Starting lineup questions still persist after Raptors rout of Pacers
Even though the Raptors starting lineup had slowly crept back into respectability prior to tonight’s tip off (they were a slight positive at +1.3 per 100 possessions, across 229 of them) it was a a return to a lesser form to kick things off. Unable to solve the Pacers, who were staying at home defensively, and slumping from downtown, the Raptors found themselves in a hole early. A lot of the possessions were funneled to Brandon Ingram to try and solve back-end-of-the-shot-clock problems with his mid-range jumper – and he did a passable job to keep the Raptors afloat.
However, the stars of the first quarter, as ever, was the bench. Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles and Gradey Dick checked in to go on their big, customary run. This time, like many other times, being spurred on by the shooting and driving of Mamu – who was a livewire on offense. A handful of +11’s and +12’s later, the Raptors found themselves up by 3 heading into the second quarter.
It’s been maybe the most pressing question of the Raptors season so far: What are the diminishing returns of talent when you’re not able to satisfy fit?
The Raptors keep running into funky alignments on offense and closed off space. Coming into this game, per synergy, RJ Barrett was seeing help on his drives at the highest rate in the NBA (86%). Immanuel Quickley was 5th. This is, of course, a result of how teams help off of Scottie Barnes & Jakob Poeltl in the starting lineup minutes. Barnes sees the same thing as well as a driver, but operates at a much lower volume. He didn’t hit a field goal in the first half (16 minutes 0/4 shooting). They couldn’t space for him to roll, he saw extra attention on ball, and he was left as a “prove it” 3-point shooter if he wanted any volume. Tough. So, when guys like Mamukelashvili and Dick, in particular, come into the game? Seas are suddenly parting.
Of course, spacing comes in different forms and you can punish teams that sag off with different types of handoffs, that should help Quickley, Barrett and Poeltl more than most. The Raptors desperately need their starting lineup to play more often together – not only to gel and improve their timing and sequencing of offensive actions, but to gather data for teambuilding decisions into the future. I don’t envy Coach Darko’s position, where he has to simultaneously balance this dynamic while knowing how successful the transitional bench lineups have been. It’s early though, and the Raptors starting lineup has enough talent and money tied up in it that it deserves a long runway.
Anyway. The transitional lineups were there in the first quarter, and they were there once again in the second quarter to allow the Raptors to snap off a huge run. The starters were a -8 in their 8 minutes across the first half, and basically every other lineup configuration found a way to win their minutes or draw even. That’s how they managed to cobble together a 9-point lead (62-53) at halftime. The Pacers were incredibly reliant on Pascal Siakam (18 points on 12 shots) and Andrew Nembhard (13 points on 8 shots) to muster up offense. But, that’s to be expected. The Pacers team has blown up with injuries to start this season, and that’s without even looking at the Tyrese Haliburton of it all. Pure wizardry from Siakam & Nembhard to keep the Pacers around.
Barrett led the Raptors in scoring at the half, showcasing great resolve as a driver, and finally hitting a 3-point shot after going 0-12 across a few games – he’d also hit a second one early in the third quarter as the Raptors kicked off a 9-0 run. Poeltl really turned things around as a big, massive target man to throw the ball into and expect finishes. He had 13 points on 6/6 shooting over his first 15 minutes of play. For a Raptors team that was struggling to bang triples? Especially the starting lineup? Being able to throw the ball into Poeltl and have him sort out the interior scoring helped paper over a lot of their offensive limitations. A little bit of a reminder of when Poeltl’s short-rolling and dunker spot cutting was a huge fulcrum of the Raptors offense in early 24-25. It wasn’t a definitive answer to the Raptors starting lineup questions, given that the Pacers are uber-injured and were 1-11 coming into this game, but I was glad to see the Raptors starting lineup control the game to start the second half.
Once the transitional lineups hit the floor for the Raptors again, the pace of the game really heightened and the floor opened up. Both teams started exchanging transition buckets, but it was the Raptors who were more efficient and running out more often. Murray-Boyles reached double-digit scoring in as many minutes and it was largely due to being a run out guy. Lobs, layups, laydowns, whatever you needed – he was a great outlet. When the game got fast, both teams got foul happy, and the Pacers crept in a little bit closer due to much more accurate free throw shooting. A Jay Huff pick n’ pop three brought the Raptors lead all the way back to 7 points.
The Raptors returned to transition, with three straight Dick layups (one after he picked Jarace Walker’s dribble) and an 8-0 run to create a nice 15-point buffer once again. From there? The game rattled and clanked like a slowly dying car. It did serve as a nice little patch of play that Barnes could juice his stats with, but I couldn’t find anything to glean from the back end of the fourth quarter. Dick missed three triples, which was disappointing. Think he’s at roughly 35-percent on the season now, which isn’t good enough. It doesn’t matter what else happens, he has to shoot better.
On the whole though, the Raptors bludgeoned the Pacers in the paint and won that way. They more than doubled the Pacers with points in the paint. They ran them out of the gym, and put their foot on the gas pedal with a deeper roster. They ran away with it. Laughing.
Now at 8-5, 7-1 in their last 8, the Raptors have a a bit of a softball schedule ahead of themselves. They have no firm answers on their starting lineup yet, but they have a great opportunity to figure some things out over the next few weeks. We’ll see.
Another tick in the win column. 4-1 on the road trip.
Have a blessed day.
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