NCAA Tournament Upset Picks: Use Odds To Guide Your Bracket Selections

Even if you haven’t watched a second of college basketball all season, there are certain things you can do or study to make the best possible picks you can for your office bracket pool.

Now, if you’re in an office filled with college hoops fanatics who all went to Power 5 schools and live for March, you can only do so much. But even if that is the case, you still want to put yourself in the best position possible, and one simple way to do so is to let the betting odds guide you.

It sounds like an overly simple method, but so many “casual” bracket fillers are going to look at two things that aren’t exactly helpful: seeding and record. As you dive into the actual game lines and spreads, though, you’ll see that not every 7 vs. 10 matchup is created equal.

There’s obviously no guarantee these plays work out in your favor (as evidenced one short year ago), but if you’re looking for some early-round plays to make (or landmines to avoid), here’s what we’ve got circled.

(All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Monday morning.)

WEST: (-2.5) No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
You have to start with the 12-5, right? The guy or gal who thinks they know it all will be the one on Monday or Tuesday morning at the water cooler asking you, “So, which 12-5 upset are you looking at?” It’s cliche at this point. If you’re hellbent on making it happen, Colorado State is the obvious decision here. The Rams are the higher-seeded team but are actually slight favorites. The metrics back it up, too; KenPom.com ranks Colorado State as the No. 42 team in the country, ahead of the 51st-ranked Tigers. Memphis also has injury issues with Tyrese Hunter still dealing with a foot problem. By the way: The other three 5-seeds are all favored. If you want another upset, though, UC San Diego is just a 2.5-point underdog vs. Michigan.

MIDWEST: (-8.5) Gonzaga vs. Georgia
It’s easy to just look at the 8-9 matchup and basically flip a coin, especially with a No. 1 seed all but guaranteed to be waiting in the second round. Points are at a premium, though, so don’t flip a coin on this one. Roll with the Zags, who are considerable 8.5-point favorites in the battle of Bulldogs. Going back to the KenPom, they’re ranked ninth in the entire country. There’s not anything higher than a 6-seed in the rest of the top 20. Top-seeded Houston is the favorite to come out of the Midwest, but it’s telling that Gonzaga has the third-shortest odds despite being the No. 8 seed. They’re certainly worth a look for a Sweet 16 run where they’re just +280 to survive the opening weekend.

EAST (+2) VCU vs. BYU
The 6-11 matchups will need to be revisited after the play-in games, but VCU should be a popular pick as the shortest underdog in that group right now. The Rams weren’t as battled-tested in the Atlantic 10 as BYU in the Big 12, but VCU did have eight wins against Quad 1 and 2 teams combined this season. Their only Quad 1 loss came at New Mexico, another tournament team. They come in hot after winning the A-10, and head coach Ryan Odom has impressive tournament experience, having led UMBC to the first-ever win for a No. 16 seed.

EAST: (-3.5) Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt
The 7-10 is also sometimes looked at as a throwaway pick given how tight these matchups have been, while many also just expect these clubs to be cannon fodder for No. 2 seeds in the second round. If the Gaels can get by Vandy here, they’re live for a Sweet 16 run. Surviving the Commodores would likely get Saint Mary’s another SEC matchup with 2-seed Alabama a 22.5-point favorite over No. 15 Robert Morris. Alabama isn’t great defensively, while the Gaels are known for their defensive intensity. A good defense in a potentially low-scoring game is an ingredient for an upset.

Ultimately, winning the bracket pool comes down to the Final Four and national championship more than those early games, at least assuming points are weighted more as the tournament goes on. You’ll have to navigate those waters yourself, but here are the top four favorites based on odds — not on seeding — for each region.

SOUTH
No. 1 Auburn (+100)
No. 2 Michigan State (+460)
No. 3 Iowa State (+550)
No. 4 Texas A&M (+1300)

WEST
No. 1 Florida (-125)
No. 3 Texas Tech (+500)
No. 2 St. John’s (+600)
No. 4 Maryland (+1100)

EAST
No. 1 Duke (-135)
No. 2 Alabama (+430)
No. 4 Arizona (+800)
No. 3 Wisconsin (+1100)

MIDWEST
No. 1 Houston (+140)
No. 2 Tennessee (+350)
No. 8 Gonzaga (+800)
No. 3 Kentucky (+800)