Reading vs Wycombe Wanderers: Match Preview
The Royals entertain the Chairboys in an early kick-off at the SCL.
A disappointing result on Tuesday means the Royals are once again outside of the playoffs. The Blackpool game is potentially one we expected to lose, given we haven’t won there in 23 years, but there was some hope the unbeaten run would carry on.
Wycombe Wanderers have been on an average run of form lately, most recently drawing with next Tuesday’s rivals Shrewsbury Town. This moved them down to third and they’re no longer favourites to go up automatically alongside Birmingham City. That knock of confidence may be all that Reading need to get something in this match.
In this preview I want to have a look at the Shrewsbury and Lincoln City games to see what Wycombe can do right, as well as what they do wrong in specific situations, and then give my predictions.
What? League One matchday 40
Season? 2024/25
Who? Wycombe Wanderers
Where? Select Car Leasing Stadium
When? Saturday April 5
Time? 12:30
Opposition manager? Mike Dodds
Analysis of Wycombe’s previous games
Wycombe like to dominate their opponents, showing this with their 61% possession against Shrewsbury. They also like to get as many shots off as they can, reaching a staggering 33 in that same match. However, only seven of them were actually on target, with Jamal Blackman saving each one.
Giving Wycombe no room to shoot is something Reading could be quite good at. A tight midfield allows many pop-shots from outside the box, proving Wycombe would have to provide intricate passing plays to break down the solid defence.
Personally, I think this plays into Reading’s strength on the counter. Although Reading like to have possession in games, sometimes that goes out of their favour and nothing much gets done with it.
Their consistent ‘press from the front’ mentality means the midfield can man-mark the specific players that would receive the ball on a regular basis, similarly to what Stockport County did to Reading in both games this season. This would ruin all of the passing options, causing more mistakes on the ball from the defenders, creating more clear-cut chances when the Royals win possession.
Given Wycombe’s expected goals of 3.05 against Shrewsbury, it is expected that Joel Pereira will have a busy game, but that can be reduced by specific players triggering an early press.
The one player who is extremely good at this is Harvey Knibbs. Although he is currently being deployed in the so-called secondary number eight position, he is allowed free roam to go into any position he wants under Noel Hunt due to his amazing stamina when off the ball. Being able to win it high up the pitch would then allow runners such as Jayden Wareham to pounce on an easy pass played by him or another midfielder.
The one weakness of Reading is the constant need to restart the play by passing it back to Tyler Bindon. We haven’t seen this much when he hasn’t been on the pitch because Andy Yiadom has been filling in. Due to Yiadom predominantly being a full-back, he tends to always creep forward as much as he can.
This has helped Reading on the attack as it gives cover in the midfield, allowing Charlie Savage to join the attack. This is great against a team like Wycombe as they like to play a high block. The higher the defence is, the more people have to drop back to mark the attackers. This would mean that, once again, they have no outlet against a team that likes to overpower the midfield.
Wycombe’s game against Lincoln was completely different. A total of 54% possession and 11 shots meant they were able to play most of the game on cruise control. The key is to tire the players out before they even get a chance to attack.
If the players can keep it X-0 at half time, then they would have done well at that.
Against Lincoln, Wycombe’s goal was scored in the 66th minute and it had an xG of 0.74, meaning it was more likely to go in than it was to miss. If Reading are able to keep Wycombe from working their way into the box, then more will be taken, and more than likely go off target. Not every team can have a long-shot specialist like Lewis Wing.
But Wycombe do. Pop-shots can be allowed, as long as they’re not from Luke Leahy. He isn’t as good as Wing but my God he has a good shot on him. He will be one that both Chem Campbell and Kelvin Abrefa have to man-mark very tightly.
One thing that I do like about how Wycombe line up is that they change their formation to almost match their opponents. Playing a back three, beating Lincoln at their own game helped them in the long run and similarly they were able to create a lot of chances by matching Shrewsbury’s 4-2-3-1.
This means it’s likely they will match our 4-3-3, playing Gareth McCleary on one side and either Leahy or Xavier Simons on the other. If Simons plays then they are going out-and-out attack, trying to win the game by scoring as many goals as possible. If Leahy plays then they will sit back more on the left-hand side, focussing plays onto the right, utilising a long ball down to McCleary to use his pace to counter.
Both of the Reading full-backs need to have strong games in order to keep any combination of these players in check.
My lineup
Joel Pereira will start in goal. There is a potential that he will be a busy man and he may need to step up when the time is needed to cement the Royals in the playoff hopes.
The back four will consist of Abrefa, Yiadom, Bindon and Andre Garcia. Although I think Michael Stickland has been our best player in these past few games, a game like this calls for experience and Yiadom gives more of that in the team.
I think the midfield three will have a change in it for this week. Wing and Knibbs are key to keeping the defensive block and press respectively, but like the defence, someone with a bit of experience in big matches should play this one, so I am opting for Tom Carroll to join the duo in midfield.
The attack is also where I suggest a change. Kelvin Ehibhationhan hasn’t been all that recently and I think it’s time for him to have a break to try and return to how he lit up the season before his injury. In his place I suggest Adrian Akande to play alongside Chem Campbell and Jayden Wareham.
Score prediction: 1-1
Good luck to those going to the game, I have heard it may be the biggest crowd this season so far.
Come on you Royals!