How Will Brayan Bello Attack Yankees Lineup In Game Two?

When Brayan Bello takes the mound for game two against the New York Yankees, he’ll be facing a lefty-heavy lineup. Six of the Yankees’ nine starters are left-handed. The Boston Red Sox starter has struggled with lefties over the last month, allowing a .766 OPS against them in September.

Lefties have been an issue for Bello in his career. Last season, he allowed a .795 OPS against lefties. He had made improvements this season, holding them to a .667 OPS from March to August of this season.

That improvement was in part due to the addition of a cutter. For the first several months of the season, Bello threw the pitch to the armside, landing it on the outside edge for called strikes. He complemented the pitch with his sinker, living away with that pitch as well. Later in counts, he turned to his changeup to put hitters away.

More recently, Bello has flipped his approach. He’s using his cut fastball more often, increasing the usage from 15% to 28% in September. He also started trying to jam hitters with the pitch, throwing it inside rather than backdoor. The switch hasn’t been effective. The ideal contact rate, a measure of contact quality, increased from 39.3% to 58.3%. For reference, anything about 40% is usually considered too high.

Similarly, with the sinker, Bello started throwing the pitch to the front hip instead of away from hitters. The strike rate dropped from 66% to 57%, contributing to Bello’s increased walk rate against lefties. Opponents hit his sinker harder as well.

Finally, his changeup execution wasn’t as sharp in September. For the first few months of the season, he was able to land the pitch down and away consistently, allowing him to put hitters away. In September, he’s thrown the pitch too far below the zone, leading to fewer whiffs.

On top of that, his changeup is the only pitch he’s throwing on the outer half. He’s starting his sinker on the inner half and trying to land it on the inside edge, while the cutter doesn’t have a huge movement profile to mirror the changeup. Hitters might have an easier time recognizing the pitch because of where it’s being thrown.

Through the first five months of the season, Bello’s approach to left-handed hitters was more effective. Against a lefty-heavy Yankees’ lineup, it will be interesting to see if he flips the script or continues trying to pitch inside.