[DECODED] Diving into the minds of Filipino voters in 2025 polls
The 2025 midterm elections mark the fifth election I’ll be covering as a journalist. My first was the 2013 elections, which coincidentally was the first time that I was eligible to vote. As an intern for Rappler then, one of my key tasks was to track survey results about senatorial candidates. It was my early exposure to the intersection of data and democracy.
Today, almost 12 years later and as lead editorial researcher, I find myself once again analyzing voter sentiments and election trends, but now with a deeper understanding of how these numbers shape narratives and influence national decisions.
We turn to surveys to get a sense of where the public stands. For elections, these numbers give us an idea of how different candidates are faring in the race. But as crucial as these rankings are, they don’t tell the full story. Behind every response is a voter with personal experiences, priorities, and concerns — each shaped by their environment, beliefs, and everyday struggles.
This was the idea that fueled data forensics firm Nerve and Rappler in tracking voter preferences for the 2025 senatorial elections. We wanted to understand the why behind the numbers to help us answer the following questions: What influences a person’s choice of candidates? What national issues weigh most heavily on voters’ minds? And ultimately, what kind of legislators do they think can help build a better Philippines?
To get to the heart of these questions, we designed a survey that went beyond just asking who people plan to vote for and instead asked what matters to them. This allowed us to take a closer look at the characteristics, values, and sentiments that shape voter behavior, which gave us a more nuanced view of how the respondents think.
The survey was conducted on the Rappler website from September 19 to 30, 2024 — before the filing of certificates of candidacy in October. The 2,700 respondents are Rappler readers who are eligible voters for the 2025 elections.
The results showed that Rappler readers view corruption, inflation, and education as “most important concerns for the Philippines.” The best way for the Senate to address the issue of corruption, they said, was to ensure transparency in government transactions, as well as think of more effective laws and penalties.
We also found that they believe honesty and integrity are more important qualities for a Filipino senator to possess over their respective party affiliation or even charisma. Someone who wants to get a Senate seat should also have a solid track record, a set of accomplishments, and good advocacy.
One feature that sets the Nerve survey apart from other polls is its unique approach to grouping respondents. Instead of relying solely on traditional demographics, Nerve clustered participants based on two key factors: the similarity of their responses within a group and the contrast between groups. This method allowed the team to identify distinct voter segments — psychographic cohorts — who share closely aligned beliefs and political views.
Over the past few months, my fellow researcher James Patrick Cruz also monitored social media trends and analyzed discussions about senatorial candidates across social media platforms and online news.
He tried to make sense of the political landscape and current events, examining how they shape the online narratives surrounding the candidates. For example, in his story covering online discussions from October 1 to November 30, 2024, he found that senators Bato dela Rosa and Bong Go are haunted by the ghosts of Rodrigo Duterte’s violent war on drugs.
You can read other stories related to this here:
- [DECODED] From gold medals to scandals: Who’s hot in the 2025 Senate race?
- [DECODED] Dr. Willie Ong’s cancer disclosure: Boost or blow to his Senate campaign?
- [DECODED] What the Pepsi Paloma movie could mean for Tito Sotto’s Senate bid
These insights helped us not just track an election, but also explore the bigger forces that drive voter behavior and the concerns that shape a citizen’s politics. If you’re interested to know more about our work, you can reach out to hello@thenerve.co. Elections, after all, aren’t just about politicians but also about people. – Rappler.com
The Nerve is a data forensics company that enables changemakers to navigate real-world trends and issues through narrative and network investigations. Taking the best of human and machine, we enable partners to unlock powerful insights that shape informed decisions. Composed of a team of data scientists, strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to deliver data with real-world impact.