Canterbury Park First Half in Review and the ROI All-Stars

by ‘The Oracle’ Bruce Meyer

We are at the halfway point of the 2025 Canterbury Park live racing season.  Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2025.  The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds:       

As we have discussed in previous articles, the percentage of winning favorites has been increasing nationally over the years, from an historical average of 33% three decades ago, to the current 38% in 2025.

Favorites are winning 42% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2025.  This is four percentage points higher than the national average for 2025, and ten percentage points above the first half results in the 2024 Canterbury meet.  While chaos ruled the track a year ago, this year has yielded a more formful scenario.  My guess is that jockey Harry Hernandez returning to Canterbury Park has given fans a roadmap to selecting winners, and HH has not disappointed as he is leading the jockey standings by 13 wins, and has won with 53% of his horses that were favored at post time (23/43).

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track.  This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 35% rate compared to 46% winning favorites on the dirt.  The general rule of thumb that favorites win more often on the main track than on the turf should hold true for the remainder of the meet.  The strongest category for winning favorites is the allowance/stakes races, where the favorites are winning 49% of the time (36/74)

Regarding extreme longshots, there have been six 20-1 and up winners this year.  Big longshots are elusive at Canterbury Park, as 204 horses have gone to post at greater than 20-1 odds with only 6 winning.  That’s a win percentage from that sample of just 3%.

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, Harry Hernandez holds a 13-win lead over Alonzo Quinonez at the halfway point with 32 wins compared to 19 for Quinonez.  However, Harry is a

known quantity at Canterbury Park and his horses are heavily backed at the windows.  From an ROI perspective, Harry is returning $0.78 for every dollar wagered on his horses.

The All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was easily Constantino Roman.  Roman is currently fifth in the standings with 11 wins from 77 mounts (14%), and he is returning $1.78 for every dollar wagered on his mounts.  Roman has been aboard two of the longshot winners mentioned above, scoring at 31-1 on June 11 at 7-furlongs on the main track aboard Coach Sam P for Ron Westerman, and a week later on June 18 at 29-1 on the turf with Rollin Blackout trained by Nancy Sheehan.  This is not to suggest that something like that is likely to repeat, but it is a reminder that the longshot winners are typically ridden by the jockeys that are not riding for the leading trainers, or dominating the standings from a win perspective.  Finding these hidden gems can make ones wagering week, month, or perhaps even year.

The Trainers:

 

Jose Silva, Jr. currently holds a slim lead in the trainer standings with 16 wins so far this season from 86 starters.  He’s also been no secret to the betting public, as his runners are heavily backed at the windows.  Silva, Jr. is returning only $0.69 per dollar invested on his runners this year.

The top trainer from an ROI perspective during the first half was Tim Padilla, with a record of 14 wins from 48 starters and an ROI of $1.51 per dollar wagered. All-Star Padilla (pictured above with Roman) was strong on both turf and dirt, with 10 winners on the main track and 4 on the turf.  Padilla’s best longshot winner this meet was on June 28 when he trained turf runner Drama Chorus to a Stakes win with Alonzo Quinonez aboard.

 

 

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective.  Good luck in the second half of the meet!  As always, good luck when playing the 10% takeout *Pick 5 wagers at Canterbury Park.

About the Author:  Bruce Meyer is a seven-time Canterbury Park Handicapper of the Year. He provides selections for Canterbury Park on X and on the Canterbury live broadcast.

*Editor’s Note: Racing officials have altered the positioning of the Pick 5 wager so that it now will include the final five thoroughbred races each day. Previously it began with the second race. Canterbury’s 10 percent takeout on the Pick 5 wager is an industry low.

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