Without Cooper Flagg, where do the Raptors go from here?

“Where is the horse and the rider? Where is the horn that was blowing?” asked Theoden, King of Rohan. “How did it come to this?”

Every road must end. 

For the Toronto Raptors, a long, multi-year journey brought them to this destination. Mismanagement and the screams of a child ended an era in 2023. Then the Raptors had two seasons of rebuild. The tanking in 2025 was, at times, blatant. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby were cast off the boat, new players were drafted en masse, and all for a shot at culminating in Cooper Flagg. 

That didn’t happen. Now, the Raptors are more or less who they’re going to be for the medium-term future. It’s time to try to win games and live with whatever happens. 

How did it come to this?

The point is, there comes a time in every journey when the road ends. When it’s time to make a stand with what you have. And, sure, it’s very possible that’s not this moment for the Raptors. There could be more road, a sneaky hidden path. But it’s not obvious from where more tricks, external improvement, added talent, etc. will come. The Raptors will, at some point, have to dance with the girl that brung them. 

That seems increasingly like it’s going to be now. Toronto’s out of rope, out of road, and ready to face the music. Let’s just throw every metaphor at the page here.

Don’t get me wrong. The Raptors have a good team. In fact, if all goes well, it will be a very good team. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram could be terrific co-stars. Maybe Immanuel Quickley could still pop. There are oodles of young and promising players in Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, and many more. If all goes well, the team could add 15, even 20 wins to its total from last season. 

The problem is that ‘very good’ is still quite a ways away from contention in this always improving NBA. Just ask the Houston Rockets, or the Los Angeles Lakers, or any other flawed-but-very-good team that Toronto realistically is trailing. And that last jump, from very good to excellent? That’s the hardest jump to make. 

Toronto could still hit on a late first-round pick, a la Tyrese Maxey or Pascal Siakam, and find a franchise-altering player in the future. More possible is that this ninth-overall pick will yield that player. Maybe Toronto trades for a megastar — although if the Raptors want to get involved in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, or those for any other beleaguered star in the future, it would be near-impossible for the Raps to top an offer made by the Oklahoma City Thunder, Rockets, or San Antonio Spurs. None of those are likely — because other teams are trying to walk all those paths, too.

Which is why it would have been nice to simply have added Flagg. He represented that readymade jump to contention for Toronto. 

So there was no pot of gold at the end of the rebuild rainbow for Toronto. That’s life; there usually isn’t. The only problem is that this franchise-rebuilding process seemed to hinge on the existence of that pot of gold. Because Toronto isn’t competing with itself; it is also competing with every other franchise in the league. And there are several others that seem to have the Midas Touch, are drowning in pots of gold, and have far more talent on the roster than Toronto can conceivably acquire. This was Toronto’s one home-run chance. A 7.5-percent chance, but still. 

Now the team will have to do it the hard way. The Raptors won’t have another chance at the first-overall pick in coming years, as the team will be far too good to miss the playoffs. (Losing guarantees nothing anyway — just ask the Utah Jazz or Washington Wizards.) So the only option left is doing the hard, long, strenuous work of team-building. No easy answers. Just making the correct choice, over and over, for years at a time. (Like Toronto did from 2014-2019.)

The Raptors need to nail the number-nine pick. We’ll have tons of coverage in coming weeks, but the goal will be that whomever Toronto picks becomes a high-level starter, if not a star. Maybe Derik Queen falls. Toronto needs to nail free agency. Again, much more work on that in coming weeks from Raptors Republic, but if any of Nickeil Alexander Walker, Malcolm Brogdon, D’Angelo Russell, or Tre Jones could be had with the mid-level exception, such guards (at that price) could do wonders on this team. 

And, of course, the most important part of that team-building process is internal improvement. Barnes has to become more efficient and create better looks for himself. Quickley has to drive deeper and create layups for teammates. Dick has to add strength and become at least a survivable defender. And on and on. If all that happens, and Toronto builds slowly, and keeps adding, and manages its assets, and drafts well, and — well, years down the line, there’s probably a chance of something special. 

Building from the middle is hard in the NBA. It’s been done, but it’s hard. Many pundits point to the Raptors’ own 2019 championship as a successful example of building from the middle. But those Raptors had won 59 games previous, and at least 48 for four consecutive years prior to that. This iteration of the Raptors have precisely zero 40-win seasons to their name.

Let’s be honest about these Raptors. The most likely result for this team is to win 45 (or so) games next season, perhaps a few more the year after, and eventually to be dismantled for another rebuild. To go the same way as the Siakam-Anunoby-Fred VanVleet core. That’s life for teams in the NBA, but that’s especially life for teams like the Raptors who lack both certain future stars (beyond Barnes) and a hoard of future first-round draft picks beyond their own. 

Still. I will be happy to watch that team. Not to editorialize, but it will be a very nice change from covering a 25- and 30-win team in back-to-back years. My framing in this piece may be negative, but in my mind there’s more, ya know, honour in winning 50 games and trying than winning 30 games and … not. But Masai Ujiri has explicitly said his goal is a championship or nothing. And the Raptors don’t have a clear path to a championship in coming seasons. Not when the Thunder, Spurs, and others are lurking. I can enjoy non-championship but still good basketball. Will the Raptors?

Of course, in Lord of the Rings, Theoden was saved by the very riders he had cast out of his kingdom when under maleficent influences. Deus ex machina certainly does happen in real life — just ask the Mavericks, goofy traders of Luka Doncic yet soon-to-be employers of Cooper Flagg — but does it happen for teams like the Raptors? 

Toronto had a chance at this rebuild ending in style. A 7.5-percent chance, to be precise. That’s gone. So where does Toronto go from here? The rebuild is over, and there won’t be any shortcuts. Now the long, hard road of building from the middle begins. 

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