Recession odds are rising as Trump’s trade war escalates, Goldman Sachs says | CNN Business

Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York. Goldman Sachs now sees a 35% chance of recession within 12 months due to President Donald Trump's escalating trade war. The bank increased its inflation estimate and slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1%. Consumer confidence has plunged with many Americans expecting unemployment to rise amid 32-year high inflation expectations. Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs across all trading partners, not just a select group of countries. Goldman Sachs now expects three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year to aid the weakening economy. This summary was AI-generated and reviewed by CNN editors. CNN — The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation est...