The Case For Duke As The Overall No. 1 Seed In the NCAA Tournament

The Selection Committee established a precedent in 2022 that could come into play

In a chaotic year in college basketball that has seen the consensus preseason No. 1 team (Kansas) drop out of the AP Top 25 and another preseason Top 10 team (North Carolina) relegated to the bubble, Duke and Auburn have been amongst the few teams providing some stability. It’s no surprise, then, that the Blue Devils and Tigers have clearly distanced themselves from the rest of the pack as it pertains to NCAA Tournament seeding.

Up until last night, Auburn was the consensus pick to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament based on their superior record playing in a superior conference. But a subpar performance in a loss against a good, but not great, Texas A&M squad Tuesday night is likely to reopen the debate of which of these two dominant squads sits in the pole position with a week and a half left before Selection Sunday.

Despite their loss, the Tigers still have the easier argument to make. They have lapped the field in a historically good (according to the metrics) SEC, and their 15 Quad 1 wins is 5 more than the second best team (Michigan State) this season. Auburn is tied for the fewest losses in the country with Duke, but has done so against much stronger competition.

But you don’t have to look too far back in time to find a similar situation in which the selection committee chose the team with a more Duke-like resume as No. 1 overall. In 2022, both Gonzaga and Arizona entered the tournament with just three losses, although the Bulldogs played in the mid-major West Coast Conference while the Wildcats played in the (now nearly defunct) PAC-12. Gonzaga had more Q1 wins driven by a relatively strong year in the WCC, but the weakness of their league could be seen in the mere 3 games in Quads 2 and 3 the Bulldogs played in the regular season. Arizona, in contrast, went 9-0 against Quad 2 opponents and 9-0 against Quad 3 opponents. The Wildcats were also tested more on the road, compiling a 9-3 record in true road contests, whereas Gonzaga played just 6 such games all season, including one loss.

The analytics, though, tilted heavily in the Bulldogs’ favor. Gonzaga was the No. 1 team in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings by a full 3 points, 5 points ahead of Arizona. Unsurprisingly given their influence on the NCAA’s own NET rankings system, Gonzaga ended the season No. 1 in the NET while Arizona was No. 2.

Today, Duke sits at No. 1 in the NET rankings over No. 2 Auburn. Duke is also No. 1 in the KenPom rankings, nearly 3 full points above Auburn. The weak ACC may not have presented Duke as many Q1 opportunities as the WCC presented the 2022 Gonzaga squad, but the Blue Devils have won their 6 Q2 games by an average of 24 points.

Oh, and Duke beat Auburn back in early December in Cameron.

The Blue Devils likely have no room for error to claim the top overall seed, and might still need another loss from Auburn to convince those enamored with the SEC this season. Still, there’s clear precedent for the selection committee choosing the analytical favorite from an inferior conference over the best team from the better conferences. If Duke takes care of business in Chapel Hill on Saturday, the debate will only get more heated throughout the conference tournaments next week.