Former Red Sox Ace Could Be Next (And Last?) Pitcher To Reach 3K Strikeouts
Much has been written this week about Clayton Kershaw after the legendary Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher collected his 3,000th career strikeout. It came Wednesday in the Dodgers’ 5-4 win over the Chicago White Sox. But that accomplishment begs the question: Who’s next?
A quick look at the active MLB strikeout leaders shows a few aces who could be targeting 3,000:
- Chris Sale, Braves: 2,528 strikeouts
- Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 2,251 strikeouts
- Charlie Morton, Orioles: 2,131 strikeouts
- Yu Darvish, Padres: 2,0007 strikeouts
Because of their ages, let’s start by dismissing Darvish (38) and Morton (41). And if you’re wondering about Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, both already belong to the 3K club.
So let’s start with Sale. Yes, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner is currently on the 60-day injured list with broken ribs. And yes, the southpaw has been injury-prone ever since helping the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series.
But when healthy, there’s no one better a punching out batters than Sale. Three times he’s led his league in strikeouts, including 2017 when he set a personal best with 308 K’s. And then there’s this: According to Baseball Reference, Sale is second all-time with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Only Blake Snell (11.2) has a higher rate. That means Sale is a better strikeout pitcher than Randy Johnson (10.6), Pedro Martinez (10.0), Nolan Ryan (9.5), Sandy Koufax (9.3) and Roger Clemens (8.6).
When Sale returns, he will need 421 strikeouts to reach 3,000. Based on his strikeout rate, he should cross the threshold within the next two years if he can stay healthy and his arm remains elite.
As for Cole, he’s only 34 years old. Twice he’s led the majors in strikeouts, including 2019 when he set a career high with 326 K’s. And Cole sports an impressive 10.4 K/9 ratio. But reaching 3,000 will depend on how well he recovers from Tommy John surgery, which cost him his 2025 season. If Cole bounces back, and if he comes close to his career K/9 ratio, it could only take him three seasons to pick up the 749 strikeouts he needs to crack 3,000.
Aside from Cole and Sale, however, it could be quite some time before we talk about a pitcher approaching 3,000 strikeouts. “There are a few guys left … the Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubals of the world, I just don’t know if they’ll have enough opportunity,” Kershaw said, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. “If they throw 220 innings, if you can do that, you’ve got to do that for 10 years. It’s just the longevity part of it.
“I’m hopeful there is. I’m hopeful there’s a return to starting pitching in baseball. I think it’s good for the entertainment factor. It’s good for the game in general.”
“Nobody, probably, will ever get to it,” said Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (1,761 career strikeouts), per Ardaya. “I don’t know. It might be somebody. But they’re going to have to throw a lot and not get hurt.”
“I don’t want to say never,” said Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior, according to Ardaya. “I feel like every time someone comes up with 3,000, there’s always like, ‘It’s not going to happen again,’ and somebody eventually gets there.
“But it’s just hard. It’s the longevity and health and endurance piece, and then obviously you’ve got to be somebody who strikes guys out and be able to maintain that.”
Kershaw was the 20th member of the 3,000-strikeout club. If and/or when Sale and Cole get there, they could be the last of a dying breed.
“It’s epic,” said Giants manager Bob Melvin, per Ardaya. “Will you ever see it again? Guys are throwing 150 innings now, how are you going to do that?”