Seeding the area's Class 4A high school basketball sectionals

This high school basketball steamroller of a season has very few limits.

The anything-can-happen mantra of this season continued last week in the city playoffs, where Curie took down Simeon after previously losing to them twice, Lincoln Park was stunned by Hyde Park and Lane nearly upset No. 1 Kenwood.

What will the state tournament bring us later this month and into the first two weeks of March?

The “expected” picture will come into focus later this week when sectional seeds and matchups are released. But we must first find a way to get there. With that comes the annual projected seeds.

The following is based on a whole bunch of different criteria, some that I think coaches definitely take into account (win totals and head-to-head results) and some that should be looked at more closely (schedule strength, including quality wins, and how a team is currently playing).

Here is how the City/Suburban Hoops Report sees each sectional’s top eight seeds and an overview of how we got there.

Benet Sectional

1. Bolingbrook (25-4)
2. Waubonsie Valley (25-1)
3. Benet (22-5)
4. Downers Grove North (20-7)
5. West Aurora (18-8)
6. Oswego East (18-9)
7. Neuqua Valley (16-11)
8. Metea Valley (16-10)

Overview: This is a sectional that’s been deep and loaded for a few years. That’s not the case this season, although it’s certainly stacked at the top.

The top four teams are the same as a year ago — just in a different order. But those top three teams are legit and have been ranked all season long. Those top three also fall into line pretty easily.

Bolingbrook is without question the top seed with the schedule it has played and the results.

There is a significant difference between Waubonsie Valley’s schedule and Benet’s schedule, but the fact of the matter is Waubonsie Valley is very good and has lost just once — to a top 10 team in Marist.

Downers Grove North and West Aurora are locked in at No. 4 and No. 5.

DGN started the year 12-1 and are 8-6 since. West Aurora began the year 5-8 but hasn’t lost since Terrence Smith returned in early January. West Aurora’s winning streak has reached 13 games and includes wins over 20-win teams Geneva and Brother Rice.

You can flip a coin between DGN and West Aurora. Let them play it out in a regional final.

Oswego East took a punch to the gut with the recent injury to star Mason Lockett. It’s never easy to gauge where to seed a team that deserves a certain seed but will likely be without its best player. Without Lockett, the Wolves have lost their last two, including one to Plainfield North, but has beaten Neuqua Valley, Metea Valley and Plainfield South.

Metea and Neuqua have split. Metea beat Naperville North twice. Naperville North beat Neuqua Valley and recently knocked off Plainfield North.

There really are a whole bunch of teams who could lay claim to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, including Neuqua Valley, Metea Valley, Naperville North and Plainfield North. All four have taken turns knocking each other off.

St. Charles East Sectional

1. Glenbard West (20-5)
2. Geneva (22-4)
3. Wheaton-Warrenville South (20-7)
4. Glenbard East (20-8)
5. Proviso East (17-8)
6. York (13-14)
7. Glenbard North (12-13)
8. St. Charles East (14-12)

Overview: The top seed is an easy one. Glenbard West has knocked off DeKalb, Hinsdale Central, Stevenson and Joliet West.

Geneva has beaten Wheaton South twice this season and secures the second spot.

Both Glenbard East and Proviso East have really turned their seasons around. Proviso East looked as if it was ready to lock up the No. 4 seed until being upset by sectional foe Addison Trail last week. Glenbard East has won nine straight, including nice wins over Riverside-Brookfield and Wheaton Academy, likely a pair of conference champs.

After those top five seeds? It’s a long list of mediocrity with a whole bunch of .500-type teams, including Addison Trail, York, St. Charles East, Wheaton North and Glenbard North.

What it came down to for the six, seven and eight seeds was a trio of teams — York, Glenbard North and St. Charles East — that have beaten each other.

York, however, has played the toughest schedule of the bunch and handed Glenbard North a defeat.

And no, close doesn’t count. But Glenbard North recently played two higher-seeded teams in this sectional very tough, losing to Wheaton South 47-46 and to Geneva last week in overtime. Plus, the Panthers have beaten St. Charles East and Wheaton North.

New Trier Sectional

1. Evanston (23-4)
2. Loyola (20-8)
3. Niles North (23-6)
4. Lane (17-11)
5. New Trier (19-9)
6. Glenbrook South (15-12)
7. Glenbrook North (14-11)
8. Maine South (11-15)

Overview: This is always a quagmire at the top with so many mutual opponents and head-to-head results to examine.

Although Evanston and New Trier square off Tuesday night, it shouldn’t matter. Evanston beat its rival just two weeks ago and is playing the best basketball of any team in the sectional. The Wildkits also own wins over Loyola and Niles North.

It’s not even debatable. Evanston deserves the top seed.

Loyola just suffered its worst week of the season at the wrong time with two bad losses. And New Trier beat Loyola, but it was way back in November when the Ramblers were without their football players.

But Loyola has beaten St. Patrick, a signature win over Mount Carmel and beat Niles North all in the last three weeks. The Ramblers have also beaten St. Ignatius, Fenwick and two Florida teams with a combined 39 wins on the year. They hold on to No. 2.

With the solid schedule it has played, the 22 wins and a December victory over Lane, Niles North is clearly the third seed.

Lane has played a very strong schedule with a dozen games against teams that have been ranked this season. But what gets Lane the No. 4 seed is its January win over New Trier.

Glenbrook South and Glenbrook North have similar records but GBS owns the season sweep.

Highland Park has put together a very nice season and win total. But it hasn’t had the résumé-building type wins to earn anything higher than a No. 9 seed. As a result, Maine South, a team without the win total but a challenging schedule with nine teams that have been ranked, nudged itself up to eight seed.

Hinsdale Central Sectional

1. Kenwood (25-1)
2. Hinsdale Central (24-2)
3. Lincoln Park (22-5)
4. Simeon (19-7)
5. St. Ignatius (22-5)
6. Young (16-12)
7. Curie (20-8)
8. Riverside-Brookfield (17-9)

Overview: The best sectional in the state. All of the Public League stalwarts, including Kenwood, the top-ranked team and top seed, will be trying to keep the host and other city rivals at bay.

After easily putting Kenwood and Hinsdale Central at No. 1 and No. 2 it becomes a whole lot more difficult to seed. In fact, seeding this sectional is without a doubt the most challenging of any sectional.

What to do with three through seven? It’s honestly a mess and will be interesting to see how it goes because it could go a number of different ways.

Simeon has beaten Lincoln Park. Simeon has gone 2-1 against Curie. Young has beaten Simeon but has lost to Curie and Lincoln Park. And Lincoln Park beat Curie.

Following all that?

Then there is the outlier, St. Ignatius, which hasn’t played any of the top teams in the sectional but has résumé-building type wins over Benet and Brother Rice among its 22 wins. That keeps the Wolfpack in the mix.

This comes down to looking at overall record, strength of schedule and signature wins. But not many of these teams separate themselves with this criteria.

We start at the bottom and work our way up.

Why is Curie No. 7? The Condors have lost to Kenwood, Simeon, Young and Lincoln Park. The lone, big opposing sectional win did come last week over Simeon, but Curie is still only 1-2 against the Wolverines. It’s hard to get out of the seventh seed when dissecting the Condors head-to-head results in this sectional.

Young’s schedule is always daunting. But it lands at No. 6 due mostly to its 3-6 record against Illinois ranked teams, including a loss to Lincoln Park.

That leaves us with Simeon, St. Ignatius and Lincoln Park. These are the three you could easily put in any order when it comes to the three through five seeds. Against ranked teams they are the following: Lincoln Park (3-4); Simeon (4-5); St. Ignatius (3-5).

That didn’t help.

So we go Simeon at No. 3 over Lincoln Park, due mostly to its win over the Lions and the fact the Wolverines have played a slightly stronger schedule.

As part of its five losses on the season, Lincoln Park has lost to both Warren and Simeon by a single point. As part of its five losses, St. Ignatius lost to Mount Carmel by 31 points, Morton by 18 points and fell to Lake Zurich. Lincoln Park secures the No. 5.

Riverside-Brookfield beat Oak Lawn this past weekend to grab the No. 8 seed.

Rich Sectional

1. Homewood-Flossmoor (24-2)
2. Marist (26-2)
3. Rich (19-7)
4. Joliet West (18-9)
5. Bloom (17-8)
6. Lincoln-Way East (16-10)
7. Lockport (18-9)
8. Lincoln-Way Central (20-9)

Overview: This is a very strong sectional but one that is pretty simple to seed when you examine it.

Homewood-Flossmoor has earned the top seed. Yes, the Vikings did lose to Rich back in December. But the full body of work, which includes a January win over DePaul Prep and a current 11-game winning streak, puts H-F on the top line.

Marist has a glitzy record and impressive wins over highly-ranked Brother Rice and Waubonsie Valley. They lost to Benet in overtime, a team Rich was dismantled by a few weeks ago.

Even with playing what is the best schedule in the sectional, Rich has just been too wildly inconsistent. The lopsided loss to Benet and two recent defeats to Fenwick and Bloom leaves the Raptors out of the mix for the top two spots.

Both Bloom and Joliet West have played very strong schedules — much stronger than both the Lincoln-Ways and Lockport — and have similar records. But Joliet West gets the nod as it has lost to Bolingbrook and H-F by a combined five points and has beaten Warren.

Tough call between the trio of Lockport, Lincoln-Way Central and Lincoln-Way East. All three split with each other this season.

Lincoln-Way East has fewer wins than the other two, which means coaches will likely drop them, but they’ve played the better schedule and have won seven of its last nine. Lockport won the most recent matchup with Lincoln-Way Central.

Schaumburg Sectional

1. Rolling Meadows (22-4)
2. Fremd (23-2)
3. Stevenson (18-8)
4. Hersey (19-5)
5. Barrington (16-7)
6. Lake Zurich (13-14)
7. Schaumburg (19-9)
8. Hoffman Estates (19-9)

Overview: The records of Rolling Meadows and Fremd stand out. But there is no comparison when stacking up their two schedules. Rolling Meadows gets the edge as it has split with ranked Evanston and lost to highly-regarded Metamora and Mount Carmel.

Fremd’s biggest win of the season was a December victory over Stevenson, one of the hottest teams in the sectional.

Yes, Hersey did beat Stevenson — way back in November. But there is no denying Stevenson has elevated itself to another level with its recent play. Stevenson has won nine of 10 (only loss to Waubonsie Valley) and has beaten Waukegan, Warren and Lake Forest in the last two weeks.

Barrington has won seven of its last eight with wins over both Schaumburg and Hoffman Estates. The Broncos slide easily in at No. 5.

Lake Zurich doesn’t have the record but has beaten Warren, St. Ignatius, Lemont and New Trier to show its upside and warrant being in the conversation at No. 6.

Schaumburg and Hoffman Estates are No. 7 and No. 8. While Schaumburg is 11-2 in its last 13 games, Hoffman Estates is 6-6 in its last 12. The two split during the regular season but the Saxons won the most recent matchup.

Waukegan Sectional

Sub-Sectional A

1. Warren (18-9)
2. Waukegan (18-7)
3. McHenry (22-4)
4. Libertyville (14-11)

Overview: Despite the record, no one can put McHenry ahead of the two North Suburban Conference teams. The schedule strength between McHenry and both Waukegan and Warren is too glaring.

Deciding between Warren and Waukegan is tough. They both have 18 wins and both have had their ups and downs over the past three weeks.

Waukegan beat Warren in early December but Warren was shorthanded. Plus, Warren’s schedule has been very tough and there are some marquee non-conference wins over Bolingbrook, Whitney Young and Lincoln Park.

Sub-Sectional B

1. Rockford Guilford (22-4)
2. DeKalb (20-6)
3. Rockford Auburn (16-11)
4. Rockford East (17-11)

Overview: Guilford is the clear No. 1, losing just once since December (to Curie) and having beaten Auburn twice, Hononegah and Rockford East. The Vikings also have a win over Hinsdale Central to their line of credit.

DeKalb has played well, going 16-2 since mid-December with a win over Rockford Auburn.

Rockford Auburn has beaten Hononegah and split with Rockford East. But the Knights have played the tougher schedule of the three contenders for the No. 3 seed.

Rockford East has split with Hononegah but won by 15 points two weeks ago in the most recent meeting.