Caruana and Ding are his picks.
(Originally posted yesterday, here. Please subscribe at my Substack blog, where my posts will be published first.)
No shock there: the conventional wisdom is conventional wisdom for a reason. It’s not surprising that Magnus Carlsen agrees with the betting favorites, Fabiano Caruana and Ding Liren. There are some (mild) surprises in his assessments of the rest of the field. He places Alireza Firouzja and Ian Nepomniachtchi in the “dark horse” category; players who are underdogs but with a real chance of winning the tournament.
The other four, he gives little-to-no chance. He thinks Richard Rapport has a very slight chance, while he thinks Hikaru Nakamura “will probably have a decent event”, but not decent enough for a “real chance”. And Jan-Krzysztof Duda and Teimour Radjabov? No shot.