Diving a bit deeper into the Royals' hitting with Statcast data

The chart below summarizes the statcast data () detailing the batted balls in play of Royals' players in 2017. Specifically, it details the average exit velocity, average launch angle, expected batting average, actual batting average, expected wOBA, actual wOBA, the difference between expected and actual batting average, and the difference between expected and actual wOBA.

Player	Avg. Velo.	Avg. Angle	Expec. BA	Actual BA	Expec. wOBA	Actual wOBA	xwOBA -wOBA	xBABIP- BABIP
Salvador Perez	89.46	21.13	.340	.339	.427	.408	-.019	.000
Brandon Moss	88.38	17.04	.332	.301	.424	.387	-.038	-.031
Jorge Bonifacio	89.29	14.17	.356	.353	.424	.415	-.010	-.004
Mike Moustakas	87.72	16.77	.317	.325	.388	.415	.027	.007
Eric Hosmer	89.80	3.36	.348	.361	.385	.393	.008	.013
Lorenzo Cain	88.69	10.17	.325	.328	.343	.358	.015	.002
Whit Merrifield	87.74	15.35	.299	.330	.341	.367	.026	.031
Jorge Soler	88.86	19.32	.288	.255	.341	.301	-.040	-.034
Raul Mondesi	78.65	1.23	.291	.148	.339	.174	-.165	-.143
Paulo Orlando	85.97	19.20	.330	.172	.329	.155	-.174	-.158
Alex Gordon	86.59	11.55	.288	.235	.327	.252	-.075	-.052
Ramon Torres	85.01	8.43	.326	.407	.314	.406	.091	.081
Drew Butera	87.06	18.79	.265	.278	.283	.317	.034	.013
Alcides Escobar	82.91	14.38	.262	.272	.279	.278	-.001	.010

Now, first a reminder - this table reflects the statcast data for only balls put into play. A player's complete wOBA can be quite different once you factor in strikeouts and walks. Also, the batting average will be different than BABIP since this table will include homeruns. Lastly, this is half a season of data - it's probably not stabilized yet, but there likely is more predictive value to it than many other stats. (for further reading, go here:)

So, here are some of my quick player-by-player takeaways:

Salvador Perez is hitting the ball in the air a lot, and an average launch angle above 20 degrees is usually not ideal, but it can work if you're hitting the ball really hard, which Perez is doing.

Brandon Moss is hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball high, albeit not as high as Perez. He's not hitting it enough, though, as the batted ball data hides the fact that he's striking out 34% of the time. His total numbers would look a lot better if Moss had better luck, and Statcast thinks he's been pretty unlucky. But Moss needs to stop pulling the ball on the ground, and start hitting it over the defense or around the defense, if he wants better luck

Jorge Bonifacio's numbers are legit. In fact, Statcast thinks he may be getting a bit unlucky. He hits the ball hard and he hits a lot of line drives. He has more than his fair share of pop-ups and strikeouts, but neither is out of control, and his slightly better than average walk rate helps compensate. Whether he can sustain his good hitting as the league adjusts to him is another question, but it's hard to find any glaring issues with his bat so far.

Mike Moustakas has committed to hitting it over the defense, and it's working, if just barely. He's hitting the ball in the air, and he's hitting it hard. The only problem is he's not really hitting it that hard. He's been lucky according to statcast, with his actual wOBA outpacing his expected wOBA by about 27 points. He might regress a bit in the 2nd half, but, even then, he should still be quite productive.

Eric Hosmer hits the ball harder than any other regular Royals player. He also hits the ball lower than any other regular. Hosmer could almost certainly increase his production if he start hitting the ball 5 to 10 degrees higher, but he might just be unable to do that. As is, Hosmer is an above average hitter by hitting the ball hard and low, while walking at an average rate, and striking out at a below average rate.

Lorenzo Cain is a bit of Eric Hosmer lite. He hits it lower and harder than the average hitter in the American League, but not nearly as extreme as Hosmer. This leads to a slightly higher batting average but slightly lower wOBA than average. Add in his slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates, and he gets back to slightly above-average as a whole.

Whit Merrifield, simply put, is performing better than anyone thought he should, including the statcast data. His launch angle is fine if he can keep hitting the ball harder than average, while also keeping the strikeouts down. But, there isn't much margin for error when you hit the ball in the air, and he could probably benefit from hitting the ball a bit lower and utilizing his speed more. He's the most obvious outperformer on the team (beating both his expected BA and wOBA by about 30 points), but his speed may be helping him do so (likewise for Cain and Hosmer).

Jorge Soler, like Brandon Moss above, appears to be a bit unlucky, as his expected wOBA is the same as Merrifield's, but his actual wOBA is about 66 points lower. Of course, Soler's 33% K rate means that he'll have to hit the ball exceptionally well when he does put it in play to balance out his inability to hit the ball almost a third of the time. The exit velocity is good (4th best on the team) and the average launch angle is acceptable (for someone who hits the ball as hard as Soler). But Soler needs to avoid bad contact - he's popping the ball up way too much (22% of his contact results in pop-ups launch at 47 degrees or higher - which become hits about once in every 100 chances), while he's hitting choppers too often too (14% of his contact results in grounders at -15.6 degrees or lower - which become hits about once in every 10 chances). So, there may be some bad luck, but Soler is simply not hitting enough balls in play, and the balls that he is hitting in play are not hit well enough.

Raul Mondesi did not hit the ball. Like, even when he put the ball in play (which was not that often), it was hit about as hard as a Jason Vargas changeup. Statcast thinks he could actually put up decent numbers if he hit like this (without all the strikeouts), but I have doubts about that, and I wonder if Mondesi just found a hole in the matrix - the kind you don't want to find yourself in.

Paulo Orlando may be worth another look in 2018. Statcast thinks he got unlucky with the Royals in 2017. Though, like the three other big underperformers we've seen so far (Mondesi, Soler, and Moss), he possesses a strikeout rate of over 30% which leaves little room for error, and probably suggests that maybe there are bigger problems that just bad BABIP luck.

Alex Gordon is the last of the Royals' underperformers, and he's the only one without a K% over 30%. Gordon's launch angle looks good, but his exit velocity is worrisome. It's not terrible, but it's below league average, and it makes it difficult for him to hit it over outfielder's heads on a regular basis. That leaves him with the option of hitting it in between the fielders, but his pull rate (42.2% over his career, 43.5% in 2017) means that he's gonna be facing a lot of shifts, and it takes hard contact to get through shifts. So, unless Gordon figures out how to hit it a lot harder, or a lot more to the opposite field, Gordon is gonna have issues.

Ramon Torres is making contact, drawing walks, and letting the BABIP fairy do the rest. Despite hitting the ball softer than anyone other than Escobar or Mondesi, Torres' actual wOBA on balls in play is near the top of the team. He's starting to come back down to earth in the last few games, and Statcast thinks he's gonna keep regressing.

Drew Butera is a backup catcher who hits like one.

Alcides Escobar is by far the worst Royals' regular in terms of exit velocity and the fact that he's trying to lift the ball, instead of hitting it on the ground (like, lets say Mondesi), is destroying his stats. He needs to either take about 10 degrees of loft off his batted balls, or he needs to start hitting the ball A LOT harder. Because, if he keeps trying to hit for power like Bonifacio or Merrifield, without the ability to, ya know, actually hit the ball with power, he's gonna (continue to) be one of the worst hitters in the league.