How will the Raptors stagger their starting lineup?

We’re halfway through the pre-season for the Toronto Raptors, and we haven’t yet seen their full starting lineup in effect. We’ve seen glimpses of potential: a nice connection between Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes working together in pick-and-rolls, but with no Jakob Poeltl, we have been left to imagine what it would look like all together.

Developing chemistry quickly within the starting group is crucial for this team to reach its full potential this season; that much is obvious. Last year’s starters (with Gradey Dick instead of Brandon Ingram) played in just eight games and had a net rating of -9.2. Not good, Bob!

But, perhaps just as important as the starting group is how the Raptors’ rotation will shake out when they are fully healthy. Staggering those starters and finding the right combination of players to rotate between in a 48-minute game is what creates a flow to both your offense and defense. You have to nail that aspect, especially if, as head coach Darko Rajakovic suggested in training camp, the Raptors plan on playing deep into their bench.

“It’s not going to be an easy decision night in and night out,” Rajakovic said. “But that’s a problem I’m looking forward to having. The competition inside the team is really going to help guys stay constantly on. I like to play 10 guys and even 11 guys in the rotation.”

So, what could the potential staggered starters be? I spoke to Rajakovic after practice on Saturday to try to read the tea leaves about a possible rotation. Of course, a coach will always keep things close to the chest, but Rajakovic was candid about what he’s looking for.

“When you start staggering guys, you have to make sure that you always have at least two capable ball handlers on the floor,” Rajakovic told me. “The other thing is some players are better playing three stints and some are better playing longer stretches and finding their rhythm that way.”

I won’t bore you with the complete breakdown of three-stints versus long stretches, but it’s pretty self-explanatory: throughout the first half of basketball, some guys like to play three, shorter stints and go all out, and others want to play two extended stretches.

“Scottie is always three stints,” Rajakovic told me when I asked him for an example. “Scottie usually gets out around seven minutes into the first. He plays so hard on both ends of the floor, guarding the best players on the opposing team, which demands a lot of physical exhaustion.”

That tracks with the data. Of the starting group, Barnes played the most minutes with just one more starter on the floor. Rajakovic told me he expects Barnes to, again, lead bench-filled groups in transitional lineups. “I believe so. Scottie is really good with the second unit because of his versatility.”

So tea-leave #1: expect Scottie to carry bench lineups, again.

Typically, throughout a game, starters are divided into groups of two or three. Last season, even in an injury-riddled year, Barrett and Poeltl were paired together the most, playing 1024 minutes alongside one another. The two of them formed a formidable duo; Poeltl’s screening unlocked Barrett’s downhill game, and Barrett’s improved playmaking helped Poeltl to a career year in scoring.

The numbers don’t lie here. Barrett assisted Poeltl the most on the team and vice versa last season.

“Jak, in general, is good with everybody on the floor,” Rajakovic told me. “He has a great connection with Gradey as well. So I like to see them on the floor together. Same with RJ and him with their pick-and-roll connection.”

That makes sense for both offensive and defensive reasons. Jakob doesn’t space the floor, but when paired with Gradey, they can run a lot of empty-side actions, where Jakob can catch the ball, flow into a dribble-hand-off with Gradey, and because Poeltl’s defender is typically camped in the paint, Gradey will have daylight to shoot the ball.

A similar play happened between Collin Murray-Boyles and Ja’Kobe Walter on Wednesday night versus the Kings.

Ok, tea-leave #2: Barrett, Gradey, and Jakob will be paired together frequently, specifically Gradey and Jakob.

But Barrett, the conduit, has also quickly developed chemistry with Ingram. Rajakovic told the media on Friday, before the team faced off against the Boston Celtics, that the combination of skills Ingram and Barrett provide is what helps amplify their playstyles. Ingram’s on-ball prowess complements RJ’s off-ball movement well. The fact that they’re both capable ballhandlers ticks off one of the prerequisites for what Rajakovic looks for in any given lineup.

“I think BI is a kind of player that can do whatever the team needs him to on the court,” Rajakovic said. “Obviously, things change on a night-to-night basis, but he fits in with basically any lineup.”

Tea-Leave #3: Ingram won’t be married to a specific non-starter lineup. Wherever the team needs him, he’ll be.

Where does that leave Quickley?

“Quickley in pick-and-roll with him (Jakob) is better than Quickley with the second unit guys,” Rajakovic said.

Tea-leave #4: Quickley and Poeltl are a good combination, and it’s unlikely that Quickley will be asked to carry bench-driven groups as much.

The overall consensus is that Poeltl and Barnes are crucial to this team’s functioning (surprise!). The Raptors’ only positive two-man lineup last season that played more than 600 minutes together was those two sharing the court. How Ingram elevates that aspect, or even alleviates some of the pressure off those two, will be essential to see.

More than anything, perhaps the biggest takeaway is how the Raptors’ ultra-aggressive, high-intensity style will force them to play deeper, a trend that Rajakovic is seeing around the league.

“In order to play that way, you have to play deeper in the rotation,” Rajakovic said. “A lot of teams around the league are starting to pick up full court, and we did that last season and found a lot of success. At the same time, guys have to give all full effort on both ends of the floor, which I think is the right way to play. It ends up being very hard for offensive teams to play against that constant pressure. It wears down opponents, and that’s a big thing we want to do.”

Of course, injuries always throw a wrench into everything. That’s even more the case when you play as physically as this team aspires to. The Raptors are already dealing with injuries to Ulrich Chomche, Jakob Poeltl, and Collin Murray-Boyles, who hurt his elbow on Friday night versus the Celtics.

Does any of that become frustrating for Rajakovic as he tries to find the right combinations?

“I think for us, it’s important to look at the big picture. We have a full season ahead of us to figure out how the starters are going to play. We are right where we need to be.”

Will we see that starting group play together at some point this pre-season?

“I hope so,” Rajakovic said.

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