Diggin’ Deep on UFC London - Main card preview

Get the scoop on the main card action from UFC London, featuring a high profile rematch at light heavyweight between Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz, plus uber prospect Tom Duquesnoy.

The light heavyweight division may soon be best known for a dubious honor: the most unnecessary rematches. Remember who Ryan Bader’s farewell fight in the UFC was against? Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. No disrespect to Lil’ Nog, but nobody wanted to see that fight as he was well past his prime. The fans were saved from seeing Ovince Saint Preux and Shogun Rua run it again when Rua pulled up lame, but it still feels like that’s a contest that might happen again.

So, what unnecessary rematch are we being treated to this weekend at UFC London? Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz. I’m sure many of you were unaware it was even a rematch as the original contest offered nothing worth remembering. To cut the UFC a bit of slack, the reason for all the rematches is telling of the lack of depth within the division. There really aren’t many fresh contests to be made that make a lot of sense. Thus, the UFC is required to recycle many of these contests. It isn’t ideal, but sometimes they really are the contests that make the most sense given who is available to match up at the time. I agree with everyone else this sucks, but what can we do?

The main card begins on Fight Pass at 5:00 PM ET/2:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Jimi Manuwa (17-3) vs. Jan Blachowicz (21-7), Light Heavyweight

The first contest between these two was… bad. It consisted of a lot of clinch control with lackluster standup. Given the prowess both have shown on their feet, it was a bit of a surprising development. While it has been proven for an exciting fight to be followed up with a horrible sequel (think of the third contest between Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia after their first two contests were awesome), we can only hope the reverse can be proven true.

It’s easy to forget Manuwa is already 38 given his late start in the sport. He was tearing up a trail to a title shot prior to being felled by Volkan Oezdemir. It seems likely overconfidence played a part in Manuwa’s downfall, a mistake that is unlikely to be repeated so soon after it cost him so dearly. Manuwa often looks lackadaisical, keeping his volume to a minimum and resorting to clinching against the fence with regularity. However, don’t let that appearance fool you. Manuwa has proven to be one of the more accurate strikers in the sport, picking his spots wisely with power in both his hands. Most encouraging has been his development of a jab in recent contests.

Blachowicz has looked much more confident in his recent contests, effectively utilizing a jab and putting together short punching combinations centered around an uppercut. Those who remember Blachowicz’s UFC debut against Ilir Latifir also remember the brutal blow to the body that stopped the man-mountain. Blachowicz can stand and trade. Then again, we’ve always known that.

What has stunted Blachowicz’s growth has been his takedown defense… or lack thereof. Granted, he has worked hard in that category to remain vertical against Devin Clark and Jared Cannonier as neither were able to get the Pole to the mat. In fact, it was Blachowicz using his own wrestling to take them to the ground with a high degree of success.

Blachowicz has looked better than ever in his recent appearances, giving many reason to believe he could overthrow Manuwa in an upset. However, it needs to be noted Manuwa suffered a knee injury very early in their first contest, limiting him the rest of the way. Even if Manuwa has declined a bit in that time – and there is no sign he has – he was still able to beat Blachowicz despite being hobbled. Unless Blachowicz’s wrestling is better than we all expect – Manuwa’s takedown defense is solid -- I’d expect this contest to go similarly to the first contest… though I’d hope it isn’t. Manuwa via decision

Tom Duquesnoy (15-2, 1 NC) vs. Terrion Ware (17-6), Bantamweight

Duqeusnoy was one of the most hyped prospects to enter the UFC in recent years, only to be derailed in his second appearance by Cody Stamann. Given Stamann’s recent victory over Bryan Caraway, Duquesnoy’s loss doesn’t look quite so bad anymore. Nonetheless, the Frenchman has something to prove everyone following that loss and NEEDS to make a statement against the durable Ware.

Ware is the type of fighter that is often the unsung hero of the sport, providing tough and exciting challenges for up-and-coming talent. Perhaps the largest reason for capability in providing that is his incredible durability. Though you wouldn’t know it by looking at the numbers, Ware isn’t a terrible defensive fighter. He simply chooses to stay in front of his opponent at all times, pressuring and dealing his own brand of offense.

Duqesnoy won’t shy away from Ware at all. In fact, he’s likely to meet him in the middle for what could be the most explosive contest of the evening. Duquesnoy has been lauded for his clinch offense, but to say that is the only area that he is effective would be highly inaccurate. What cost him against Stamann was his lack of wrestling, an area that Ware has also struggled in and is unlikely to utilize. That alone makes him a good matchup for Duquesnoy, regardless if that’s the type of fight that Ware prefers too.

Though the UFC needs more fighters like Ware, this is likely his last appearance in the Octagon. There are too many things working against him. He’s not a great athlete. He doesn’t hit particularly hard. Though he has some decent submissions, he relies too heavily on them to make up for his lack of takedown defense. Not a good combination, particularly when you throw in that the UFC isn’t looking to turn him into a long-term fixture. Duquesnoy on the other hand is someone they are trying to make a star despite his recent hiccup. I realize the UFC isn’t providing Duquesnoy with any advantages against Ware, but they are giving him a matchup that should not only provide him with a rebound victory, but an exciting win too. Duquesnoy via TKO of RD3

Leon Edwards (14-3) vs. Peter Sobotta (17-5-1), Welterweight

Edwards is one of the best fighters you’ve never heard of. Having won six of his last seven contests – the lone loss coming to Kamaru Usman – Edwards has transformed himself from a patient and explosive striker with a limited ground game into a threat from all areas while still maintaining the power that made him an intriguing prospect in the first place. He’s even been impressive in that lone loss in the stretch, giving Usman the toughest challenge during Usman’s current unbeaten stretch in the UFC. There is argument whether he has become too reliant on his newfound ability to get his opponent to the ground and smoother them, but I suppose it does minimize the possibility of being KO’d if he’s maintaining top control as opposed to standing and trading.

Given Sobotta’s continued improvement on the feet, it’s unlikely Edwards is going to return to his roots in this contest. Sobotta was better known as a submission grappler upon his return to the UFC four years ago and has done a fine job changing the narrative of him into a skilled kickboxer. He solidified that reputation by dropping Ben Saunders multiple times over the course of two rounds. He doesn’t do anything flashy on the feet; he’s just a fundamentally sound Muay Thai practitioner who still has his black belt in BJJ to fall back on. Sobotta isn’t Demian Maia by any means (who is?), but he can more than hold his own with the majority of the welterweight division.

Perhaps the biggest key in this contest is how well Sobotta’s wrestling holds up. True, he’s shown good takedown defense throughout his UFC career and has even been more consistent in his ability to score his own takedowns in recent contests. However, there isn’t a single opponent Sobotta has faced in his UFC career that anyone would call a wrestler first. Edwards’ base may not be wrestling either, but he has developed into a legit threat to get anyone to the ground. Edwards is a better athlete, possesses more KO power, and is the better wrestler. Despite Sobotta’s edge in submissions, Edwards should be able to win this comfortably. Edwards via decision