Can the Colts solve their Anthony Richardson problem?

It’s a true make-or-break season for Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis.

Things have been rather… interesting for the Indianapolis Colts at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement on Aug. 24, 2019 at age 29. Since then, they’ve cycled through Brian Hoyer, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Jacob Eason, Sam Ehlinger, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew II, and Joe Flacco.

Anthony Richardson, selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Florida, was supposed to stop the maddening churn of mediocrity. The Colts were betting on Richardson’s potential, because he was the starter for just one season (2022) with the Gators, and overall in three collegiate seasons, he completed 213 of 395 passes (53.9%) for 3,107 yards (7.9 yards per attempt), 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a passer rating of 84.2. Richardson also ran 154 times for 1,189 yards (7.7 yards per carry), and 12 touchdowns. Based on that, and based on the fact that he did show improvement as a pure passer over that one starting season, the Colts took the leap of faith that Richardson could and would become a plus NFL quarterback over time. Because you don’t take a guy that high unless you truly believe that he can tilt the field.

The Colts also ostensibly paired Richardson with the perfect head coach and offensive shot-caller in Shane Steichen, the former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator hired after he turned Jalen Hurts into the perfect bridge between Philly’s passing and running games.

It’s not been entirely Richardson’s fault, but so far, the results have not been what anybody hoped. In two NFL seasons, Richardson has completed 176 of 348 passes (50.6%) for 2,391 yards (6.9 yards per attempt), 11 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a passer rating of 67.8. He’s also run the ball 111 times for 635 yards (5.7 yards per carry), 10 touchdowns… and 12 fumbles.

It’s never good when your efficiency metrics plummet in the transition from the NCAA to the NFL; it could also be said that injuries have severely affected Richardson’s transition. He missed all but four games in his rookie campaign due to concussion issues and a Grade 3 AC joint (shoulder) sprain he suffered in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans.

In 2024, Richardson managed 11 games and 11 starts, but things weren’t really rosy out there. He suffered an oblique injury that caused him to miss Weeks 5 and 6, he was benched in favor of Joe Flacco in mid-season, he famously took himself out for a play against the Houston Texans in Week 8 with the explanation that he “needed a breather,” and overall, Season 2 of the Richardson experiment concluded with the Colts convinced that Richardson would need competition for the starting job.

The rubber is about to meet the road.

Steichen said at his end-of-season presser on Jan. 6 that the idea of Richardson needing competition was a conversation that he and general manager Chris Ballard would be having. By the time the scouting combine rolled around, the decision had been made.

“I think it’s good,” Steichen said on February 25 about an open quarterback draw. “I think competition is great for everybody. Any time you have competition at any position, whether it’s the quarterback position or wherever it may be, I think it makes everyone better.”

And what did Steichen want to see from Richardson in the future?

“Consistency is the biggest thing. We’ve had those conversations... myself and him. Just being consistent. Obviously, he’s been on the field in 15 games in the last two years. He played 11 last year and did some really good things but just looking for consistency. Building on the fundamentals and obviously just continue to work on his passing. Getting the completion percentage up will be big going forward for him.”

The Colts signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract with $13.15 million fully guaranteed and a boatload of potential incentives on March 13, so now they’re rolling with two former high first-round picks who have never really lived up to their draft stock.

“I’m a natural competitor,” Richardson said in January of the quarterback books opening to just about anybody. “I’ve been competing all my life. I love competing. So, if the team feels like that’s the right direction we want to go in, I’m all for it. I’m competing. If not, I’m still here competing, working. Working my tail off to be the best version I can for this team. So I can’t really control everything that comes with the NFL, but I know I can control what I can and I’m going to do my part to be the best version of myself for this organization.”

So, if Steichen and his staff are to maximize Richardson’s attributes and cut down on the liabilities, how exactly do they do that… or is the Anthony Richardson decision just going to be one of those mistakes that every team makes from time to time?

The answer isn’t schematically simple.

Unlike a lot of developmental quarterbacks, Richardson doesn’t have the One Magical Thing that can be unlocked with the cunning and increased use of play-action, pre-snap motion, condensed formations, or one certain route concept. Richardson struggled more than he should have with those quarterback helpers last season, so we’re really talking about a fundamental improvement that begins with Richardson.

Play-action does help Richardson in the abstract because defenses have to be aware of him as a runner, so play-fakes will suck linebackers in and give Richardson the easy reads he needs at this point in his career. But even when he had the benefit of run/pass option, Richardson completed just nine of 16 passes for 68 yards, 5 air yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 47.9. Steichen is a master at designing the second- and third-level RPO in which receivers are open downfield, and Richardson was pretty spotty on some really simple stuff.

Steichen also gave Richardson quick, easy first reads with pre-snap motion that changed the defense’s passing strength, with mixed results. With plays like this, you understand the frustration.

So, it’s also not as simple as “Hey, just give Richardson the first read open” – the thing that Sean McVay used to save Jared Goff’s career back in the day. Steichen and his people have already done that. Richardson’s average time to throw of 2.76 seconds tied him with (you’ll pardon the expression) Deshaun Watson for the NFL’s sixth-highest among quarterbacks who took at least 20% of their teams’ snaps in 2024, but even on quick stuff like easy screens, it was hit-and-miss at best, as we’ve already seen.

Plus, if you reduce Anthony Richardson to a chuck-and-duck quarterback, you take away the one force-multiplier factor that does show up on tape. There are times when Richardson can make truly transcendent deep throws, and deep throws take time.

The Colts may be greasing the skids for the inevitable exit.

Highlight throws only hold one’s interest for so long, and the timeline becomes seriously compressed when a quarterback struggles with the basics. The Durham Bulls had one job: To turn Ebby Calvin ‘Nuke’ LaLoosh’s demon arm into something that was Major League-ready. That LaLoosh struck out 18 batters (a new league record) didn’t matter as much as the 18 batters he walked (another new league record!) in his first game.

So far, Anthony Richardson has not found his Crash Davis – the wizard mentor who could unlock his rare potential. And given how the Colts have opened the door to any competition, it would appear that Steichen and Ballard are preparing for the possibility that their movie has a more unpleasant ending.

That makes 2025 a true make-or-break season for Richardson. His team has done everything possible to lay the groundwork for his NFL success. But at some point, the player must meet the challenge. If that doesn’t happen in the upcoming season, and Daniel Jones is throwing ducks by Week 8, it’s hard to blame the Colts for blowing the whole thing up and starting from scratch if that’s what they do..

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).