Raptors vs Cavaliers: The deepest 2026 NBA playoff preview you’ve ever read

Gaius Marius was for a long time the most powerful man in the Roman Republic. He quickly rose through positions such as Tribune, Praetor, Proconsul, Legate, and finally Consul, the most powerful position in the Republic. He won wars, led the Republic, enjoyed his power. Until internal political disputes went against him, and he retired from public life for more than a decade. But then, against all odds, he returned (and was a vicious tyrant) to seize Rome when Sulla left on campaign, becoming Consul once more.

The Toronto Raptors are following something of a similar path (minus, you know, the tyranny). For a long time, they were co-determinants of the growth and evolution of the NBA, even culminating in a championship in 2019. Then came the lean years. The team grew worse, and the best players left, and the Raptors were left tanking for a few seasons. They retired from public life, insofar as that’s possible in the NBA. But now they’re back. In a new era, with Scottie Barnes leading the charge, the Raptors are back in the playoffs.

My point? It has been some time since we’ve gone through this exercise. But we’re back. This was the last playoff series preview this site has seen, and the only player remaining from that squad is Scottie Barnes. So, a refresher: This looks at everything. Everything. No numerical or tactical stone will remain untouched as we dissect Toronto’s upcoming series. But this intro — while the shortest component of this behemoth — is dragging on long. Let’s just dive into it.

When

The series will open at 1 pm EST on Saturday, April 18. It will be on Amazon Prime Video.

Injuries

It’s doubtful injuries play a massive role in this series, at least not to start. No team has perfect health after the grind of 82 regular-season games, but both teams will likely have all their players available.

The Raptors have some players who are banged up, but it’s likely that everyone is available. RJ Barrett has sat the last few games with right knee soreness. Immanuel Quickley returned from plantar fasciitis, but he has clearly been limited, and he left the season finale with hamstring tightness in the same leg. Collin Murray-Boyles has a terribly injured left thumb (his shooting hand), which saw him miss time, as well as a neck sprain. Still, they’ll likely all be ready to go to start. Quickley did get an MRI after the game, and results are yet to be revealed, so that’s the biggest question mark on the injury front.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, though the team is somewhat banged up as well, will likely have their entire playoff rotation intact. James Harden is dealing with a non-displaced fracture in his right thumb (and remember: he shoots left-handed), but he has been playing. Thomas Bryant has been out for a few games with a left calf strain, and though he may miss time into the playoffs, it’s not like he would have been a sure thing in the rotation regardless.

Expect both teams to play the whole squads, even if no one is a picture of perfect health.

The Basic Numbers

Over the course of the season, the Cavaliers have been superior to the Raptors. The season series (we’ll get there soon) obviously tilts in Toronto’s direction, but the Cavaliers have earned their six more wins on the season than Toronto. They have been the better team. And that has been especially true since February 7, which was the team’s first game with James Harden in the lineup. Thus I’m going to include Cleveland’s numbers on the season as a whole as well as since Harden’s first game as a Cav.

There are some clear takeaways here. Namely, the Raptors and the Cavaliers have some points of conflict, in which they will be trying to win the same battles in the same ways, and some points of distance, in that they will be trying to win other battles in different ways.

First of all, both teams want to own the paint. And they both want to do it with assisted looks, with initiators finding the efficient bigs on rolls, cuts, and duck-ins. The Cavaliers, especially with James Harden on the roster, have been exceptional at the rim. Since February 7, the Cavaliers have been the most efficient team when shooting in the short mid-range team and 12th when shooting at the rim. The Raptors have been 16th and 10th respectively over that same time period. And both teams attempt above-average rates of shots from both areas. And defensively, both teams have been very strong at forcing misses in the short mid-range and at the rim. So which team gets all the way to the rim, rather than stopping in the short mid-range, and which team finishes in those areas, will be a battle of sameness.

Secondly, the Raptors run more than any other team in the league, and the Cavaliers are elite at stopping opponents from running. More on this to come, but the less the game is played in the half-court, the better Toronto’s chances become. A battle of difference.

Both teams are middling 3-point shooting teams, though the Raptors are probably best defined as below-average, there. But they’ve been very strong in recent weeks, especially given Ja’Kobe Walter’s hot streak. Neither team depends on triples, but the Cavaliers far more frequently initiate the half-court with pull-up triples, ranking seventh in attempted pull-up triples per game (at 11.8), while the Raptors rank dead last (at 4.9). If Cleveland gets hot off the bounce, that would be much harder for Toronto to take away, and shift much more of Toronto’s defensive shell, than if Toronto gets hot off the catch. Though 3-point shooting looks similar in the aggregate, it’s actually a large advantage for Cleveland. Furthermore, none of Sam Merrill, Harden, or Dean Wade have played in a huge number of games for Cleveland this season, and they rank second, third, and fourth respectively in 3-point attempts per game for the Cavs while also all hitting over 40 percent on the season from deep as Cavs. Cleveland could show up as a devastating shooting team. Toronto will most likely not.

And despite starting twin towers, such efficiency is not really driven by offensive rebounding for Cleveland at all either. Going by half-court, first-chance efficiency, which excludes offensive rebounds and transition shots, the Cavaliers ranked sixth in the league at 101.4 points per 100 plays. All this means Cleveland will simply shoot more efficiently than Toronto over the course of the series. The Raptors need to win the transition game and get out and run in order to have a chance. Harden’s presence has also limited Cleveland’s turnovers and slowed their already glacial pace further. That all bodes ill for Toronto. If the Raptors let Cleveland define the pace of play, and completely lose the ability to run in transition, it will be a short series. Tempo will be one battle of difference.

Both teams are average on the glass. Rebounds could be easier to come by than turnovers in this series, so either coach could decide to throw the kitchen sink at the glass and see if it tilts the possession battle their way.

Season Series Numbers

The biggest caveat of all here is that the Raptors have not played the Cavaliers with Harden on the roster. So take all of these with a grain of salt. But they are informative in some ways, so we can’t skip this.

It’s important to note, this was not just shooting differential. Toronto defined the games. Despite losing the turnover battle, the Raptors were able to get out and run in transition like madmen. They smashed the glass and won the paint battle. These were real wins. Still. Much has changed.

All three games took place in 2025, two coming in Toronto’s nine-game winning streak early in the season, and the other before even those. Toronto’s final win over the Cavaliers represented, in hindsight, the high-water mark of the season (to this point). I wrote this then:

The Raptors at the moment are a strong enough team that they can turn on the gas for three minutes against a very good team and spring into the lead after a relatively uncertain half. Sure, the Cavaliers missed starters. But Donovan Mitchell played. Evan Mobley played. The Raptors had more torque, more power, and a better top-end speed. 

The Raptors have now eight wins in a row. That’s more wins than there were Wonders of the Ancient World. More than Ramona’s Evil Exes. More than the Pleiades. 

Scottie Barnes forced a timeout early in the third quarter with force. A rebound, a drive, an extra dribble, a fastball hook pass to Jakob Poeltl for the dunk. The Raptors saunter off the floor, casual, slow. Tired? They’re probably tired. It’s the second night of a back-to-back. The Jumbo Raptor ambles onto the floor to nom nom some security guards. 

The Cavaliers, also on the second night of a back-to-back, look tireder. 

There were few obvious commonalities between the three games, outside of the eventual victor. In one, RJ Barrett thrived with his constant downhill pressure as his teammates assisted his looks. In another Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes went berserk. In the final, Brandon Ingram went even more berserk. Jamison Battle saved one of the contests personally, and Jakob Poeltl even had a fantastic game in there.

The Cavaliers were far more injured in those three games than the Raptors, but Evan Mobley played in all three contests. And the Raptors attacked him in the paint fairly well. (He has always been a better paint protector with Allen alongside him, so Toronto’s success in those games isn’t necessarily indicative of Mobley not being able to control the defensive end in this series.) Still, Barnes and Barrett especially drove well into the teeth of the defence, and each scored more efficiently on drives than his season average. The Raptors truly beat the Cavaliers quite solidly in those three games. And yet, things have changed since then.

Starter Matchups

Toronto:

PG: Immanuel Quickley
SG: RJ Barrett
SF: Brandon Ingram
PF: Scottie Barnes
C: Jakob Poeltl

Cleveland:

PG: James Harden
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Dean Wade
PF: Evan Mobley
C: Jarrett Allen

It’s of course no guarantee that these are the starting groups. The Raptors could get funky (doubtful) out of the gate, but it’s also possible that the Cavaliers opt for more shooting at the small-forward spot. Dean Wade started on April 8, Cleveland’s final dress-rehearsal game before resting players, so I’m assuming he starts here. But it could be Sam Merrill, or it could be Max Strus. I’m going with Wade as the guess here.

So the matchups likely shake out this way:

Barrett guards Harden
Quickley guards Mitchell
Ingram guards Wade
Barnes guards Mobley
Poeltl guards Allen

I think much of that is interchangeable across the 1-2-3 spectrum, while Barnes on Mobley and Poeltl on Allen is set in stone, at least to start. (Eventually, Barnes may have to shift onto one of the initiating guards if Barrett and Quickley aren’t able to handle the downhill pressure, but I seriously doubt the series starts that way.) But Barrett gives the most strength on the enormously strong Harden, which puts the lithe Quickley on Cleveland’s best off-ball player, as Quickley is the best off-ball defender as compared to Barrett and Ingram. Thus Ingram would be left on Wade. I am not super confident in these matchups, either in that they will work, or that Toronto even opts to go this way.

Some questions: How does Barrett defend in this series? Does he dies on screens trying to get over against Harden? Is Toronto forced to switch Poeltl onto Harden? Does Barrett fail to fight his way back into the play when he’s above the break and Harden is driving past him? Barrett has to answer all of those as positively as possible, but it will be a remarkably difficult series for him on the defensive end.

(One benefit of having Barrett guard Harden is that Harden is a very limited off-ball player, mostly preferring to float above the break for reset passes. Barrett’s greatest weakness as a defender is what he does when his mark does not have the ball. His job will be easier there against Harden, mostly just standing near him, than it would against other players.)

In Toronto’s only game against Harden this season, on Jan. 16 against the Los Angeles Clippers, Barnes guarded Harden (and very well). That won’t be an option against the enormous Cavaliers, at least not without some sacrifices elsewhere. The other starter who saw the most time against Harden was Ingram, who saw some switches onto him. But the Clipper scored fantastically in those moments, with Harden drawing free throws with relative ease. There’s really not two good starting Raptors to defend Harden and Mobley — only Barnes. He can only do so much. He’ll switch, and he’ll help, and do more than any single defender has any right to. But Harden puts the Raptors’ defence in a pickle, matchup-wise.

Eventually, I think Ja’Kobe Walter has to guard Mitchell as much as possible. He and Jamal Shead actually found success on him (relatively) in the November 24 contest, and I think Walter is the only Raptor with a real shot at sticking with him through screens and in isolation. I doubt that means starting lineup changes, but it is a problem coming into the series, that Toronto doesn’t start its best defender for Cleveland’s best player.

And the other direction, here are some guesses:

Mitchell guards Quickley
Harden guards Barrett
Wade guards Ingram
Mobley guards Barnes
Allen guards Poeltl

This is much more straight up, and much more reasonable. And it’s the same both ways! No cross matching? Seems unlikely. But, the Cavaliers don’t have an exquisite wing stopper to throw on Ingram, though Wade is their best defensive option at the small forward spot, so starting him makes extra sense there. Mitchell is quicker and Harden stronger, so it would make sense for Mitchell to guard the speedy Quickley and Harden the bulldozer Barrett. I doubt these get swapped around too much.

While keeping in mind that plenty of players missed games in the regular season (Barrett 1, Jakob Poeltl 1, Harden 3, Wade 1, Mitchell 1, Allen 2), here’s how it went during the regular season with Toronto on offence:

A takeaway there is that Cleveland really wasn’t afraid to switch onto Toronto’s guards in Quickley and Ingram. Mobley saw plenty of time guarding players beyond Barnes. Those were generally advantages for Toronto.

And the same with Toronto on defence:

The Raptors were less willing to move Barnes away from Mobley. They may have to in this series, especially if Harden starts shredding Barrett or Quickley or Ingram.

Some extra things to note:

• Yes, Mobley shot very well when guarded by Barnes. But the more important numbers are that he actually took very few attempts, given the number of possessions, and the Cavaliers scored remarkably poorly as a team in those possessions. The same was true when Mobley guarded Barnes. Both represent their teams’ best defenders, and both represent their teams’ best finishers, and limited creators. Whichever team can shake that defender elsewhere on the court, to free their starting power forward against a lesser defender, will find far easier offence. And part of Toronto winning the season series was the fact that Barnes stuck to Mobley for almost 40 extra possessions.
  • If Ingram gets wildly hot, which he could, Mobley could see some time there. He would likely be able to shut off that water without any help behind him, so the Raptors would have to shift Cleveland’s defence around through other means. Barnes has been able to brutalize all non-bigs on Cleveland’s roster. If Mobley goes elsewhere, could Barnes simply move through Wade in the post? He didn’t in the regular season, but the Raptors have to hope that they get a chance to find out.
    • Where do Barnes’ points come from? If he is asked to isolate against Mobley ten times a game, things could go poorly. The Raptors need to find ways to get Barnes the ball, catching on the move, ideally with not Mobley in front of him. Ingram cooking in isolation is one way to shift things around to free Barnes.
  • If Toronto does start switching Barnes everywhere on the defensive end, on one hand that will be a meaningful way to force misses and keep the defence out of rotation. But the Raptors have to be able to clean the glass behind him. They have been a lesser defensive rebounding team when switching across the positional spectrum, and Poeltl hasn’t exactly inspired confidence there in recent games. If Barnes switches, and Poeltl contests at the rim, Barrett and Ingram will need to fight like hell on the glass. Ingram’s rebounding will play a large role in this series.
• Barrett has to perform offensively. He will naturally have usage shifting to him in the playoffs, largely because he is always confident in his jumper and his drive. He has to turn those touches into meaningful advantages. If he can draw fouls, that’s a real way to move the offensive chains. Will his two-dribble, spin, spin, push shot over the bigs work when there are twin towers on the floor? Will he be able to find Poeltl’s pocket with his bounce pass on empty-side pick and rolls when there are multiple bigs waiting in the paint? Cleveland offers special challenges to Barrett, but Barrett is in many ways the only Raptor who can perform in such a diversity of sets. He will cut. He will shoot. He will drive. He will churn his way to the rim from anywhere on the court. He can’t allow Cleveland to limit those abilities. Harden is strong, and he won’t fly past Barrett on closeouts. Barrett will have to get a step on him by running him through screens if he can’t beat him outright.
• If the Raptors do end up needing to match Walter’s minutes with Mitchell, how can they accomplish that? One way would be for an early, early hook for one of Barrett or Quickley, but there’s no easy answer. Poeltl seems like the benchable option, but the Raptors will simply need his size against Cleveland. But Toronto could close games with different lineups in different games.
  • Poeltl has a natural defensive spot against Allen. Allen is a fantastic roller, so Poeltl needs to play those mini-games perfectly. But he’s done so in the past. More threatening is when Poeltl helps on Mitchell or Harden drives and opens up the glass behind him or, even worse, opens up lay-down passes to Allen behind him for dunks. The primary matchup makes sense for Poeltl, but the more challenging aspect of this series for him is how he corrals Cleveland’s guards as the helper. Which leads to the next point:
• Speaking about Poeltl, he simply has to return to form. When he’s been at his best, the Raptors have absolutely thrived. When he’s been at his worst, he has been beaten at the point of attack, made poor reads in interior defence, and been unable to clean the glass, either. Outside of star matchups, Poeltl’s health will go possibly the longest way to dictating this series. And if he simply doesn’t have it, and can’t help in the paint without opening up meat on the plate behind him, the Raptors have one Collin Murray-Boyles ready to go. He has had an incredible close to the season, and his presence as a switchable big who can force turnovers could go a long way to limiting Mitchell and Harden.
  • Murray-Boyles could change how Toronto defends Mitchell and Harden. He can play different coverages in the pick and roll quite well, but he’s Toronto’s only real shot at switching. Cleveland’s bigs are some of the world’s best at finishing when those shots are created for them, but they’re not great in the post or in isolation. There could be some pain inflicted on Cleveland’s offence if Toronto can switch bigs onto Cleveland’s guards and get away with it. Barnes can obviously do that. Murray-Boyles is the only other big Toronto can safely ask to do so. He can flip his hips and move with Mitchell or Harden, forcing them into zero-pass, contested looks. He won’t win every battle, but he won’t sell the farm and give up uncontested looks, either. Meanwhile, when he plays at the level, remains on his mark, and offers nail help on drives, he can force tons of turnovers. Winning rebounding battles against Mobley or Allen will be a challenge, but if he can fight on the glass, his presence could really boost Toronto’s defence. Ideally, Poeltl and Murray-Boyles find their way into the series, but at least the Raptors have options in playing through multiple coverages.
    • Another benefit Murray-Boyles could offer: He could theoretically guard Mobley fairly well, freeing Barnes to guard Harden. Such transitional units could be a real strength for Toronto. I doubt Murray-Boyles works his way into the starting lineup in this series (unless things go terribly wrong for Poeltl), but it’s easy to see his minutes creeping up and up as the series ages.
• Samson mentioned this in passing, but it was an excellent point: Harden and Mitchell are not good point-of-attack defenders. But do the Raptors have initiators talented enough to actually punish them? Who will cross them, drive past them, and finish in the paint? Barrett might from the weak side as a secondary attacker. But otherwise, a straight pick and roll attacking either of those two might not be in Toronto’s best interest. They aren’t terrible defenders, and both are better on ball than off. Can Quickley make them pay with his off-ball movement hunting space?
  • The Cavaliers are unafraid to switch Mitchell and Harden on or off the ball. Switching limits Quickley. Can he force them into different coverages if he gets hot with some side-stepping shooting?
    • Quickley’s screening could be another significant way to attack Harden and Mitchell. The Barnes-Quickley pick and roll — little seen this season — could go a long way to either getting Mobley away from Barnes or giving Quickley momentum into attacking Mitchell. Expect to see plenty of those 4-1 pick and rolls.
• But how does Quickley’s defence find its way into the series? He has had a strong defensive season, and he finds his way into the correct spots off ball very well. But he’s slight of frame, and Harden and Mitchell are both enormously powerful. What happens if they drive through him? This doesn’t seem like the best series for him defensively, at least in the starter-starter matchup. If he gets to guard Tyson, Strus, Schroder, or players of that ilk, there are plenty of ways for Quickley to positively impact the game as a defender. But the starting group gives him few places into which to sink his teeth. Maybe he just ends up on Wade, which would force Ingram onto Harden and Barrett onto Mitchell. That seems like you’re creating far larger problems than the one you’re trying to solve. You just need to survive Quickley being at a strength disadvantage, I imagine.
• Barrett and Ingram need to be attentive off the ball. The Raptors have so few paths to success in this series, they cannot afford silly mistakes. Yes, things will be easier off ball for Barrett guarding Harden. But he’ll see plenty of possessions guarding elsewhere. They simply can’t allow cuts from the corner to romp in for dunks.

The Benches

Both teams end up with similar strengths off the bench, in terms of balancing style of play, and similar rates of success. Both teams rank exceptionally low in terms of bench points (24th and 25th), but both use their benches to balance roster imbalances in the starting groups. Both prioritize the starters in terms of shots and usage, but both have their most efficient play finishers (outside of centers) coming off the bench. However the two teams took dramatically different routes to get to those destinations.

The Raptors spent much of the season with somewhat weak bench play, but they’ve really settled on a strong four player unit coming off the pine. (Much of the weakness was because Toronto went so deep into its bench for much of the season.) In Jamal Shead (assists), Ja’Kobe Walter (shooting and defence), Sandro Mamukelashvili (shooting and driving), and Murray-Boyles (defence and defence and defence), the Raptors have four bench players who bring unique strengths to the game. Those players were all on the roster at the start of the season, but it took Darko Rajakovic time to land on the unit. It’s possible Jamison Battle, flamethrower, finds his way into the series, but it’s just as likely he doesn’t.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers rebuilt their bench at the trade deadline. Nothing remains certain because of so many injuries to the roster, but in their final tune-up game with (almost) everyone available, Merrill, Keon Ellis, Strus, and Dennis Schroder came off the bench. Jaylon Tyson was hurt, but he returned in the following contest. Those five give Cleveland plenty of wing options with little bench creation at the guard spot or real size at the big spot. Between the five of them, there’s an insane amount of shooting despite little positional versatility. Fortunately, Cleveland starts two guard creators and two legitimate bigs, so it shouldn’t be too hard to mix in a bench full of wings. I doubt Cleveland stays 10 deep for a full series, but there are 10 legitimate rotation options for the Cavs. (Eleven if you include Thomas Bryant.)

As far as bench players go, Merrill has hugely boosted Cleveland’s offence. He’s the best shooter on the team and one of the best in the league. He has extraordinary range and a lightning trigger, so his presence above the break would shift Toronto’s nail defence several inches higher. Strus is also an excellent shooter, though not quite as strong, but a more capable defender and with more size, too. Ellis is probably Cleveland’s best guard defender, and like Walter for Toronto, he comes off the bench.

While Cleveland is at its best with all its starters or with two starters on the floor (ignore the zero-starter numbers, they don’t run nearly enough of those minutes to matter), Toronto has been at its best with one-starter groups. That could be a problem against the Cavaliers, with enough size to really force Shead away from passing and towards his floater game over enormous contests. If the Raptors close quarters with Ingram playing alongside the four bench players, will the Raptors be able to score against a unit with Tyson on the wing to guard Ingram and back-stopped by Allen or Mobley? (The Cavaliers have used Thomas Bryant to close the first quarter, but I seriously doubt that remains a thing in the playoffs. The Raptors have to hope it does.) There’s a real chance that Toronto survives the starter minutes against Cleveland but then loses in the edges of the transitional lineups.

Toronto needs Mamukelashvili to dominate offensively in this series. He is the team’s only stretch big, and if he can actually shift Cleveland’s bigs out of the paint, it would go a long way towards him winning minutes. He can drive against virtually any defence when he’s not the primary or secondary option, and he’s actually boosted Toronto’s transition attack, too. He has rapid hands above the break, and he always looks to push and run. He has been Toronto’s best bench player over the course of the season. Murray-Boyles needs to continue to force oodles of turnovers, especially when he sets rails on Harden or Mitchell and gets his mitts on them in the paint. Shead has to find ways to weaponize his passes without being forced into being a scorer. It’s possible Cleveland plays Shead off the floor of the series given his inefficient scoring and Cleveland’s size. If that happens, does Barnes have to add more point guard duties to his plate?

Cleveland’s bench will have the easier job in the series, but Toronto’s bench likely has the higher upside in terms of ability to impact the series of diverse ways. If Toronto can limit the number of open triples for Cleveland’s bench, that can defang the whole system. Easier said than done.

Offensive and Defensive Styles

This has bled into every section so far, so I’ll try to keep this brief. Relatively brief, that is.

Cleveland is defined by playing slow. If they minimize the number of possessions in a game, they will likely be able to win the efficiency battle against any team in the league. With Harden on the court, the Cavaliers play almost a full second slower on offence than with him on the bench, which represents the largest gap on the team. (Ingram has a similar impact for Toronto, though to less positive results.)

And Harden’s redefinition of the team has gone swimmingly. Some of the numbers with Harden in house are outrageous for Cleveland. With Harden on the court versus off, Allen’s 2-point percentage jumps from 62.7 to 71.3. Mobley sees a similar boost from 61.9 to 66.1; Mobley also sees his at-rim frequency skyrocket by 16 (!) percentage points from 41.9 percent of his shots to 57.6. Harden turns his bigs from solid weapons to absolutely deadly machines of war. He’s only played 137 minutes alongside both bigs, but they have had a net rating of plus-20. That is fearsome stuff.

Cleveland’s defence suffers when Harden plays alongside Mitchell, but the offence becomes better than the best offence in the league. The big four have played 92 minutes together, with a net rating of plus-25. It’s very possible that Cleveland is just a championship contender with more top-end talent than virtually any team in the league. If those numbers hold, the Raptors will just be chum in the water with sharks. The minute counts are low, so the Raptors have to hope the foursome aren’t as much of a chainsaw together as they might be.

The Raptors simply have to play fast, force the game for real stretches into eight-second possessions both ways, and jank the game into rebounding scrums and loose-ball battles. If they win the possession and the tempo fights, they will have a chance.

Some numbers on play-types:

(Another caveat: This data is from NBA Advanced Stats, which does not include passes away from plays. This of course limits the usefulness of data. That’s why Toronto’s post-up and pick-and-roll numbers are so low, because the real meat of those possessions – hitting perimeter shooters after the ball touches the paint – isn’t included in the data.)

Both teams are high-frequency cut teams. The Cavaliers lead the league in roller possessions. These are all indicators of teams that want to smash the paint. In Barnes and Poeltl, the Raptors have the guns in the front-court who can finish as efficiently as the Cavaliers. They simply lack the guards who can deliver the ball in as advantageous positions.

If the Cavaliers opt to play zone, the Raptors should be equipped to handle it. They have been much better against zone in recent weeks (and months), even scoring well enough that teams mostly haven’t bothered to run zone. The Cavaliers ran lots of it in the three matchups early in the season. Most teams try to shoot over the top of zones, but Toronto has found its most efficient buckets against zone by creating short mid-range looks and lay-downs to cutters in the dunker spots for layups. To that point: traditionally, the Raptors have found success by finding Barnes in the middle of the floor and letting him make plays from there. In recent games, they’ve even let Quickley, Shead, and others catch middle and make more rapid choices. Toronto has spent the season facing more zone than any other team in the NBA. It should be ready if the Cavaliers run zone a huge amount in this series.

Much of Toronto’s playbook in terms of wheel rotations around an action was drawn from Kenny Atkinson’s 2024-25 offence. (Most of the league took those concepts of timing cuts and rotations.) The Cavaliers had to change their approach this season because their innovations last year were no longer on the cutting edge just one season later. We all know what happened to Cleveland in the playoffs last year. Could Cleveland similarly stomp on Toronto’s offence, which relies on a delicate ecosystem of timed actions and triggered movements? Cleveland rebuilt its offence this season to be more sustainable come the playoffs.

Prediction

There are very few paths to Toronto winning this series. It needs to keep the game out of the half-court, which Cleveland is fantastic at forcing games into. Meanwhile, when in the half-court, it needs to find ways to handle Mitchell and Harden as scorers without opening up accessible passing lanes to their bigs. Again: They are exquisite at creating those passes. Toronto needs to close out to Cleveland’s shooters stationed well behind the arc in order to force them to put the ball on the floor. If Merrill gets to up-fake and take one dribble to the side for an open triple, that will be death.

And Toronto needs to do all that while somehow getting back into rebounding position. It’s very hard to see Toronto doing all of those things with the current starting lineup, but it’s also hard to see the Raptors survive on offence — even a little bit — with Murray-Boyles and Walter playing with the starters. They may help defensively, but they don’t boast the individual creation required to punish Cleveland’s specific stable of defenders. The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Toronto.

Offensively, the Raptors need to unlock Barnes as a roller and finisher without Mobley guarding him. Shots need to funnel to the efficient play-finishers, namely Barnes, Poeltl, and Walter. Barrett needs to ensure Cleveland’s size doesn’t force him into inefficient games. Ingram must explode against Cleveland’s decided lack of wing stopper.

If all of those things happen, Toronto can make a series of it. But even if they do all happen, a win is still far from guaranteed. The Cavaliers look like a significantly better team. There are few matchups at which Toronto can poke, and Cleveland has such lineup versatility that it can find other answers if Toronto poses tricky questions. Yes, Harden has some playoff collapses to his name. He’s still averaging 22 points per game across 173 career playoff games — far, far more than every other Raptor combined. Harden being on the opposing team is a problem for Toronto, not a solution to its troubles.

Yes, Toronto won the season series 3-0. I think Cleveland likely wins this series in five or six. Let’s say six to be generous.

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