'WHY SO SLOW?' ARSENAL TRANSFER STRATEGY EXPLAINED
The transfer window is in full swing and from an Arsenal perspective, we've done pretty well so far.
Emile Smith Rowe has exited for a chubby fee, Mo Elneny is out, Mika Biereth fetched £4.5m, we've landed loan fees for Tavares and Sambi, and we still have 4-5 players who could hook more than £20m.
We've signed David Raya on a permanent deal, Calafiori has landed for £38m, and we're likely going to sign Mikel Merino for under £25m.
Some are bemoaning the slowness of the summer, and I've seen others state that we should sign anyone just to improve in certain areas because something is better than nothing.
That is not true, my friends. Old Arsenal would sign a body for the sake of it. New Arsenal is disciplined, hyper-focused on specific needs, and the technical department is under no pressure to add bodies for the sake of it. They know what they want and, for once, they're in a position to feel out the market before moving.
We have enough evidence to support this approach - we missed out on Vlahovic for £70m, didn’t spend in January, then signed Zinchenko and Jesus for the same money. We didn’t sign Fresneda in January 2023, then we signed Jurrien Timber. We didn’t sign Caicedo in the same month, then landed Declan, and the rest is history.
You want to talk about signing players for the sake of it? Wout Weghorst. Odion Ighalo. What about Casemiro for £400k a week on a 4 year deal? The ‘any body’ approach is what clubs do when they lack confidence. When they cave to the internet. It’s Mhki and Auba after signing Lacazette. It’s Lucas Perez and Takuma Asano.
So why am I so confident we can sit back? Well, our starting XI revolves around 14 or so players who will all be fit and raring to go for the first game of the season. We have no major injury issues, we have young players who will bounce back from summer tournaments, and some of our problem players had 2 months off, so they'll be super fresh. Wolves, Villa, and Brighton aren't easy games, but they're games we can handle without new recruits.
This matters in the current market for a number of reasons.
Everyone is skint.
The market is slow because clubs are petrified of breaching PSR. They are scrapping around trying to find deals, and the once unfashionable US-style trade is back in the mix as a viable option for clubs. Arsenal don't have suitors for their very suitable players because clubs are hoping that as the window goes on, bargains will start to appear.
Why does this matter to Arsenal? Because as the window wears on, there will be opportunities for us to potentially trade for targets we want at Arsenal. Maybe Crystal Palace need a striker and Arsenal might want Eze. That could present an opportunity for both parties if Marseille continue to offer pennies. Wolves have a player we really want, and we know they like Ramsdale and could need a right-sided winger to replace the one we could take.
One-Year-Left-On-The-Deal Players
We're looking at strikers and wingers. It's crucial we land at least one of those positions, and I'd imagine the priority for Arsenal is cover for a very beaten-up Bukayo Saka. The club will look for someone that is explosive or at least a player who can give us some world-class bang when we need it. Some of the names that could fulfil those needs have one year left on their deal.
- Leroy Sane - 1 year
- Federico Chiesa - 1 year
- Ivan Toney - 1 year
As the window wears on and those players dig their heels in, their prices will start to drop, and their clubs' resolve to keep them might be tested. Remember, we're living in a world where clubs are low on cash, and letting assets leave on free transfers is NOT good business.
… and if you don’t mind, let’s take a little detour here to Liverpool.
They have Mo Salah, Trent AA, and VVD heading into the last year of their deals. The older players both want that sweet Saudi money. The PIF fund hasn’t really kicked into action so far this window, but they will, and they might offer Liverpool late money again.
Do they take it and destroy Arne Slot’s first season? Or does an ownership group that wants out allow the players to run out their deals? Remember, this is the club that turned down £150m for Salah last season. They are about to have a VERY tough decision to make.
This is just another example of how clubs are looking at this window and why things are moving slowly.
Bloated Squad Bloodletting
Certain teams don't seem to play by the same financial rules as the rest of Europe, and those teams will enter the end of the transfer window after spending money they don’t have, with very bloated squads.
Barcelona and Madrid will have too many wingers. In those rich squads, having squads so big you have to delist players is not the best move. I would imagine that instead of pulling levers, they’ll have a fire sale of players. We have been part of those events in the past - it’s how we landed Mesut Ozil. Raphinha could end up with very few minutes this season if Barca activate a wide player. I'm struggling to see the point of Rodrygo at this moment in time. This is going to be an issue at clubs like PSG as well.
When teams know you need to sell, it’s hard to drive a big fee, especially in a market that is struggling for liquidity.
So to sum this all up - don’t see the lack of movement on a forward player as indecision. It’s the opposite. We’re not a one-option kind of club these days. The manager and Edu will know exactly what they want in the various positions, and there will be plans A, B, C, D, E, F, and G. I’d imagine the sentiment won’t be far off where we’ve landed here - wait it out, hold your nerve, and watch more and more players come into contention for better prices.
I’d also keep in mind that the club might not be finished when it comes to selling players. They are going to be extremely pragmatic about the limitations of certain players when it comes to talent and availability. They would absolutely sell Gabriel Jesus if the opportunity arose; don’t buy into the schtick that they think he’s the best 9 in the world - they were extremely close to nullifying his minutes with Sesko. He’s injury-prone and doesn’t score goals; if someone comes in with £40 million, he’ll be out. Saudi either isn’t going to spend like crazy this summer, or they’re going to come in hot at the end of the window like they did last season - Partey will be out the door if we get a good bid for him. Zinchenko, Kiwior, Ramsdale, Reiss, and Eddie could all be sold or used as trading pawns… and the best bit? None of it matters to our title hopes.
So my advice to you? Sit back, take it easy, and let the good times roll.
P.S. Just read a story about Edu being the target of the Forest owners to be the CEO of two clubs. That would be very, very amusing. That story is either to support him getting a new deal and more power… or it’s a wildly bad idea.