Why Josh Jacobs is the biggest steal in fantasy football drafts
The new starting running back of the Green Bay Packers should be much more popular in fantasy football.
Before “Let Russ Cook” circulated the interweb, fantasy football Twitter had its own call to action: “Free Aaron Jones.”
The former Green Bay Packers running back has been one of the NFL’s most efficient runners since he was drafted in 2017. Jones recorded 5.5 yards per carry in three of his first four seasons (for context, 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson had 5.5 yards per carry last year) and the only active back with a higher career mark than Jones (5.0) is Nick Chubb (5.3).
Jones was also central in Green Bay’s passing game. He earned 60-plus targets and yielded 350-plus receiving yards in four straight seasons from 2019-22.
He maxed out at 285 touches and a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns in 2019, but his three-down ability never quite translated to a top-tier workload. Jones has always been accompanied by another back. Jamaal Williams had at least 100 carries from 2017-20, and AJ Dillon had at least 150 from 2021-23.
That strategy was partly by design, as most teams seek “lightning and thunder” rotations to balance speed and power. Pairing Jones with a backfield mate was also out of necessity, though, as he’s sustained numerous lower-body injuries throughout his career.
The Packers asked Jones to take a pay cut last offseason, and he obliged. When the organization made the same request this year, Jones declined.
Rather than keep him on the books for $17.6 million against the salary cap in his age-30 season, Green Bay turned its attention to 26-year-old free agent Josh Jacobs. They signed him to a four-year, $48 million deal and released Jones, who was scooped up a day later by the division-rival Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers didn’t part ways with a beloved figure just for Jacobs to be a part-time player.
“I think the first thing that jumps off to me is just his play style,” coach Matt LaFleur said in March. “Like he is tough, hard-nosed. He can be a high-volume guy. Just studying him, I think there’s more out there for him in regards to the passing game, using him out of the backfield.”
Jacobs had a similar sentiment soon after signing. “I was telling [Lefleur] I feel like I want to catch it a little bit more. I feel like I didn’t get to show that as much as I would have liked, so that’s definitely something in the conversations we had.”
You may remember Jacobs as the lightning to Damien Harris’ thunder at Alabama a few years ago. However, since he was drafted 24th overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in 2019, he’s been one of the fiercest ball-carriers in the league.
In the past five seasons, Jacobs ranks second among all players in rushing attempts, yards, first downs, and touchdowns behind only Derrick Henry. He’s third in broken tackles behind Henry and David Montgomery.
Jacobs also ranks top-10 in targets, receptions and receiving yards among backs in that span, though he has middling efficiency and has yet to catch a touchdown. He may not be as involved or effective as Jones was in the passing game, but it’s not crazy to think Jacobs will set career-best marks as a pass-catcher after averaging less than 40 catches per year to date.
So why is he available at the 3/4 round turn in ESPN fantasy drafts?
Firstly, Jacobs hasn’t been a model of good health himself, as he’s dealt with shoulder, rib, quad, ankle, and toe ailments since entering the league. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 24 broken tackles from 2019-22 before registering 3.5 yards per carry and 10 broken tackles last year. Jacobs seems to be slowing down, and after Green Bay drafted USC’s MarShawn Lloyd, the common assumption is Lefleur will still deploy a committee.
“You guys know how I feel philosophically, I think you have to have multiple backs in this league,” Lefleur said at the same March presser. “The NFL season’s a marathon, and you need your best players healthy, especially at the end of the season.
“And then when, kinda like a season ago, when you’re back’s against the rope so to speak, then you kinda unleash it. You gotta do whatever you gotta do to win.”
A season ago, the Packers finished the 2023 regular season 3-0 to make the playoffs, won their Wild Card Round matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, then lost by three points to the San Francisco 49ers. Jones had at least 18 carries and 100 rushing yards in all five games.
Lefleur (and Mike McCarthy before him) didn’t want to overburden Jones with touches —especially between the tackles — due to his 208-pound build and correlating injury history. Hence rotating in Dillon for short-yardage work and not “freeing” Jones until the postseason was in peril.
Jacobs is not Jones. While the former brings his own durability concerns, injury hasn't prevented Jacobs from participating and producing in NFL games. He has the necessary physique (223 pounds) to handle workhorse volume. Jacobs has seen 250-plus touches in five straight seasons, compared to two such seasons since 2017 for Jones.
Meanwhile, Dillon was recently placed on season-ending injured reserve, and Lloyd is unlikely to be involved early after coughing up 11 fumbles on 325 college touches and sustaining a hamstring injury in a preseason game.
To answer for last season’s disappointment, it’s hard to imagine Jacobs was particularly motivated to perform. He held out of Raiders training camp and the preseason before agreeing to a reworked one-year deal rather than signing the franchise tender. Las Vegas’ third-all-time rushing leader was eager to leave, and now he’ll play for an offense that ranked third in EPA per play and fourth in success rate in the second half of 2023.
It seems that fantasy drafters are worried about Jacobs’ workload, but that’s exactly why Green Bay was interested in giving him more money than a stalwart in Jones.
“When you look at his body of work, his play style, his running style,” Lefeur said, “I think he’ll excel whether we run outside zone, the gap schemes he’s been super productive with, and like I was saying earlier, I think there’s some things that we can do with him in the pass game as well.”
He added in August, “I just get so excited that he can do it all.”
The Packers are replacing Jones’ speed and Dillon’s power with one player. Jacobs can execute any rushing concept and stay on the field as a blocker or receiver in passing situations. Lefleur may monitor his snap share, but he won’t give valuable touches to any other back on the roster.
Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022, and after one forgettable season, he has a chance to do it again. Workhorse backs in ascending offenses are rarely available after Round 2 of fantasy drafts.
Invest in Josh Jacobs now before his price goes up.