Stanley Cup Final prediction for Oilers vs. Panthers rematch

The Panthers and Oilers are running it back.

We’re running it back, folks. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are once again in the Stanley Cup Final, proving they’re the class of the Eastern and Western Conferences, with everyone still playing catchup.

On the surface these teams look very similar in construction to their 2024 counterparts, but there are some key changes for both the Oilers and Panthers that could tilt this series. Florida is trying to go back-to-back, and join the 2021 and 2022 Tampa Bay Lightning to assert the state’s hockey dominance in recent years. Meanwhile there’s crushing pressure on the Oilers to not only get Connor McDavid a Cup, but become the first Canadian team to win the championship since the Montreal Canadiens in 1993.

Offense

This has always been the Oilers’ strength, and that hasn’t changed. Nobody matches the one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl when it comes to star power and individual ability amongst forwards — but this year Edmonton’s lines run deeper. Corey Perry has really found a place in the shuffle this postseason and has seven goals during the playoffs. Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor Brown are also out-performing their play in the postseason last year.

What this means is a more diverse offensive lineup from the Oilers, but there is a problem here: The injury to Zach Hyman. Hyman has been Edmonton’s most important star this postseason as he’s shown the kind of toughness lacking in the majority of the Oilters forwards, and someone who can match up to Florida’s physicality. It’s expected Hyman will miss the rest of the playoffs following surgery — and that is a major hit on Edmonton.

Meanwhile, offense for the Panthers stems from their brutality. The entire Florida game hinges on causing chaos on the forecheck, opening up mistakes and breakaway chances as a result. What makes this team so difficult to defense against is their shot efficiency. A staggering 13 skaters have a shot percentage of 15% of greater these playoffs, meaning they don’t just get opportunities — but make the most of them.

In addition, the Panthers made arguably the most impactful trade deadline deal by acquiring Brad Marchand. Tailor made for Florida’s style of hockey, Marchand is a grinder who opens up opportunities on offense and has become a key third line distributor to that overwhelms line depth. Perhaps his best characteristic is how frustrating he can be, and that could cause massive issues for Edmonton.

Edge: Edmonton Oilers. That’s not a knock on the Panthers, but even with Hyman out the Oilers have the individual talent to generate chances, and the depth this year to match up better on the third and fourth line.

Defense

When it comes to defense Edmonton is ... fine. Obviously they have enough chops to make it to the Stanley Cup Final, and you can’t truly be bad defensively and make it this far. That said it’s far from something you’d tout as a difference maker this series.

The Oilers’ entire scheme runs off just stopping enough goals. That’s it. Edmonton averaged 2.78 goals allowed over the playoffs, and scored 4.06 per game. At some point it’s just down to simple math, and this teams knows it. To Edmonton the best defense is a good offense, and that’s more or less how they got to this point.

Florida is another beast entirely. That’s what makes this matchup so fascinating. The stone walls of the playoffs, the Panthers allowed a preposterously low 2.11 goals per game in the postseason, and that came without Sergei Bobrovsky playing his best between the pipes. The way the Panthers run their forecheck means it’s often like playing against five defenders on the ice. Their strategy is to press, shrink the attack, and turn the game into half-ice hockey where ideally their goaltender never sees the puck unless absolutely necessary.

It might seem simple, but literally nobody has been able to truly break through and assert their will on Florida. Their style of play forces everyone to try to match them, and as we’ve seen in every sport ever, the team that gets to dictate the play is the one that ends up winning out.

Edge: Florida Panthers. Not just an edge, but a massive one. The Oilers can’t come close to matching the Panthers defensively. It’s all about whether or not they can score enough to put pressure on the Panthers.

Goaltending

Neither team made adjustments here, and while that makes perfect sense for Florida — it’s mystifying that we’re back in the cup with Stuart Skinner being Edmonton’s best option.

While it’s true Skinner gets an unfair wrap because of the often porous defense in front of him, he’s also has seriously lapses in play where he can Jekyll and Hyde his way through a playoff series. Early in the playoffs he was benched for poor play, only to regain the job due to injury. Skinner has been phenomenal since returning to the ice, but he can still be inconsistent, and that’s a problem in a grueling series.

Sergei Bobrovsky is still a beast when it comes to Florida. Bob has definitely taken a step back this year largely due to age (he’s 36 now), but remains one of the most unflappable goaltenders in the NHL. Whether the score is 0-0 or the Panthers are down 3-0, Bob plays exactly the same way — which is a massive credit to him.

Being a good goaltender means stopping the shots you should, and having a defense that makes it difficult for people to get off quality shots. It’s a holistic approach, and there’s only one team that does this perfectly.

Edge: Florida Panthers. While Skinner has been playing extremely well recently, this is still Bob’s world and we’re living in it. He’s only allowed 2.11 goals per game this postseason to Skinner’s 2.53, and that comes despite Florida playing better offensive teams.

Strategy

This is where the chasm between these teams really opens up. Florida is the most infuriating team in the playoffs, constantly benefitting from loose playoff officiating that lets them get away with more than teams would in the regular season.

Playing dirty is a feature, not a bug when it comes to the Panthers. They know exactly what they’re doing, and coach Paul Maurice has leveraged his knowledge of looser “let them play” officiating to gain one of the most profound edges in hockey.

If you’re an opponent there’s simply no good way to counter it. If you try to match the Panthers’ intensity (and the Hurricanes did) you’ll fail, because their roster was constructed for this and you’re playing a loose facsimile of it. If you try to just play your own game and ignore what they do then you’re going to get turned into a fine paste by their buzzsaw forecheck and brutal defense.

The Oilers definitely made roster improvements since the last time these teams met, but they’re still not physical enough to flip this series.

Edge: Florida Panthers. Nobody has developed a better strategy for handling the game than Florida. Unless something happens and they start getting called for triple as many penalties then they will win out in strategy as well.

Final Prediction

Nothing would be greater than seeing a Canadian team finally hoist the Stanley Cup for the first time in decades. That said, it’s difficult to see a path through this without Zach Hyman. The Oilers desperately needed him to set the tone on their forecheck, and without his play this feels a lot like how the series played out last year.

Florida is just built different. This team is so deep, so aggressive, and so infuriating that it will take a mammoth effort from Edmonton’s forwards to get quick goals and put pressure on the Panthers. That’s an outside shot at best, and I think Florida is running this one back.

Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2