Liverpool’s Champions League qualification hopes assessed after sobering loss to Galatasaray
Liverpool’s hopes of qualifying directly for the last 16 of the Champions League took a hit on Tuesday night when they were beaten 1-0 by Galatasaray in Istanbul.
A Victor Osimhen penalty consigned the Reds to defeat and, following the conclusion of Wednesday’s fixtures, dropped them to 17th in the league phase table after matchday 2.
Before the tournament started, Opta’s win prediction model gave Arne Slot’s side the highest chance of any of the 36 participating teams to lift the trophy in Budapest next May, and despite losing in midweek, they should still be among the favourites to triumph outright.
If you want to view the latest odds on Liverpool’s chances of winning the Champions League in 2025/26, then take a look through this UK betting sites list.
How likely are Liverpool to qualify directly for Champions League last 16?
The Reds have three points after two matches in the competition, and they’re still just one point outside the top eight positions, which of course guarantee a straight passage to the round of 16.
Simulations from Football Meets Data calculated that a top-eight finish for LFC has reduced by 26.72% after the loss to Galatasaray, the biggest decrease of any club following the completion of matchday 2.
Winners and Losers of UCL Matchday 2 (Top 8⃣ race):
Most probability gained:
+23% PSG
+14% Bayern
+11% Atletico Madrid
+10% Newcastle
+9% Inter
+8% B. Dortmund
…Most probability lost:
-27% Liverpool
-16% Barcelona
-11% Union SG
-7%… pic.twitter.com/YvPG5iI6IV— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) October 1, 2025
However, with the table not quite taking shape after just 25% of the league phase, Liverpool can still feel confident of clawing back the lost ground and finishing eighth or higher and bypassing the knockout play-off round in February?
It’s also worth noting that Paris Saint-Germain had to come through that extra hurdle last season before going on to win the Champions League outright.
Liverpool’s remaining Champions League fixtures
The Reds’ next European tie sees them travel to face Eintracht Frankfurt in three weeks’ time, before successive home games in November against Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven.
They then take on Inter Milan and Marseille away either side of the festive period before completing the league phase at Anfield against Qarabag, the surprise package of the tournament so far.
In last season’s Champions League, 16 points were required to finish in the top eight. Based on that projection, Liverpool need 13 from their remaining six matches (i.e. four wins and a draw).
It means that the Reds would realistically have to beat at least one of Eintracht, Real Madrid or Inter when, in isolation, draws in any of those games would be respectable. They also must ensure they don’t slip up in the other three matches, particularly at home to PSV and Qarabag.
The task of finishing in the top eight has certainly become harder after losing to Galatasaray, but as PSG showed a few months ago, it’s not the end of the world for Slot’s team if they have to go through the knockout play-offs.
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