M's Offseason Plan - How to Artfully Blow it Up

I've always wanted to post one of these every year because I'm a fan of getting yelled at in the comments section. Every day I wait Dipoto makes another move so here goes nothing.

I've talked myself into a complete overhaul of the Mariners roster but also the idea that they won't completely bottom out like the Astros recent re-build. With that in mind this year's off-season has the potential to be the most exciting frightening in recent memory. Before diving into the moves a few notes:

1) We're not signing Harper or Machado. Payroll is staying under $162M.

2) I'm not an advocate for selling low on players so Dee and Seager are staying put.

3) Felix is ours and you can't have afford him. We're stuck with Felix and Cano.

4) The goal is to compete as early as 2021 so the big pieces need to be MLB ready or close.

5) Projecting trades is a futile effort and other teams may feel some of these names are untouchable but we gotta start somewhere and you know JeDi is manning those phones.

6) I didn't think we'd trade Zunino but mostly because I didn't think we'd find enough value to move him. I was wrong and Mallex is good enough value. Rays are smart though they know what they're getting defensively. Mallex fits my offseason plan just fine.

7) This morning I had us trading Gamel for a backup middle infielder (Richie Martin because Gamel was meant to be a 3 win corner outfielder for the A's). Because JeDi never sleeps and we signed Dylan Moore for that role I have us trading Gamel for a future back end of the rotation starter who could contribute soon (with the A's still).

Onto the trades:

1) Diaz to the Dodgers for Alex Verdugo, Will Smith, and two lower level prospects. This was the first trade I came up with for Diaz and I keep going back to it. Diaz nets a similar return to the Aroldis deal when Gleyber was a top 25 prospect. The Dodgers make this deal because they are a World Series caliber team already and a Diaz/Kenley 1-2 punch in the playoffs would be a huge upgrade. The Mariners make this deal because Diaz nets a big return and you get a starter in RF, MLB ready catcher, and some minor league depth. But we already have an all star in RF you say? Onto move #2.

2) Haniger to the Nats for Carter Kieboom and two lower level prospects. I really wanted to project Haniger to the Braves for their prospect riches and nothing would be funnier than re-acquiring Gohara and Alex Jackson but I'm sticking with my first thought and having the Nationals trade for Bryce Harper's replacement who quietly outperformed Harper last year. The Nats aren't going to overpay with the Adam Eaton deal a second time but Kieboom is a legitimate top 25 prospect who is blocked for the near future. He instantly becomes our SS/3B of the future.

3) Paxton to the Cubs for Ian Happ, Adbert Alzolay and two lower level prospects. There's a lot of talk around Paxton and rightfully so. He has 2 years of control and is a top of the rotation starter. The trade comparison for me is the Gerritt Cole deal which lacked a top 25 prospect but netted the Pirates 2 MLB ready players. Happ becomes our Zobrist and starts at LF and backs up every other position except for SS. Alzolay can be ready for the rotation as early as 2019 with good command and fly ball tendencies that suit Safeco Field and our new OF defense well. Paxton joins a crowded Cubs rotation but is immediately their #1 starter and the health of Darvish will always be in question. This is a move a World Series contender can afford to make. I also like the idea of Paxton to the Padres but would want Urias in return and don't see them making that deal (unless we're talking blockbuster with Segura included which is a little too out there for me). The Yankees seem to be hot on the Paxton idea and a Justus Sheffield package is intriguing but I prefer the Cubs trade.

4) Gamel to the A's for Richie Martin Parker Dunshee. The Mariners need cost controlled pitching and Dunshee fits the mold with a low BB/9 and workhorse pedigree (150.2 IP last year after 4 years at Wake Forest). Gamel gets replaced on the Mariners bench with Braden Bishop who balances out the lineup better as a righty.

I believe with projected arbitration amounts this would put the Mariners around $138M in payroll leaving $24M for free agency. For free agency the priorities are no multi year deals, and look for upside that could possibly be traded at the deadline. Here's the best I could come up with:

LHP - Brett Anderson - 1 year $7.5 Million (slides into the rotation as the 5th starter in hopes to become a trade deadline candidate)

C - Martin Maldonado - 1 year $6 Million (best defensive backup catcher on the market. If you believe in mentoring he'd be a good one for Will Smith)

RHP - Carson Smith - 1 year $2 Million (sure why not)

RHP - Kelvin Herrera - 1 year $8.5 Million (trade deadline candidate)

After trades the 2019 roster looks like this with everyone's projected WAR:

C - Maldonado (RH) - 1.0

1B - Cano (LH) - 3.0

2B - Dee (LH) - 1.5

3B - Seager (LH) - 2.7

SS - Segura (RH) - 2.6

LF - Happ (Switch) - 1.6

CF - Mallex (LH) - 1.8

RF - Verdugo (LH) - 1.5*

DH - Vogey (LH) - 1.4

Bench - Healy (RH) - 0.5, Will Smith (RH) - 0.5*, Braden Bishop (RH) - 0.5*, Dylan Moore (RH) - 0.0*

SP1 - Marco (LHP) - 2.1

SP2 - Leake (RHP) - 1.5

SP3 - LeBlanc (LHP) - 0.8

SP4 - Felix (RHP) - 0.9

SP5 - Brett Anderson (LHP) - 1.1

Bullpen - Colome (RHP) - 0.6, Herrera (RHP) - 0.1, Nicasio (RHP) - 0.3, Smith (RHP) - 0.1, Pazos (LHP) - 0.2, Lawrence (RHP) - 0.2, Elias (LHP) - 0.2

* = assumed WAR with playing time adjusted

Some notes about this roster:

1) This offense projects to 18.6 WAR. This would have ranked 16th last year. The Mariners offense ranked 16th last year at 18.2 WAR.

2) The pitching projects to 8.1 WAR. This would have ranked 25th last year.

3) WAR projections tend to be conservative on younger players and bullpen pitchers. This roster won't be a playoff team but they have some upside to keep them away from 100 losses.