Diggin’ Deep on UFC Auckland: Prelims preview

Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Get the details of all the early fights from UFC Auckland, including the return of uber-tough Emil Weber Meek against Aussie mainstay Jake Matthews in a welterweight clash.

Not a major surprise, but the prelims for UFC Auckland aren’t juicing up anyone’s interest. After all, there’s only so many notable fighters that can come out of Australia, a country of roughly 25 million people. Well, I suppose New Zealand adds to the total with a population of just under 5 million, but it’s still a small pool to pull from. To make it even more difficult, it isn’t easy to convince other fighters to fly halfway around the world – which can often be a competitive disadvantage – in order to enter a hostile work environment where roughly 10,000 people boo you. Basically, it’s always been a chore for the UFC to drum up a preliminary card that draws eyeballs anytime they go to the continent of Australia. This time is no different.

On a note I find interesting, if we separate the early prelims from the televised prelims from the PPV’s, this will mark the seventh batch of prelims in five events of 2020. It will be the sixth one where the featured bout contains a DWCS alum. The lone exception? When James Krause stepped in on the day of weigh-ins to face Trevin Giles. Who did he replace? Antonio Arroyo… a DWCS alum. As far as UFC scheduling goes, every preliminary featured bout has had a DWCS alum in every contest. I’m going to be keeping track of this…

The UFC Auckland prelims begin on ESPN+ at 4:00 PM ET/1:00 PM PT on Saturday.

• Jalin Turner, the DWCS alum, is a tantalizing prospect. At 6’3” with a 77” reach, he possesses a unique frame at lightweight that creates problems for his opponents. The issue has been figuring out how to properly use it. To be fair, he’s still only 24 and a professional for four years. He flashed what he’s capable of with his devastating combo to finish Callan Potter a year ago and his takedown defense has been underrated. He welcomes a short-notice replacement in Joshua Culibao. I was initially hesitant to put any faith in Culibao when I saw he comes out of Australian Top Team – home of the Mokhtarian brothers among others — but he hasn’t just been fighting cans as per the usual course of fighters from that camp. Not that he’s been facing world beaters, but his competition has been acceptable. Culibao shows a willingness to mix his strikes, attacking all areas of the body, and can even wrestle a bit. However, he’s a natural featherweight and lacks the athletic explosion of Turner. It isn’t an impossibility to see him winning, but Turner has made this trip before and should know how to handle it better the second time around. Turner via TKO of RD2
• There have been more stops and starts than anyone would care to count in Jake Matthews UFC career. Then again, it makes sense when it comes to light he’s been on the UFC roster since 2014 and he’s still only 25. He’s had a bit of an identity crisis as well. Sometimes, he’s looking to establish himself as a bullying wrestler, other times he’s strictly looking to box. While there is nothing wrong with being well-rounded, look at what specialists like Demian Maia or Francis Ngannou have been able to do being great at one thing as opposed to good at all things. Matthews faces someone that can match – perhaps even exceed – his physical strength in Emil Weber Meek. Meek is largely a brawler with an endless gas tank. He can be outslicked in just about any aspect of the fight game, but he doesn’t know how to quit in addition to being exceptionally durable. Matthews hasn’t found much success against those he can’t overwhelm. He won’t be able to overwhelm Meek. Meek via TKO of RD3
• Nobody expected Callan Potter to even be competitive with Maki Pitolo after Potter was run over in less than a minute by Turner. Instead, he put together a strong all-around performance, outworking his younger and more athletic opponent with sheer guts and determination. It was reminiscent of cult fav-favorite Dan Kelly… who happens to be his mentor. His opponent, Kenan Song, is a superior athlete and harder hitter. Then again, just about everyone is in comparison to Potter. Regardless, Song has proven to be a pleasant surprise from the Chinese scene, showing KO power, durability, and just enough ability to stuff takedowns to keep the fight where he’s at his best. A replication of what Potter did to Piloto is certainly possible, but it feels unwise to pick that route again, particularly when Song has proven he can win in the UFC. Song via TKO of RD1
• It wasn’t that long ago many were hailing Kai Kara-France as the next big thing in the flyweight division. It wasn’t a difficult sell given his three-fight win streak and exciting style. However, a closer inspection upon the opponents he’s been beating reveals a less than inspiring record in the UFC, punctuated by his loss to Brandon Moreno. That hardly means Kara-France is a fraud. He’s a technically sound kickboxer with plus power for the flyweight division. He’ll be facing his most dangerous opponent on the feet in Tyson Nam, one of the few 125ers with similar power, perhaps even more power. Nam is 35, but hasn’t shown noticeable slippage in his athletic abilities. Then again, he hasn’t ever been the most athletic flyweight. With a lack of quickness, Nam has struggled to match his opponent’s volume. He could catch Kara-France with a heavy shot, but no one’s put down the New Zealand native since the infancy of his pro career. Kara-France’s volume is the safer bet. Kara-France via decision
• Angela Hill has been picking up a reputation as a female Donald Cerrone, willing to step in on short notice to save a fight. She does so again, going halfway around the world this time. Regardless of whether you’re a fan, her willingness to fight without proper preparation is more than admirable. She appears to be hitting her stride at this point as well, cutting back on the crazy amount of lateral movement she had previously been utilizing. The more straightforward approach allowed her to conserve energy and finish off Hannah Cifers past the halfway point of the contest, a time when Hill has typically faded. Loma Lookboonmee, previously a Muay Thai competitor, is an undersized strawweight who is nonetheless effective in the clinch. Her credentials in Muay Thai are impressive, but she’s still very green in MMA, especially on the mat. Hill isn’t known for her wrestling, but it was a takedown that set up her TKO finish. Takedowns may not result in a finish, but a win seems likely… provided Hill utilizes her ground abilities wisely. Hill via decision
• It’s been a tale of two cities for Maki Pitolo. He looked like a million bucks in his DWCS appearance, finishing off Justin Sumter in 97 seconds, laying in hooks to the body and head. Against Potter, Pitolo maintained the pressure, but showed zero defense and beginner’s level grappling, unable to push the much smaller man off him. That doesn’t bode well against a larger man in Takashi Sato. Sato isn’t known for his clinch work, but he’s an underrated wrestler with impressive GnP. Then again, Sato hasn’t been able to show those skills in the UFC, at least not yet. The biggest problem for Sato has been his complete lack of defense. Sato has the bigger toolbox, but the gapping holes in his armor could very well bring down his house of cards as Pitolo does have the power to make him pay. It’s a difficult call. Pitolo via TKO of RD2
• Priscila Cachoeira has established a reputation as one of the toughest women in the women’s flyweight division. That’s about where the positives end. She earned that reputation for enduring one of the worst beatings in UFC history at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko and going the distance in two other contests that saw her eat over 100 significant strikes each time. Translation: her defense is horrible and she isn’t much of an athlete. Even worse news for her is her opponent, Shana Dobson, is a solid athlete. What gives Cachoeira a chance is Dobson has similarly poor defense and a questionable ground game. However, Dobson’s athletic ability should allows her to cover up her holes more efficiently than Cachoeira. Plus, Dobson, for all her shortcomings, has shown plenty of power. It won’t deter Cachoeira from moving forward, but that, along with Dobson’s other significant physical advantages, will be enough to sway the judges. Dobson via decision