Diving into Trea Turner’s lack of power so far in 2025

Last October, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson both said they wanted to see Philadelphia’s offense adjust its collective approach at the plate, focusing less on trying to pull the ball and being OK with hitting it to other parts of the field instead.

So far this year, the Phillies’ batted-ball profile has changed. They’re pulling the ball 37.5% of the time, according to Statcast. That ranks 20th in the majors. Last season, they were 13th with a 38.5% pull rate. As a lineup, they’re hitting the ball up the middle more (37.3%, 10th) when compared to a season ago (35.5%, 26th), and hitting to the opposite field a little less (25.2%, 12th). In 2024, they went to the opposite field at a 26% clip, second-highest in baseball.

The thought was getting away from pulling the ball as much would help the club command the strike zone better. It has. The Phillies chased pitches at a 30.3% rate last year. This year, that number is 27.8%.

One particular hitter whose batted-ball profile and approach has drastically changed is Trea Turner’s. The middle infielder is hitting .299 with a .738 OPS in 41 games. He’s chasing less and walking more. It’s helped him become the player his manager wants him to be.

Thomson recently said he talked with Turner before the start of the season, telling his shortstop he wants him to worry most about getting on base, stealing bags and scoring runs. Nothing else is more important. Not even hitting for power.

Turner is listening to his manager. He’s getting on base more, at a .361 clip this year compared to last year’s .338. He has 10 steals and 26 runs, pacing 38 stolen bases and 98 runs for the year. Those would be the highest and second-highest totals of Turner’s Phillies tenure.

While he’s doing what his manager wants, Turner’s slugging percentage (.377) is way down, ranking 114th among 164 qualified hitters. He slugged .469 last year, 29th in the majors.

A reason for the dip in Turner’s power production could be tied to his altered batted-ball profile. He’s pulling the ball less this year, especially in the air; hitting for power and pull rate correlate.

Since 2021, pulled balls have produced a .687 slugging percentage in the majors, per Statcast. Pulled balls in the air have a 1.235 slugging percentage over that same period. For comparison, balls not pulled have a slugging percentage of .450 since the start of 2021. Non-pulled balls in the air, .536.

Pulling the ball leads to more power. So does hitting it in the air. Combining those two — pulling the ball in the air — is the best way to hit for power. Turner is doing less of that this year.

Turner’s pull rate is 34.6%, down a good amount from 43.6% in 2024. Of his batted balls last year, he pulled 17.9% in the air. That same number is 13.5% this year, the lowest of Turner’s career.

With Turner pulling the ball less, he’s staying up the middle more. It’s where most of the balls he’s put in play have gone. Turner is hitting the ball up the middle at a 44.4% clip so far, the highest mark of his career. He’s also hitting more balls on the ground. His ground-ball rate last year was 47.1%. This year, it’s 50.4%.

Ground balls aren’t ideal for hitters. They lead to lower averages and less power production. Over the last four-plus seasons, batters are hitting .245 with a .269 slugging percentage on grounders. Balls in the air have produced a .391 average and a .751 slugging percentage.

But even though Turner’s lower pull rate and higher ground-ball rate have led to less slug, the latter hasn’t been all that bad. Where a hitter places a ground ball matters. And Turner is placing his where hitters tend to find more success.

Most of the balls Turner’s put in play on the ground (24.1%) have been hit up the middle this season. Another 5.3% have gone the other way. Those two batted-ball types — ground balls up the middle or to the opposite field — are the most successful of their kind.

Since 2021, ground balls up the middle have produced a .247 batting average. Grounders the other way, .413. Pulled ground balls have produced just a .200 average since 2021.

Seven weeks in, Turner hasn’t been as good a hitter this year as he was last year. His current 111 wRC+ is down from last season’s 124 mark. He’s on pace for 27 doubles — that’s two more than last year — but just eight home runs, which would be a career low.

Over his last 81 plate appearances, Turner has been hitting for a bit more power. He’s at a .436 slugging percentage with three doubles and a home run. His pull percentage in that sample is 34.4%. His ground-ball rate, 57.8%. Turner went 2-for-12 this week in the Phillies’ series against the Cardinals. Both hits were singles. He pulled one ball in nine batted-ball events.

Turner’s seven-week power outage to start 2025 could be a weird stretch. It happens. But seven weeks isn’t a small sample. Maybe his different batted-ball profile and approach are here to stay. If that’s the case, by season’s end, Turner’s power totals may not be where we’re used to seeing.