It’s Thursday - Let The Games Begin!

Hooooooooooops!!!!!

We now know who Duke will face on Friday in the NCAA Tournament: it’ll be Mount St. Mary’s, with those light blue uniforms. They might be like waving red in front of a bull or, in this case maybe, Bull Durham.

We were kind of pulling for former Maryland guard Duane Simpkins and in the interviews we saw, he seemed very much like a coach anyone would respect. Unfortunately, American lost their best player Matt Rogers to a knee injury and after he went out for the second time, Mt. St. Mary’s pulled out in front.

As we’ve said several times, you can’t plan for luck.

In the nightcap, Xavier was not playing well in the first half but came back to claim the win, 86-80.

Afterwards, Xavier coach Sean Miller called it “one of the greatest games I’ve ever been a part of.”

Xavier now moves on to play #6 Illinois in the Midwest.

Now that the First Four is out of the way, we can get on with the big show and our absolutely final picks - unless we change our minds for Friday.

Kidding! Probably, anyway.

On Thursday, we’ll take #8 Louisville over #9 Creighton in the first game and #13 High Point over #4 Purdue.

We like #3 Wisconsin over #14 Montana and then #1 Houston over #16 Brian Barone’s SIUE Cougars. As mentioned previously, Barone’s dad, Tony, played for Vic Bubas at Duke. Go Cougars!

We don't think #16 Alabama State has a chance against #1 Auburn. The game between #12 McNeese State and #5 Clemson looks like Clemson to us but a late wildcard: the Cowboys know their next loss is Will Wade’s last game as he has agreed to take the NC State job. Who knows how they’ll respond to that?

We’d like to take #11 VCU over #6 BYU but the elevation in Denver clearly favors BYU and will likely affect VCU’s defensive intensity.

In the 4:35 game, we’ll stick with #8 Gonzaga over #9 Georgia.

Can’t see an argument for #15 Wofford to take down #1 Tennessee except that his teams tend to get upset in the tournament. Not enough to bet on the Terriers.

The Arkansas-Kansas game has echoes of Bill Self’s first championship over Calipari’s Memphis in 2008. We’ll take the #7 Jayhawks over the #10 Razorbacks.

#13 Yale is a trendy upset pick over #4 Texas A&M but the logic is reasonable: the Aggies can’t shoot and Yale is a physical team. They’ll need to rebound to beat former Blue Devil Henry Coleman and his A&M buddies, but we think it’s doable.

#10 Utah State and #7 UCLA...this one got interesting because with Darian DeVries moving to Indiana, the West Virginia job is open and USU coach Jerrod Calhoun is rumored as a likely replacement. How will that affect his team? Hard to say.

In the tournament though, play gets conservative. Utah State is going to try to run UCLA back to Westwood and that won’t be easy. We’ll take the Bruins and expect them to control tempo. If it’s a fast game, the Bruins will be ruined.

As noted previously, #12 UC San Diego provides great ball pressure and turns people over a lot. Michigan’s point guard play is suspect and if you can get the two big guys gassed, the Wolverines will be in trouble. And this is in Denver, so we’ll go all in on the Tridents here.

Finally in the nightcap, #3 Texas Tech faces off with #14 UNC-W. Can’t see it, Seahawks.

Okay, now for Friday.

Jeremy Roach and #9 Baylor and #8 Mississippi State open things up at 12:15. In games like this we tend to bet on the coaches, so Scott Drew’s Bears.

While we’d love to see #2 ‘Bama lose to #15 Robert Morris, just can’t see it.

#3 Iowa State has serious injury concerns with Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert both suffering groin injuries. Gilbert has been ruled out for the tourney while Lipsey is at best questionable. It shouldn’t be a problem with Lipscomb but it probably will be later.

We like #12 Colorado State to upset erratic #5 Memphis. partly because Tyrese Hunter and Virginia transfer Dante Harris are questionable.

#1 Duke takes on #16 Mount St. Mary’s at 2:50 and while this would be a long shot under any circumstances, experience tells us not to bet against Duke. Incidentally, basketball lifer Jeff Goodman reports on his podcast that he’s heard Cooper Flagg is at or near to 100 percent. We wouldn’t take it to the bank just yet, but that’s encouraging.

#10 Vandy gets #7 Saint Mary’s and that one is interesting too. Normally we’d take the power conference team but we’re not sold on the Commodores and Randy Bennett is a heck of a coach, so we’ll take the Gaels here.

#11 UNC gets #6 Ole Miss and after the monster game UNC had, does anyone want to bet against them?

Well, you might because of a two-part DBR Basic Principle: 1) you’re not going to get two game like that in a row because it’s way above your norm, and 2) you definitely don't want to have that game as your first game.

Doesn’t mean that UNC can’t win, but it’ll be much more of a grinder. Bonus: point guard Sean Pedulla has a lot of experience playing UNC from his Virginia Tech days. Tough call: on the one hand, an ACC win over an SEC team would be pretty cool right now but it’s still UNC.

Emotions aside, we don't think UNC can play like they did on Tuesday and Chris Beard is a superb basketball coach. He’ll find the right thing to take away.

#4 Maryland is a tough team and it’s hard to make a case for #13 Grand Canyon other than Maryland’s traditional March fade. We’ll say the Terps here, more on intuition than reason.

Not a chance that #16 Norfolk State takes out #1 Florida. Just can’t see it.

But could #14 Troy take out #3 Kentucky? Yes. Yes they could. And we think they will. Mark Pope has had a brilliant first year but his team has some weaknesses and doesn't always defend well.

#10 New Mexico and #7 Marquette. Still a tough call. We’ll take the Lobos. This is not a vintage Shaka Smart team and even good Shaka Smart teams tend to exit early.

#13 Akron is well-coached and #4 Arizona has Caleb Love and Caleb Love still runs hot and cold. Don’t see an upset here though.

#9 Oklahoma vs. #8 UConn. Hurley’s pissed and he’s been under the hood back in Storrs. If UConn doesn’t play at a very high level we’ll be surprised. By the way there are rumors that Jay Wright likes OU’s Porter Moser as Villanova’s next coach so these guys may play on the regular soon.

After seeing how #11 Xavier played against Texas, and given #6 Illinois’ erratic season, we like the Musketeers. Note: this is not in conflict with our take on UNC because UNC’s game was so freakishly above their norm. Xavier played very well in the second half, but it wasn’t like they were out of their minds. They could possibly play better on Friday.

#15 Bryant over #2 Michigan State? Not happening.

Finally, we weren’t big on #12 Liberty over #5 Oregon, but the Flames look like a fun team. Working against them: the game is in Seattle. However, we think this is an excellent upset candidate.