Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

Oklahoma is having a terrible January, losing nine of its ten games played in the month. Cleveland is the opposite, picking up seven wins in its ten games through January. Additionally, tonight’s game will be the Thunder’s second in as many nights. The two teams faced each other as recently as January 15, with the Cavs winning by only five points.

The Thunder are second-last in the Western Conference and have lost four straight. They’re coming off a 121-98 loss to the Hornets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a game-high 29 points in the losing effort.

Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team in scoring, averaging 22.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.7 rebounds. Friday’s game saw the return of Kenrich Williams after missing five games. Derrick Favors has missed the last three games. He missed the first two due to back soreness but despite not seeing action was available for yesterday’s game.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are fifth in the Eastern Conference and have won five of their past six games. Cleveland is coming off a 117-104 loss to the Bulls. The loss ended a five-game winning streak. Lauri Markkanen has a team-high 28 points in the loss.

Darius Garland leads the Cavs in scoring, averaging 19.8 points, eight assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals a game. Lamar Stevens has missed two games with knee soreness but is listed as probable. Rajon Rondo is listed as questionable and has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury. Rondo has only played three games for the Cavs since being acquired from the Lakers.

Cleveland is 20th in NBA scoring, averaging 107.5 points per game, while Oklahoma is last in the league with 100.6. Both teams are much better on the opposite side of the court. The Cavaliers are third in opponent scoring, allowing only 102.8 points per game, while the Thunder are 14th with 108.1. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 208.5, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 218.

Against the spread, Oklahoma is 28-16-1 and 14-9 on the road, while Cleveland is 29-15-2 and 14-6-1 at home. Furthermore, the Cavs are 10-2-1 ATS in their past 13 home games.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model thinks there is value with the Thunder in this matchup. According to the model, Oklahoma has a 28.90 percent chance of winning, a fair Moneyline of +246, and an expected point margin of -6.5. Compare that to Fanduel Sportsbook, which has the Thunder at +610 on the Moneyline and +12.5 on the spread.

Based on the potential value payout, the model recommends Oklahoma’s Moneyline and spread, giving both wagers five-star ratings. It also likes the over, showing that bet as a five-star rating as well.