Ranking which teams pose the greatest threat to the Cavs: Part one
As the postseason is a few games away let’s rank who could the Cavaliers some trouble.
Barring any unforeseen tumultuous self-combustion, the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be locked into the number one seed. They are in the driver's seat and ready to bestow their dominance over the peons of the league.
This ranking is not who the best teams are in the East, it’s how they would fare against the Cavaliers specifically. Both the entertainment and difficulty scores are based on the analytical mind of yours truly. A database that runs on vibes and what I have seen this season, not only against the Cavaliers, but also in casually watching. Just keep that in mind before you turn into a keyboard warrior.
The “will the wins even feel fun?” Tier
9. Chicago Bulls
Current Seed: 9th (36-42)
Record against the Cavaliers: 0-3
Entertainment Score (out of 10): 2
Difficulty Score (out of 10): 2
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
If the Bulls get through the Play-In, that means they have ridden their second-half surge into the postseason. They had a stretch of winning 9 of 11 games, but have also lost five of six games in March against playoff teams.
The Cavaliers have scored an average of 134 points a game against Chicago in their three matchups. They don’t have the defensive anchors that can really deter the Cavaliers from running the offense they seek. Are Nikola Vucevic and Zach Collins the stalwarts to prevent Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley from getting theirs? Can the Bulls justify leaving Patrick Williams on the floor if the defense ignores him? What if Josh Giddey isn’t knocking down shots? All these questions are more about the Bulls getting their own offense to work before shutting down the Cavaliers.
There really isn’t a blueprint they have shown thus far for upsetting the Cavs. Maybe Coby White, Matas Buzelis, and Josh Giddey get hot? Sure. I don’t truthfully believe they could even steal a game, unless the Cavaliers go an entire game without their shots falling.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Current Seed: 8th (37-41)
Record against the Cavaliers: 2-1
Entertainment Score: 3
Difficulty Score: 4
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
The Cavaliers have lost to the Hawks twice this season already, and both times the formula was the same. The Hawks were hitting their three-point shots and the Cavaliers couldn’t meet them at the three-point line defensively. Atlanta shot 47.6% and 41.2% from beyond the arc in both of their wins.
Now, with the acquisition of De’Andre Hunter at the deadline, the Cavaliers have the man who scored an average of 24.7 points against them between all three contests. Without that firepower, the Hawks will need to generate their points from Trae Young (who will grift his way to 30+ points a game), Caris LeVert, and now rising rookie Zacchaire Risacher.
The Hawks are a one-sided team, it’s essentially offense or bust. Those are the teams that if the Cavaliers sleepwalk through the first few games, can find themselves in trouble early. The Hawks defensively are not anything to fret over, despite having a DPOY candidate in Dyson Daniels. Now, Daniels could make life harder for the guards, however, this isn’t a Cavaliers’ offense of the past. They have many players who can shoulder the workload.
The “The most painful gentleman’s sweep” tier
7. Miami Heat
Current Seed: 10th (36-43)
Record against the Cavaliers: 1-2
Entertainment Score (out of 10): 3
Difficulty Score (out of 10): 4.5
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
For those wondering why the Heat are this high in the ranking despite being the lowest seed currently, look no further than the Heat excel at dragging teams down to their level in the postseason. The Eric Spoelstra factor looms heavy in their “threat-level”.
While I do not think there is a greater than 5% chance this series goes six games, if any team out there would, it’s the Heat. Having won six of their last eight as well, including wins over the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics is something to note. From March 23 to April 1, Miami had the NBA’s fifth-best offense and ranked first in net rating (plus-21.8). That shows a team that is finding its stride at the right time.
Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat are growing into their own, they have the reputation and a talented enough group between Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo to make a series way more challenging than it has to be. It also cannot be understated that Adebayo and rookie Kel’el Ware are one of the more dynamic rebounding pairings in the league. The Heat are 5-2 in games where both players grab 10+ rebounds. That’s a recipe that has plagued the Cavaliers in the past.
The “One Guy who can win a series on his own” Tier
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Current Seed: 5th (44-34)
Record against the Cavaliers: 0-4
Entertainment Score (out of 10): 6
Difficulty Score (out of 10): 7
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably a top-three or four player in the league. When you have a player with the dynamism of Giannis, you are a threat to win any series.
Everyone will point to the skeleton crew that he is working with and you wouldn’t be wrong. Names like Kyle Kuzma, Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr, and Taurean Prince are decent role players at this point in their careers. However, players still getting minutes include Andre Jackson, AJ Green, and Kevin Porter Jr. might be relied on for stretches in the postseason. That isn’t the most ideal rotation.
If Damian Lillard does come back from his vein thrombosis surgery in time, that could greatly improve the Bucks' chances. However, Giannis has scored 31.9 points per game against the Cavaliers since 2022-23. How Giannis performs in this series dictates the level of challenge they can pose to the Cavaliers. Look closely to see how the Cavs go out of their way to get Mobley in front of Giannis for as many possessions as possible.
The Bucks will plan to get Giannis running downhill early and often. The minute that Giannis finds his groove, that Cavaliers defense will collapse to clog the paint. At that point, look to the aforementioned skeleton crew to have to step up and knock down the open looks. If Kuzma, Lopez, Trent Jr., and Prince make their shots, this could be a tough series.
The “This could be tighter than you think” Tier
5. Detroit Pistons
Current Seed: 6th (43-36)
Record against the Cavaliers: 1-3
Entertainment Score (out of 10): 7
Difficulty Score (out of 10): 6.5
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
J.B. Bickerstaff garnered a lot of flak for the Cavaliers' recent postseason exits. Now, he has led another team out of the depths of the NBA basement and into postseason contention. A matchup with the Cavaliers would certainly ignite a fire not only for Bickerstaff but for a Detroit Pistons group that has embodied the attitude of the Bad Boy era.
This team wants to drag you down into the mud and beat the living crap out of you (both in a basketball sense and real life). The Pistons have a two-man wrecking crew on the boards with Jaren Duran and Isaiah Stewart. The amount of wildcards the Pistons have is a daunting task ahead. The aforementioned Stewart, along with Ron Holland, are two guys that live to antagonize their matchup and look to scrap at the drop of a hat.
Now for the basketball analysis, Cade Cunningham is the conductor of the Pistons' offense. Bickerstaff has found a similar formula to the Cavaliers' 2021-22 season. Cunningham, in the Darius Garland role, is the straw that stirs the drink and carries the bulk of the offensive responsibility.
Cunningham will look to get the defense to throw two his way and spray the ball out to Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway. They have a lot of capable scoring options that can fluctuate on a night-to-night basis. With Tobias Harris and Dennis Schroder, they can find different players to turn to when Cade finds himself doubled.
How the Cavaliers respond to Cunningham will dictate this series. They have the bodies capable of slowing him down. Expect Hunter and Isaac Okoro to see a lot of run with him in front of them. If the initial layer of defense is not breaking as Bickerstaff and the Pistons hope, the game of adjustments will test Cunningham and Bickerstaff.
4. Orlando Magic
Current Seed: 7th (38-40)
Record against the Cavaliers: 1-2
Entertainment Score (out of 10): 5
Difficulty Score (out of 10): 8
How they can beat the Cavaliers:
The Orlando Magic felt like they’ve plateaued vibes since their first-round matchup against the Cavaliers last postseason. While the Cavaliers have evolved immensely conceptually and in terms of talent, the Magic have faltered.
The Magic almost win every game despite their offense. The offense they run is pretty barebones and vanilla to put it nicely. With the injuries they have suffered, they really have no real lead guard. They constantly are searching for a dynamic big and have been battered for the better part of the season. So, how can they beat the Cavaliers?
The Magic recently defeated the Cavaliers 108-103 back in mid-March and laid down a solid blueprint for a round one matchup. The Magic made up all offensive shortcomings with a suffocating defense. They were able to play physical on the guards and force sloppy turnovers. The guards are always going to be the Cavaliers' liability as they are undersized.
The physicality component is something that the Cavaliers haven’t really proved that they can overcome on a consistent basis. The Magic also have in the back of their mind that they almost made the second round last season and get a chance to right that wrong. The Magic are fully capable of making Cleveland’s “reward” of playing the eight seed a slog. Do not be surprised if, similar to March 16, the Cavaliers are dragged to the Magic’s playstyle.
Part two of this series will be posted later this week. Let me know down below where you agree/disagree with these rankings. (Braces for impact).