LeBron’s best, most realistic chance to win is still next to Luka Dončić on the Lakers
Speculation about LeBron James leaving the Lakers for a better chance to win is seemingly ignoring a pretty big factor: the Lakers still have Luka Dončić, who is primed to have a huge season.
Ever since he sat down at the Boys and Girls club on live television back in the summer of 2010 to let the world know that he was spurning his hometown Cavaliers and “taking his talents to South Beach” to play with the Heat, there has been an ever-present fascination about LeBron’s general happiness on his current team and whether he was one step away from leaving to go somewhere else.
LeBron, of course, has helped fuel that intrigue by actually changing teams every five to seven years, using short-term contracts as a both cudgel of control and pathway to potentially leaving in free agency, and by passive-aggressively — or sometimes just aggressively — voicing his displeasure with the state of his roster not just in the hopes of inspiring improvements but as a not so subtle hint that he could always make the situation worse by simply walking out that door to a new team.
This history, combined with Rich Paul’s comments in the wake of LeBron opting into the final year of his two-year contract, had many around the league wondering about the state of the union between James and the Lakers. Paul’s full statement was respectful and spoke to the mutually beneficial partnership both sides have enjoyed over the past eight years, but also left a lot of room for observers to question whether James was ready to move on (emphasis added):
“LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.
“We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what’s best for him.”
Even though Paul somewhat walked back those comments in a clarifying statement and then later added that LeBron’s simply going to “enjoy (his) summer” and that they are not going to come out and refute or offer rebuttals to what is said by others about what James will or won’t do, or that LeBron is expected to start the season on the Lakers this season, that these questions remain out there or that people are going to continue to push for LeBron to leave the team are a product of both LeBron’s history and, well, Paul’s original comments.
So, maybe we should unpack what Paul said when James opted into his deal. Because, while I think it’s fair to say that the Lakers aren’t quite a sure-fire title contender right now, I also do not believe they are as far away as some analysts might make it seem.
Yes, the Thunder are the reigning champs and both Houston and the Nuggets have made the types of improvements they believe will elevate them in the race to dethrone OKC. But the Lakers are credible threats vs. all those teams, and with more time to build together and some additional tweaks to their roster, I think they can position themselves to challenge at the top of the conference and have at least a puncher’s chance in any playoff series.
But don’t take my word for it, take Steve Nash’s. In a recent live show of the “Mind the Game” podcast with LeBron, Nash credited James for how he sacrificed his game this season while playing next to Luka, and added that the team was closer than their first round exit implies.
“It was slammed together quick, but I think we saw the seeds of a team that was this close to going deep in the playoffs and making a run for a title. As that roster builds, the possibility is there. You can’t do that unless you’re willing to sacrifice and grow, and play slightly different; play in a way that complements your teammates. So, my advice would be those two things. Continue to find that sacrifice. It’s not like (LeBron’s) numbers dipped. He just did it in different ways.”
Nash pumping up his podcast partner who was on stage with him is the type of assist he was known for in his playing days, but I don’t think he was being dishonest or disingenuous either. After all, the Lakers were the No. 3 seed and won 50 games last season, and did that while making two significant and rotation-altering trades while also dealing with injuries to Davis, Luka and then LeBron that cost each of them time out of the lineup throughout the season.
Beyond those factors, I would argue that the version of Luka the team got last season was not the perennial First Team All-NBA level guy who teams were aghast would be traded in the first place. Dončić still flashed his greatness and had some signature games and moments, but the combination of coming back from the injury that cost him so much time and the shocking nature of the trade itself clearly had Luka playing at a notch below his normal level.
With Luka reportedly in better shape and carrying the sort of edge that he’s known to play with whenever there is any sort of disrespect or doubt thrown his way, I’d bet on Dončić not just returning to prior form, but potentially having the sort of year that catapults him back into the conversation of best player in the league.
If there’s one player to hitch your wagon to for just next season, is there a better candidate than Luka? I’d argue there’s no player who is both as talented and has as much to prove — while having the motivation to actually go out and prove it — as him, and considering he’s a historically great playoff riser who has already taken a team to the Finals, he seems like a damn good partner for James.
This is particularly the case at this stage of LeBron’s career, where lessening his burden as a shot creator and simultaneously luring away the other team’s perimeter defensive players on a night-to-night basis is something Luka is uniquely equipped to do.
Luka is also someone who can absorb as much usage as needed and is a wonderful playmaker and passer who consistently helps his teammates get better shots. LeBron, like so many other teammates of Luka’s over the years, should get better opportunities offensively. And their chemistry and familiarity should only grow with a full training camp and more court time together to learn the nuances of playing together.
Forgetting the benefits of playing with Luka for a moment, though, I think it’s also important to understand the challenges LeBron would face in even getting to another team that could offer him a realistic chance at a title.
Trading for him remains a challenge due to his huge contract and there are few, if any, teams in the league who are both already at — or close enough to — contender status and equipped to send out enough salary in a trade without stripping away too much of the talent that makes them championship contenders in the first place.
Are there possible deals? Sure. And his no-trade clause gives him leverage in such negotiations. But if the hope is that the Lakers make a severely imbalanced trade just to accommodate James, I’d imagine they’d not be very eager to do that. Remember, the Lakers are also trying to compete at a high level and have championship aspirations of their own.
I also do not believe they’d want to buy LeBron out and let him hit the open market to be a free agent. It’s not only financially imprudent to eat his money owed, but it just doesn’t make sense to have him opt in to his contract only to then pay him tens of millions of dollars to become the free agent he could have been by not opting in at all.
Remember, too, that a buyout doesn’t necessarily give LeBron access to the entirety of the league, especially if it happens after the season begins. Due to the apron rules, teams above either of the first or second apron would not be able to sign him unless it were to happen during the offseason (like what just occurred with Bradley Beal). Again, not impossible, but just another limiting factor.
So, of course, anything can happen. And because it’s LeBron, that feels like an extra weighty caveat and we’d be silly to ignore.
But when considering all these limitations, it’s hard to imagine easily accessible avenues opening up for LeBron to change teams and land on a true-blue title contender. It’s not impossible, but it is difficult.
And then, when you add that the prospect of playing next to one of the game’s great young superstars who also has all the motivation in the world to have an amazing year, it feels like the Lakers are a more natural choice for LeBron to really compete next year.
You can follow Darius on BlueSky at @forumbluegold and find more of his Lakers coverage on the Laker Film Room Podcast.