49ers vs. Seahawks picks: Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for NFL Week 6

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks both enter Thursday night’s game after disappointing losses as seven-point home favorites in Week 5.

However, while the 49ers can point the finger at themselves for blowing a 13-point lead to the division rival Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks have to grapple with the fact the New York Giants outplayed them from start to finish.

Now, Seattle is a 3.5-point home dog to the Niners, and the reality of that sobering last performance combined with recent injuries makes a Seahawks bounce-back tougher to trust.

Even with the Niners in the midst of a 1-3 stretch, they rank better than Seattle in both offensive and defensive expected points added per play in that stretch. Seattle’s defense has especially struggled over the last two weeks, allowing Jared Goff to pitch a perfect game in Week 4 before getting torched by Daniel Jones and the Giants without their top wide receiver.

Now, as the 49ers are getting healthy, with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back in the lineup, the Seahawks will be without starting cornerback Riq Woolen, and safety Julian Love is a game-time decision. It’s a lot to overcome. That’s why I’m laying the points with San Francisco in this one.

Prince’s Pick: 49ers -3.5

Geno Smith over 13.5 rushing yards

Through five games this season, Smith is already within nine rushing yards of his entire total in 15 games last year.

Thanks to a 7.3-yard average, he’s putting up some big numbers on the ground, including three games of 30-plus yards and a career-high 72 yards last week.

Zach Charbonnet over 29.5 rushing + receiving yards

Charbonnet has been over this number every single game this season, including the three games Kenneth Walker III started ahead of him.

I suspect he’ll get the bulk of this done through the air, as I expect the 49ers to eventually pull away and force Seattle into passing situations. But even that plays to Charbonnet’s favor as the pass-catching option in Seattle’s backfield. He eclipsed this line in receiving yards alone twice.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 47.5 receiving yards

Even with Seattle’s pass-happy game scripts of the last few weeks, Smith-Njigba is averaging just 40 yards since Week 3. He’s been over this total just twice all season.

I’m not exactly sure why we should expect him to pop for more yards while still competing with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for catches.

Deebo Samuel over 55.5 receiving yards

Samuel is coming off an underwhelming game against the Cardinals where he was held to just one catch for 11 yards. And he has just four catches on eight targets in two games since his return from a calf injury. But he should be closer to 100% now, and Samuel regularly torches the Seahawks.

Especially given Seattle’s injuries in the secondary, I’m expecting a big game from Samuel, who’s been over this number twice in four games.

Prince’s Parlay: +900 odds (BetMGM)