Farke defends DCL's decision not to take the knee
Daniel Farke has spoken out in defence of striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin after the forward chose not to take the knee before the club’s 2–0 defeat to Burnley at Turf Moor. While the rest of the players participated in the symbolic gesture that forms part of the Premier League’s ongoing No Room For Racism campaign, Calvert-Lewin stood, prompting questions about his stance.
Farke, however, was quick to clarify that the club fully respects the personal choices of its players when it comes to demonstrating solidarity against discrimination. The German coach stressed that every individual expresses their commitment to equality in their own way, recalling that former Leeds winger Crysencio Summerville had also opted not to kneel, preferring instead to “stand up against racism.”
Farke emphasised that Calvert-Lewin’s decision should not be misinterpreted as indifference to the cause, noting the striker’s strong personal values and clear support for inclusivity...
It’s up to the individual player. We had this taking the knee for such a long time. I remember with Cree Summerville, who never took the knee, and one day I asked him and he said, ‘I’d rather stand up against racism,’ so everyone has their own ideas. “ou would have to ask Dominic. I wouldn’t interpret too much.
Joffy steals the headlines against Leicester City
Joe Gelhardt stole the headlines last night as Hull City stunned promotion favourites Leicester City with a spirited performance at the MKM Stadium. The 23-year-old forward not only scored a decisive goal but also provided a crucial assist, inspiring the Tigers to a memorable win. Gelhardt’s impact has been steadily growing since his arrival, with four goals already to his name this season. His adaptability—shifting seamlessly between striker, attacking midfielder, and winger—has made him one of Sergej Jakirović's most dependable attacking options.
According to WhoScored, Gelhardt’s average rating of 7.05 places him third among all Hull players, underlining his growing influence in a side pushing for the play-offs. With Hull now sitting seventh in the Championship table, optimism is building around the play-offs. For Joffy, this renaissance in East Yorkshire marks a sharp contrast to his stagnant spell at Leeds. Since the 2022/23 campaign, he managed barely 403 minutes of league game time across three seasons, with just two short January loan moves sanctioned.
Leeds’ handling of their young prospects has long been questioned—apart from the meteoric rise of Archie Gray, few academy graduates have been given a real platform to succeed. The success stories of Leif Davis and Charlie Cresswell elsewhere only deepen the frustration among Leeds supporters, who see potential talent slipping away. Gelhardt’s resurgence at Hull serves as both inspiration and indictment—proof that with trust, opportunity, and the right environment, young players can thrive. Perhaps if Leeds had shown more faith and strategic vision in nurturing their youth, their current fortunes might look very different.