Predictions: Chisora-Parker, Taylor-Jonas, Bivol-Richards
We’ve got two world title fights and a heavyweight main event to pick.
Derek Chisora takes on Joseph Parker, Katie Taylor defends her lightweight crown against Natasha Jonas, and Dmitry Bivol puts his light heavyweight belt up against Craig Richards tomorrow on DAZN and Sky Box Office.
Let’s dive in!
Note: Lewis Watson is taking a leave of absence so, for now, the prediction squad is down to three.
Dmitry Bivol vs Craig Richards
Scott Christ (26-8-2)
I am certain Dmitry Bivol wins. Craig Richards is just not on his level and this is not exactly the “bizarre” Bivol comeback idea that Eddie Hearn promised. It’s bizarre in that nobody expected this to be a fight that happened because nobody was thinking of Richards as a world title contender, but other than that, no. I thought Dmitry Bivol was going to fight a YouChoober or the like the way Eduardo Grande was talking it up. This is just a rust-shaker on paper. Bivol has a habit of boxing to his competition now that he’s no longer trying to make his name en route to a title fight, and I think he does that again here. Richards will go the distance, because Bivol is never going to press for something shorter. Bivol UD-12
Wil Esco (28-6-2)
Bivol smashes Richards in the face with a left or right hand - maybe both. Bivol TKO-5
Patrick L. Stumberg (27-7-2)
Entertainment-wise, this is essentially a worst-case scenario Bivol fight; he can beat Richards without getting out of second gear, so he’ll beat Richards without getting out of second gear. Nothing in Richards’ arsenal, whether it be his technique or his punching power, looks sufficient to make Bivol uncomfortable, and it’s become abundantly clear at this point that Bivol won’t leave his comfort zone unless aggressively prompted.
For my money, Artur Beterbiev is the only man at 175 with the grit, aggression, and power to really throw Bivol off his game and take the latter’s technical mastery out of the equation. Richards is a capable fighter, but he’s not winning a boxing match and can’t turn it into anything but a boxing match. Bivol outclasses him without much issue or excitement. Bivol UD-12
And the staff winner is...
Dmitry Bivol (3-0)!
How to Watch Chisora vs Parker
Date: Saturday, May 1 | Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
Location: AO Arena - Manchester, England
Streaming: DAZN | TV: Sky Box Office (UK)
Online Coverage: BadLeftHook.com
Katie Taylor vs Natasha Jonas
Scott Christ (26-8-2)
Jonas may really be the most skilled fighter Taylor has faced as a pro, but I don’t think she’s the biggest threat to beat Taylor, either. Jonas is a good fighter, she has a bit of pop, she can war when called upon to do so, but Katie’s tough in the trenches, too, it’s not like Delfine Persoon was dominating her. And Taylor more likely than not will see if she can lull Jonas into a straight-up boxing match, which Jonas isn’t good enough to win over Katie. If Jonas is going to win this, she has to bring the fight to Taylor and win it there. I don’t think she’ll be able to manage enough rounds of that, but she’ll be competitive. Taylor UD-10
Wil Esco (28-6-2)
I’m still waiting on the Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano match-up that was promised to me. It’s quite frustrating that even with the sparse levels of elite talent there is in women’s boxing some of the clearly obvious fights don’t get made. That said, it’s not like I’m not used to that being a frequent issue on the men’s side as well - so that’s just boxing for you. Anyway, I think Katie Taylor has shown some vulnerabilities and think it may not be long before she takes her first official loss, but I just have a feeling this won’t be the fight it happens. I think Jonas will come prepared and ready to make a scrap out of it and will even ultimately give Taylor some tough moments and tough rounds, but I don’t think she can finish Taylor and I’ve seen enough resilience coming from Taylor that I think she can make it past those tough moments. But when it’s all said and done I think Taylor will have racked up enough points in the early rounds to take a decision down the stretch. Taylor UD-10
Patrick L. Stumberg (27-7-2)
Jonas definitely impressed me against Harper, who I figured would dominate her from bell to bell, but that performance wasn’t enough to convince me that she can upend Taylor, who’s fast enough and sharp enough with her punches to keep Jonas on the back foot throughout. Even if Jonas does manage to seize the initiative and get Taylor on the defensive, 20 rounds with Delfine Persoon was more than enough to prepare Taylor for a pressure-heavy attack.
I expect Jonas to make her work for every minute of the fight, and she may even nick a couple of rounds if Taylor can’t maintain a consistent pace, but Taylor’s evolved past the point where Jonas could drag her into the slugfest she needs. 8-2/7-3 decision win for Taylor. Taylor UD-10
And the staff winner is...
Katie Taylor (3-0)!
Derek Chisora vs Joseph Parker
Scott Christ (26-8-2)
I don’t count Chisora out here, but it’s less to do with any of the WAR AND PAIN that Chisora brings than Parker not being terribly impressive in recent fights. That said, Parker generally gets through with the win in a matchup like this, and Chisora generally takes an L in a matchup like this. It’s hard to actually pick Chisora. I can picture a scenario where his pressure gets to Parker, I just don’t actually think it will happen, because I’ve seen lots of fights where there was a chance Chisora’s pressure will get to a better boxer, and it almost never gets him the win. Parker UD-12
Wil Esco (28-6-2)
I really like Derek Chisora. He can be pretty intense, but he’s also a pretty fun guy. What won’t be so much fun is him losing to Joseph Parker this weekend. I really want to believe Chisora can win here but I think he’s too much of a one-trick pony and too predictable for Parker to gameplan for. Chisora will be coming to bring the pressure but Parker is actually a pretty good boxer for a big fella and I don’t think Chisora can match his craft. The one area of intrigue for me here is that under the guidance of Andy Lee and the ‘Kronk’ influence, I expect to see a more aggressive version of Parker which could give Chisora more chances if he’s inclined to mix it up. All in all though, I still just think Parker is the safer bet here and as a more dynamic fighter I believe he’ll have more paths to victory in this fight and I think he uses that to win him a decision when it’s all said and done. Parker UD-12
Patrick L. Stumberg (27-7-2)
For me, the big question here isn’t whether Parker will beat Chisora but how he’ll look doing it. Parker has unquestionably regressed since those promising early days, and I’m keen to see whether his partnership with Andy Lee will finally break him out of his rut. While his speed and craft are more than sufficient to carry him past Chisora regardless, this is an opportunity to send a message to the division’s best.
To Chisora’s credit, he definitely still has grit for days and enough power to turn the fight around in an instant. Unfortunately, that’s just not enough against even an underperforming Parker, who’s always been remarkably difficult to put away. He may have to survive a few scares to do it, but expect Parker to win this comfortably. Parker UD-12