College football picks: Huskers can end 7-year bowl drought if they knock off No. 16 Indiana on road
The second half of the college football season is upon us, when many teams’ thoughts turn to qualifying for a bowl if not the College Football Playoff.
The usual suspects, and some new ones, are bidding for the 12 playoff spots. There are 70 more postseason openings for 35 non-playoff bowls.
Nine teams already have achieved the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility, and 21 five-win teams would join them with victories this week.
No team is more hungry than Nebraska, whose seven-season bowl drought is the longest among power conference teams. In the Cornhuskers’ heyday under Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne, pocket and poster-sized schedules were printed with a line at the bottom reserved for “bowl game” as if it were preordained. From 1969-2003, it was.
The Cornhuskers, whose only loss is to Illinois in overtime at home, haven’t been to a postseason game since the 2016 Music City Bowl. They have have six chances to end the program’s longest stretch without a bowl since 1955-61, and their first chance comes Saturday at unbeaten and No. 16 Indiana.
“It’s always a goal to go in and beat a ranked opponent,” Nebraska defensive lineman Ty Robinson said. “There’s going to come a time again when we’re those guys. We’re going to be ranked, and people are going to be coming for us. That’s the mentality we’ve been having this season. It’s time to stop being the hunter. Let’s be the hunted.”
The picks, with all games Saturday unless noted, and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (minus 3 1/2)
The Longhorns have a healthy Quinn Ewers and are 6-0 for the first time since 2009 as they go into only the third top-five matchup at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Georgia’s defense isn’t what it has been. Texas is favored to become the first team other than Alabama to beat the Bulldogs since 2020.
Pick: Texas 24-20.
No. 2 Oregon (minus 27 1/2) at Purdue
Ducks are coming off short rest after their one-point win over Ohio State in the first top-five matchup at Autzen Stadium. West Lafayette on a Friday night could be a trap some years. This isn’t one of them. Ducks have won 26 straight against unranked opponents.
Pick: Oregon 48-14.
No. 6 Miami (minus 4 1/2) at Louisville
The Hurricanes are coming off an open date following their frantic comeback win at California. National passing leader Cam Ward gets his yards in big chunks, and Louisville allowed six pass plays longer than 20 yards against Virginia last week.
Pick: Miami 35-28.
No. 7 Alabama (minus 3) at No. 11 Tennessee
The Crimson Tide haven’t been the same since their crazy win against Georgia, and the Volunteers haven’t been since SEC play started. One of these teams is due to break out. Bama’s Jalen Milroe has two touchdown passes and three interceptions over his last three games. The Vols’ Nico Iamaleava has gone two games without a TD pass.
Pick: Alabama 27-21.
No. 8 LSU (minus 3) at Arkansas
The Tigers have survived close calls against South Carolina and Mississippi, and they better be ready for another tight game in Fayetteville. The last four meetings have been decided by a total of 12 points, with LSU winning three of them.
Pick: LSU 30-24.
UCF at No. 9 Iowa State (minus 13 1/2)
The Cyclones have played strong second halves in back-to-back games to win going away against Baylor at home and West Virginia on the road. UCF’s offense is in disarray. The Knights have combined for 57 points during their three-game losing streak, and Arkansas transfer QB KJ Jefferson got benched last week against Cincinnati.
Pick: Iowa State 31-10.
Virginia (plus 21 1/2) at No. 10 Clemson
The Cade Klubnik-led Clemson offense has piled up yards and points aplenty the last five games, and there’s no reason to think the roll will end against the ACC’s 14th-ranked defense. The Tigers have nine takeaways and just one turnover over their last four games.
Pick: Clemson 42-24.
No. 12 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech (plus 11 1/2)
The Irish come in feeling good about their defense after it held Stanford to 87 yards passing and 200 total last week. They haven’t lost to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta since 1976. The game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, less than a mile from the Tech campus.
Pick: Notre Dame 30-21.
Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU (minus 9 1/2)
The surprising Cougars have won six of their last seven Friday night games and are out to avenge last year’s double-overtime road loss that sent Oklahoma State to the Big 12 championship game. The roles are reversed. The Cowboys would be on their first four-game losing streak since 2014 if they drop this one.
Pick: BYU 44-23.
No. 14 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (plus 15 1/2)
The Aggies are coming off an open date. Look for Le’Veon Moss, the SEC’s second-leading rusher at 101 yards per game, to pound away at the conference’s worst run defense. Mississippi State is playing its third straight game against a top-15 opponent.
Pick: Texas A&M 39-27.
Nebraska (plus 6 1/2) at No. 16 Indiana
Indiana’s 47.5 points per game are second only to Miami’s 47.7, Kurtis Rourke is the Big Ten’s best quarterback not named Dillon Gabriel, and the defense has been stout. The Cornhuskers are on the rise under Matt Rhule and looking for their first Top 25 road win since 2011.
Pick: Nebraska 28-27.
No. 17 Kansas State (minus 3) at West Virginia
Kansas State’s offense has started to find its groove the last two games against Colorado and Oklahoma State. Avery Johnson and Jayce Brown have connected on a combined 10 passes for 199 yards and three touchdowns, and DJ Giddens has run for 182 and 187 yards and a TD.
Pick: Kansas State 27-22.
Auburn at No. 19 Missouri (minus 4 1/2)
Never mind that Missouri hammered UMass on the road in a nonconference game last week. No one has forgotten its collapse at Texas A&M two weeks ago. Auburn has lost three straight and is tied for last in the country in turnover margin, at minus-11.
Pick: Missouri 37-24.
No. 21 SMU (minus 14 1/2) at Stanford
During a three-game win streak since their 18-15 loss to BYU, the Mustangs have scored 142 points, their versatile run game has averaged 5 yards per carry and dual-threat Kevin Jennings has been sharp as a passer. The Cardinal have been outscored 120-28 during their three-game losing streak.
Pick: SMU 42-21.
East Carolina at No. 23 Army (minus 15 1/2)
Army leads the nation in rushing at 370 yards per game. East Carolina allowed a season-high 311 yards on the ground in its last game against a Charlotte team that ranked 127th in rushing at the time.
Pick: Army 27-9.
No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois (plus 3)
The question is whether Illinois surrendering 40 points to Purdue over the third and fourth quarters at home last week was a one-off or a sign of trouble. The Illini won 50-49 in overtime and moved on. Michigan has lost just twice in Champaign since 1958.
Pick: Illinois 29-24.
Charlotte at No. 25 Navy (minus 17)
The Midshipmen are going for their first 6-0 start since 1979, their 218 points through five games are six more than their 12-game total last season and all 18 of their drives in the red zone have ended with touchdowns. The 49ers are looking for their fourth win, which would be their most since going 5-7 in 2021.
Pick: Navy 43-20.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 16-1; Against spread — 12-4.
Season: Straight-up — 113-30; Against spread — 75-67.
____
Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football