College football picks: The discussion has turned to parity, close games and upsets
Two weeks ago, the talk in college football was about all the blowouts. Let’s write those off to early season mismatches.
The discussion has turned to parity, close games and upsets.
The average winning margin in the Football Bowl Subdivision in Week 5 was 14.2 points. No week in a regular season has had a narrower margin since Week 7 in 2022, when it was 12.5.
Losses by Penn State, LSU and Georgia marked the first time since 2016 that three top-five teams in The Associated Press poll lost the same week in the regular season.
Top-five teams are 1-4 against opponents ranked 6 to 25, the worst record through a Week 5 since at least 2000, according to Sportradar. In games matching Top 25 opponents, the higher-ranked team is just 3-12.
Penn State coach James Franklin, fresh off a 30-24 two-overtime loss to Oregon, said he used last week’s top-five wreckage to show his players that their goals remain intact. He also noted that 2024 national champion Ohio State had regular-season losses to Oregon and Michigan.
“I think college football is different than maybe how it’s been in the past,” Franklin said. “You got to do everything you possibly can to put yourself in the best position to get into the playoffs and then make a run.”
The picks for this week’s games involving AP Top 25 teams and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State (minus 24)
Ohio State is allowing just 5.5 points per game and QB Julian Sayin is getting more comfortable every game. Gophers have scored 17 touchdowns over four games — but only a combined eight against three FBS opponents.
Pick: Ohio State 35-10.
No. 3 Miami (minus 4 1/2) at No. 18 Florida State
Great QB matchup between Miami’s Carson Beck and FSU’s Tommy Castellanos. That said, the team that runs the ball best will have the upper hand. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. looks to go over 100 yards a third straight game. FSU’s rushing average of 336 per game is bloated by games against East Texas A&M and Kent State.
Pick: Miami 33-28.
Kent State at No. 5 Oklahoma (minus 45 1/2)
Sooners couldn’t ask for a better week to have QB Michael Hawkins step in for John Mateer (hand surgery). Hawkins saw mop-up duty against Temple but otherwise hasn’t played since he started four games last season. A Kent State warmup before a showdown with Texas is a stroke of luck for OU.
Pick: Oklahoma 55-7.
Mississippi State (plus 14) at No. 6 Texas A&M
Aggies RB Le’Veon Moss hammered his way through what was the SEC’s best run defense in Auburn and is getting better by the week. Bulldogs can make it close if RB Fluff Bothwell gets going and Aggies don’t clean up their penalty issues.
Pick: Texas A&M 27-20.
No. 7 Penn State (minus 25 1/2) at UCLA
This looks like easy pickings for the Nittany Lions, who should play with an edge after their loss to Oregon. No team in the Big Ten gives up more yards or points than the Bruins.
Pick: Penn State 48-14.
No. 9 Texas at Florida (plus 7)
Texas AB Arch Manning has had a month to get right after his flop at Ohio State, so now let’s see how he fares in the Swamp against a quality defense. It would be tempting to pick an upset here if Gators’ offense weren’t struggling so much.
Pick: Texas 23-19.
No. 11 Texas Tech (minus 10 1/2) at Houston
Tech first-year defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, who had the same job at Houston last year, has put together a salty defense to go with a high-scoring offense. Red Raiders will have starting QB Behren Morton back after he was knocked out of the win at Utah on Sept. 20.
Pick: Texas Tech 44-21.
Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia (minus 20 1/2)
Bulldogs have allowed a combined 45 first-half points and trailed at the break in last two games against Tennessee and Alabama. Kentucky better strike early if it’s going to keep it close. Wildcats coach Mark Stoops is 0-12 vs. Georgia.
Pick: Georgia 38-14.
No. 14 Iowa State (plus 1 1/2) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati gave up seven pass plays of 25-plus yards, including TDs of 93 and 75 yards, in last week’s 37-34 win at Kansas. Cyclones’ pass coverage also is a concern because of injuries.
Pick: Iowa State 31-28.
No. 16 Vanderbilt (plus 10 1/2) at No. 10 Alabama
Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and their offense is churning out points at a rate not seen in the program in 110 years. Alabama hasn’t forgotten last year when, as the No. 1-ranked team, it was upset in Nashville.
Pick: Alabama 38-31.
Wisconsin (plus 17 1/2) at No. 20 Michigan
Michigan had its way running the ball against Nebraska two weeks ago. Coach Sherrone Moore, back after serving a two-game suspension, doesn’t expect it to be as easy against the nation’s top run defense.
Pick: Michigan 30-14.
Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (minus 20 1/2)
The Irish have scored 56 points two straight games, and don’t look for the Broncos to slow the roll. Boise State returns to the national spotlight for the first time since laying an egg against South Florida.
Pick: Notre Dame 45-17.
No. 24 Virginia (plus 7) at Louisville
This is a strength-against-strength matchup. Virginia is No. 2 in the ACC in offense and Louisville is No. 2 in defense. Virginia has led in the fourth quarter in the last two meetings while losing three straight to the Cardinals.
Pick: Louisville 30-24.
No. 22 Illinois at Purdue (plus 9 1/2)
Illinois has given up 20 plays of 20-plus yards, second-worst mark in the Big Ten. Purdue has allowed 18, with six going for at least 40. Purdue’s Ryan Browne has thrown for 250-plus yards in three of his four games but has been intercepted five times.
Pick: Illinois 45-42.
West Virginia at No. 23 BYU (minus 18 1/2)
West Virginia is 99th in the nation in scoring and has recorded 14 and 10 points in its last two games. BYU has allowed four TDs in four games and its 9.3 points allowed per game leads the Big 12 and is fourth nationally.
Pick: BYU 31-10.
Byes: No. 2 Oregon, No. 4 Mississippi, No. 8 Indiana, No. 13 LSU, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 17 Georgia Tech, No. 19 Missouri, No. 25 Arizona State.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 13-3; Against spread — 6-10.
Season: Straight-up — 69-10; Against spread — 38-41.
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