Cracketology: Championship Week is Here!
It's been a long time since we got one of these posted, but this seems as good a time as any to reset where the bracket stands with less than a week until Selection Sunday. Let's talk through some of the key decisions from the top to the bottom of the Seed List:
The Protected Seeds: With Marquette's upset of UConn, the top-8 may have a slightly different order but it's hard to see any of those teams not currently landing on those lines. Iowa State or Purdue might be able to sneak up to the 2-line, Nebraska and Texas Tech are pretty close on the 3/4 cut, but these feel pretty solid. Vanderbilt or Arkansas might have a good case for a 4-seed with a run, but will the Selection Committee weigh a Sunday result that heavily to potentially upend the entire bracket by moving a team that impacts pod location? It feels unlikely.
The Not So Big East: UConn is solidly on the 2-line and still has a shot at a 1-seed if they win the Big East Tournament and Florida bows out early. St. John's looks like a solid 5-seed while Villanova is comfortably on the 7-line. Beyond that, the only chance at any extra bids is a bid thief. No one else can earn an at-large out of this league. If Marquette can beat Xavier, repeat their upset against UConn, and pull a stunner on Friday Night at the Garden, who knows? Maybe there were really 2 in 14,000,605 possibilities of a Marquette bid.
Hard Calls #1 - Wisconsin: Pop quiz! How many teams have 3 road wins over top-10 teams in the NET? The answer is one, and it's the Badgers. The consensus has Bucky on the 6-line, but we pushed them up to the 5-line because of these quality wins. North Carolina might have a better top to bottom resume, but will be without likely lottery pick Caleb Wilson in the NCAA Tournament. We believe Wisconsin's wins at Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue boost the Badgers higher than most expect, and don't be shocked if they can play their way up as high as the 4-line.
Hard Calls #2 - Miami, OH: First, I'll note that the Redhawks are NOT in as the MAC automatic bid, they are an at-large. This is because until a conference champ is determined, we use the highest NET ranking rather than league record to determine our auto-bids. Most seem to think if Miami is an at-large, their terrible predictive metrics could push them to the 11-line and possibly even Dayton. I don't think so. Last year, Memphis had poor predictives, but their resume average indicated they deserved a 5-seed. I was stunned when I had Memphis as an 8-seed, roughly splitting their resume and predictives, but they landed as the 5-seed the resume suggested. I think Miami will be similarly benefitted this year. If they're an at-large, I'll seed them one line below where their resume average indicates they should be (currently 33.7 would be a 9-seed). If they win the automatic bid, I'll seed them in line with their resume average. As a result, I expect the Redhawks will land between the 8-10 seed lines rather than the 11-seed most have them slotted into.
Hard Calls #3: Last Team In: Usually the last few are difficult, but the resumes of Missouri, Texas, and VCU, all teams I project to play in Dayton, were pretty clearly on the inside of the field. The last spot, however, was very difficult. I started the day with Stanford as the Last Team In. Their 49 WAB is a little lower than I'd like, but five Quadrant 1 wins and a winning Quadrant 1+2 record looked attractive...until they lost to Pitt, which will knock their WAB out of the top-50 and gives them a fourth Quadrant 3 loss. After that, it was between Indiana, SMU, and Virginia Tech. I didn't like picking the Hoosiers, but they had better top-end wins and a better WAB than SMU. Ultimately, this spot will likely be taken by a bid thief, but as it stands we're going with Indiana.
Here is the Seed List and Bracket as it stands: