Warriors vs Timberwolves Playoffs Series Preview: The last stand of the old guard against a rising superstar

A short turnaround toward another big and athletic team.

Believe it or not, all four of the Golden State Warriors’ matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the regular season came prior to the trade deadline — and thus, prior to Jimmy Butler’s arrival in the Bay Area.

That makes it a bit tough to assess this series based on past matchups, both on a statistical and eye-test basis. The Warriors went 3-1 against the Wolves with a roster that still had Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and Dennis Schröder. The Wolves were in the midst of an up-and-down stretch for what seemed like the majority of their season, before going toe-to-toe with the Warriors in the standings after the trade deadline. When the Warriors (with Butler) were stringing wins, the Wolves were with them along the way, each one refusing to budge. Eventually, the Warriors blinked and settled for a seventh-seed finish, while the Wolves avoided having to play extra play-in games with a sixth-seed finish. Furthermore, they were able to dispose of the Los Angeles Lakers in five games, in a series that most pundits did not having them winning.

The early finish by the Wolves has not only allowed them to rest six days — it’s a full six days of staying home, by virtue of finishing a seed higher than the Warriors, who are now forced to travel from Houston to Minnesota with only one day of respite. Furthermore, each game in the series will only have one day of rest up till after Game 5, where the Warriors will have three days of rest before Game 6 — that is, if they manage to reach that point. Tired old legs after a grueling seven-game battle with the Houston Rockets will most probably play a part in Game 1 of this second-round series. If the Warriors eke out at least one win on the road like they managed to do against the Rockets, that will be a much desirable outcome for them.

That won’t be easy, given that they’ll be facing a rising superstar in Anthony Edwards, who has the distinction of having Kevin Durant and LeBron James as scalps in his playoff career. Edwards will be looking to add Steph Curry as his third to complete his collection of OG scalps. Edwards won’t be alone in his efforts: another tall and athletic team will be thrown the Warriors’ way, one that plays more conventional and traditional schemes on defense but employs more two-way players than the Rockets. Rudy Gobert will make it difficult for the rim-scoring-challenged Warriors; Julius Randle provides additional scoring from the frontline; Jaden McDaniels and every bit of his 6’9” frame and 7-foot wingspan will most certainly be employed to try to get Curry off kilter; Mike Conley’s experience and steadiness will be tough to face against; Naz Reid has always been a notorious Warrior killer and is among the best sixth men in the league, if not the best.

That is not to say the Warriors don’t have a shot at making it out of the second round. But it feels like plenty of things will have to fall in place for that to happen. The offense begins and ends with Curry, as it always has; it behooves the Warriors to find ways to benefit from Curry’s presence on the floor, with Butler as the second option and release valve against the pressure Curry receives. Draymond Green will be the tone setter on defense, but he has to deal with another tall frontline, one that will most certainly take a toll on his severely undersized, 35-year-old frame as a 6’6” center (perhaps this will be a much better Kevon Looney and Quinten Post series).

Another series with the disadvantage in terms of age, athleticism, and size — nothing new for the Warriors, nothing that makes it easier, and plenty that’ll make it much, much tougher than their first-round series. But it’s a challenge the Warriors find themselves in due to developments of their own making. It’s time for them, once again, to problem-solve their way out of it.

Projected starting lineups

Statistical matchup

Attacking the Wolves’ defense

The Wolves’ defense is built upon an infrastructure that is simple and straightforward in its approach: having one of this generation’s best defenders in Rudy Gobert, a supreme rim protector who has the ability to wall off the paint and take the rim away completely. More importantly, unlike his tenure with the Utah Jazz, Gobert has the perimeter/point-of-attack support surrounding him to make his life a tad easier in that regard.

That has played a significant part in the Wolves finishing the regular season as the league’s sixth-best defensive unit, one that isn’t built on forcing turnovers but rather, shoring up in the half court, containing at the point of attack, and having the option to funnel the ball toward Gobert. While the Wolves were middling in terms of opponent rim attempt rate (16th), that is a function of funneling drives toward Gobert and counting on him to either discourage shots up close or send them away. That has been reflected in the fact that opponents shot just 64.2% at the rim against the Wolves — the third stingiest mark in the regular season. Gobert was obviously the anchor behind that mark: opponents shot just 51.9% at the rim against Gobert in the regular season, fourth stingiest among players who played at least 49 games and defended at least four shots at the rim per game, per Second Spectrum data provided by the NBA’s official stats tracking. The Lakers shot just 45.5% at the rim against Gobert in the first round.

As such, it’s the Warriors’ job to move the Wolves’ defense around and constantly force them to have to make tough coverage choices. That includes forcing Gobert to have to move around, preferably away from his comfort zone near the rim. But what makes that tough to accomplish is the number of competent on-ball defenders surrounding Gobert — in particular, McDaniels, who will most certainly take on the Curry assignment during this series. McDaniels’ ability to navigate screens and get over them allows Gobert to be comfortable playing drop coverage, all while everyone else around them feels little need to rotate.

Until the Warriors force the Wolves’ hand by constantly forcing Gobert to have to step up higher in screening situations (or even switch), the Warriors will find it difficult to get any sort of offense going, especially at the rim, where their historically low attempt rate (26th in the RS) and middling finishing rate (17th in the RS) serve as additional handicaps. The easiest way to get Gobert out of position: constantly getting stops, speeding up play, and running the floor — although the Wolves profile as one of the more effective teams at getting back on defense after missing a shot.

Otherwise, screens for Curry will have to free him enough to punish Gobert’s drop coverage, whether it’s on the ball courtesy of pick-and-roll reps:

Or off the ball via off-ball screening actions (it should be noted that the Wolves gave up 1.04 PPP on off-ball screen actions during the regular season — sixth highest in the NBA, while also having to defend a high volume of such play types).

Emptying one side of the court for Curry and a pick-and-roll partner to work with — and putting every bit of pressure on Gobert to defend the ball and the roll — may also be worth looking at.

Through a bit of screening ingenuity, the Warriors may also be able to coax a late switch from Gobert. Although Gobert’s chops as a switch big is underrated by most (i.e., if he has to switch, Gobert can hold his own, as evidenced by how he was able to survive against Luka Dončić on switches out on the perimeter), the Wolves highly prefer if he wasn’t drawn away from the paint. Curry’s ability to create space and pull up within a matter of milliseconds means late switches are dangerous for Gobert and the Wolves.

If the Warriors can make Gobert move, that will translate into the entire Wolves defense moving and being put in rotation — and that will make it much more difficult for them to put out fires.

More importantly, it’ll get those who need to be open off of Curry’s gravitational pull the looks they’ll need (including Curry himself). Gobert will be tough to budge away from the paint, but he can’t be everywhere all at once. That gives Curry the platform to spark an advantage situation; amid such chaos, the Wolves will be hard pressed to cover all of their bases.

Getting shots up from the perimeter, let alone generating good looks, will be key for the Warriors, who finished the regular season as the team with the second-highest three-point attempt rate in the NBA. The Wolves’ defense profiled as a team who gave up the seventh-lowest opponent three-point rate.

Suffice to say, with Gobert off the floor, opponents’ rim attempt rate increases by nearly six percentage points — from a 77th percentile opponent rim attempt rate to a 16th percentile rim attempt rate. Wolves head coach Chris Finch has shown that he has no qualms sitting Gobert if he does the Wolves’ offense no favors. While putting a more offensively potent frontcourt of Reid and Randle can be beneficial, the tradeoff on the other end means the paint and the rim can become much more accessible for the Warriors.

Defending the Wolves’ offense

Slowing down a Wolves offense that was eighth in points per possession during the regular season means finding solutions to Edwards, whose shooting leap this season has been stratospheric. Not only is he shooting a better percentage on threes (from 35.7% last season to 39.5% this season) — he’s also increased his three-point volume, attempting 10.3 attempts per contest (up from his previous career high of 8.4), an efficiency and volume tandem reminiscent of Curry himself.

Edwards’ evolution as a pull-up threat means coverages against him have become much more diversified, especially with the added threat of him as a rim attacker who can explode past the point of attack and break the paint. Being surrounded by capable spot-up shooters means Edwards can also spray kick-out passes toward the perimeter to punish defenses collapsing upon his drives. Once an area of improvement for him, he has become a more effective passer off of the advantages he creates (although he is still far from being a bona fide elite passer, his capability in that regard is trending upward).

This is where there might be a problem for the Warriors in terms of who to designate as Edwards’ primary defender. That role was occupied by Wiggins for all but one of their bouts in the regular season. Wiggins had the requisite length to bother Edwards during isolation possessions, while also being capable of navigating screens to keep up with Edwards whenever the Wolves ran one of their off-ball screening actions for the young superstar. The problem, however, is quite obvious: Wiggins is now a Miami Heat.

If the Warriors keep their current starting lineup that employs a Curry-Hield-Podziemski three-guard grouping, they may find it difficult to contain Edwards. There’s also the possibility of Moses Moody being deployed in Hield’s place in order to serve as Edwards’ defender. But doing so requires rolling the dice on Moody’s offense, which has been in a quagmire. Other than Moody, the other bench piece that has previously seen success in keeping up with Edwards has been Gary Payton II.

While Payton gives up a bit of size, he more than makes up for it with his ball-hawk tendencies and ability to slither past screens to stay on Edwards’ hip.

But while Payton provides the Warriors some optionality in terms of coverages — e.g., being able to stay on the conservative end of the spectrum and therefore minimizing the need for them to be put in rotation and in “blender” situations — the Wolves can be relentless in their constant rescreening and changing of screening angles, enough for even the most ardent of screen navigators to get hung up on a screen and lose Edwards in the process. If the screener defender finds himself in deep drop, Edwards can promptly make him pay.

The answer for Edwards may be to give him different coverage looks. Drop coverage isn’t discouraged, even if Edwards can thrive against it, if only for the Warriors to keep themselves out of rotation. Along with drop, mixing in the occasional hedge or trap (a Jerry Stackhouse special) could give Edwards plenty to think about and would dare him to cough the ball up and defer decision making to a teammate.

Traps are especially effective when the Warriors make use of an additional third “defender” — often an inanimate one, in the form of the half-court mark, the sideline, or baseline.

Gap help should also be on the table against Edwards’ middle drives. Sending a defender to stunt at the gaps and/or “nail” area will force Edwards to make a decision: either make the simple read and pass the ball to the man left open, or force the issue and power through multiple bodies and limbs.

The Wolves’ offense is more than just Edwards. Randle — the designated “replacement” for Karl-Anthony Towns — isn’t as hailed for his shooting as his predecessor, considering he shot 34.4% on threes during the regular season on 5.3 attempts per 75 possessions. Perhaps the Warriors will sort of live with a semi-open Randle on pick-and-pop possessions and will be content with soft, controlled closeouts. But Randle can drill such looks if given ample time and space to establish a rhythm.

Not to mention Randle being a regular source of post-up offense for the Wolves, who scored 1.09 PPP off of Randle post-ups in the regular season (albeit, those that end in him finishing such possessions), per Synergy tracking. That mark was fourth among 18 players who played at least 49 games and averaged a minimum of two post-ups per game. The Wolves help Randle by setting him up with mismatches, typically coaxed by him setting screens and eliciting a switch.

Or smaller screeners in “inverted” setups, on the ball or off it (such as the “wedge” action below), setting the picks for Randle. In any case, the Warriors should try their best not to give Randle the mismatches he wants on the blocks, especially against Curry. If the Warriors are able to stifle Randle and force him to become a passer, they’ll have done their jobs well.

Going back to the point of defending Randle pick-and-pops, the Wolves have another big on the roster in Reid who can stretch the floor, but who is a more efficient volume three-point shooter (37.9% on 7.8 attempts per 75 possessions) than Randle. With that in mind, the Warriors can’t afford to not cover their bases when it comes to picking up Reid in trail situations and having to cover his pop-outs in ball-screen situations.

Consider the difference between the lack of a “veer-back” switch above (something that Looney attempts to communicate to Hield, to no avail) and the presence of a veer-back switch below against Randle:

In some ways, the Warriors will be facing a mirror of themselves: a high-volume three-point shooting team who won’t hesitate to run their players off of screens (including their shooting bigs) to compound the pressure, with the slight difference being that the Wolves sprinkle in more spot-up opportunities for their standstill shooters. As much as possible, the Warriors should stay out of rotation; if they have no choice in that aspect, flying around and being sharp with their x-outs, close-outs, and taking away the three-point line without sacrificing the interior is the recipe for defensive success.

Who will round out the rotation?

Since the Warriors are facing another tall team with an enormous frontline, the Warriors’ center rotation will once again come into play. While the projected starting lineup shown at the start of this preview has Green and Butler at the five and four, respectively, I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Kerr opts to insert either Looney or Post at the five and slot Green in at the four, which would mean Green would be guarding Randle and either Looney or Post would be guarding Gobert. The obvious caveat to that would be the difficulty in creating space for Curry by giving him phonebooth spacing to work with.

Again, Moody may be an interchangeable piece with the starting lineup, depending on how Kerr approaches the Edwards situation. Payton was out with an illness against the Rockets in Game 7; the hope is that he’ll be sufficiently recovered in time for Kerr to have a proven option to send against Edwards.

Shoo-ins:

• Moses Moody
• Gary Payton II
• Kevon Looney

Conditional/situational

• Quinten Post
• Jonathan Kuminga (???)

X-factor: Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler

Green being this series’ x-factor banks not only on his ability to be this team’s defensive anchor while also finding ways to contribute on offense — it’s also about his ability to stay on the floor. He’s already accrued four technical fouls and two flagrant points in the playoffs; seven techs warrant a one-game suspension, while four flagrant points also warrant a one-game suspension. It also doesn’t help that he’ll be going up against a nemesis in Gobert, who Green has had an extensive verbal and physical history with. The Warriors can’t afford to have Green be suspended for a game or two.

Butler averaged 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists against the Rockets, all while shooting 50.9% on twos, 31.3% on threes, 84.1% on free throws, and 59.5% True Shooting, all while playing on a bruised rear end. Despite such respectable numbers, it didn’t feel like Butler was able to impose his will on the Rockets’ as he and the Warriors would’ve liked. Part of that was due to the injury, while part of it was the sheer physicality of the Rockets and how they were able to load up against Butler in his attempts to create shots in isolation.

Butler has the opportunity to impose his will against the Wolves, who will be seeing him in a Warriors uniform for the first time this season. Unlike the Rockets, the Wolves will only have film to go by in terms of how to contain Curry while also trying to shore up against Butler, who’s due for one of those explosive “Playoff Jimmy” scoring games that have become stuff of past legend. Whether that remains in the past or resurfaces will depend on how the Wolves defend Butler — and how he adjusts accordingly.

Prediction

Edwards has previously stated that the Warriors were one of his dream playoff matchups. He’ll be getting his wish, with an opportunity to add to his rising profile by getting past another all-time great in Curry, The Warriors will be there for Edwards’ taking, with only a single day of rest after a brutal seven-game series.

Is there a path for the Warriors to win this one? Of course — we’re talking about Curry, Green, and Butler, after all, three proven playoff commodities. Take just one of the first two games on the road and the path becomes slightly wider. Lose both of them and the path becomes as narrow as a tightrope. The margin for error is equally narrow, with the prospect of having to guard Edwards (i.e., who to guard him with, how to guard him, which coverages to send out, etc.) being a more daunting task compared to the Rockets, who didn’t have a primary option that could approximate Edwards’ talents.

The Warriors may have to stretch this series to another seven games for them to return to the Western Conference Finals. If they get there, it may come at the expense of whatever energy they’ll have in their reserves. I’m not so sure they’ll have any if it reaches that point.

Wolves in 6