Scientists Say Fireball-Causing Asteroid Narrowly Missed Earth

Astronomers say a recently-discovered asteroid nearly landed on Earth, and that it could have caused serious damage if it were to make landfall on the planet.

The European Space Agency says the asteroid flew over Antartica just before 9 PM ET on September 30. The asteroid was only 266 miles above Earth's surface - a number astronomers believe to be the second-closest flyby ever recorded.

"This is a similar altitude to the orbit of the International Space Station, and one of the closest approaches ever recorded," the ESA said on social media.

The asteroid is known as "2025 TF" and is estimated between 3 and 10 feet wide. The asteroid itself would not have posed an immediate threat, but the agency says that doesn't mean it was harmless.

Asteroids of this size can "produce fireballs if they strike Earth’s atmosphere, and may result in the discovery of small meteorites on the ground," the ESA says.

Potential Impacts Recorded Elsewhere

The closest approach on record took place five years ago. "2020 VT4" flew over the ocean at an altitude of around 230 miles. The Near-Earth Objects Coordination Center referred to this event as a "remarkably close miss," given the extremely low altitude and likelihood of the asteroid entering the atmosphere.

A massive asteroid was discovered in 2024, and scientists believe that it has a chance to hit the moon. 2024 YR4 has been described as large enough to destroy an entire city, and initially alarmed scientists when it was discovered due to a non-zero chance of hitting Earth.

That's no longer a concern after its path has been charted, but the 300-foot asteroid still sits at around a 4.3% chance to hit the moon. Impact with the moon of that magnitude could disrupt its orbit, and it may also send debris that could threaten satellites in our atmosphere.

How Was the Asteroid Spotted?

2025 TF was first spotted by the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey hours after it flew by the planet. The Catalina Sky Survey is "fully dedicated to discover and track near-Earth objects (NEOs)" in accordance with Congressional mandates.

Those mandates dictate that at least 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters are catalogued, as some of them could be potentially hazardous to the planet.

European astronomers then observed 2025 TF using the Las Cumbres Observatory telescope in Australia. The LCO consists of a network of 25 telescopes stationed around the planet, all working in tandem as a single instrument.

"Tracking down a metre-scale object in the vast darkness of space at a time when its location is still uncertain is an impressive feat," the ESA said in its announcement.