My prediction: the number of sports fans will decline.
- Once upon a time, watching the hometown sports team was free. Just turn on the TV, and there it was. Now, one has to pay for the privilege. Fans will pay; potential fans won’t. The old ABA died for lack of a television contract, not just for sorely needed immediate funding, but also because it inhibited their ability to show their product. I was fortunate enough to live in the NYC metropolitan area where the ABA’s New York Nets games were shown on a local TV station, and I am convinced that if more people were able to see Julius Erving with a team built around his skill set, the ABA would have flourished.
- These days, though, with Prime, Netflix, and other choices, people don’t have to shell out $150+ for cable or $85+ for streaming, to have a lot to watch. $30-40 a month does the trick. When games are less available, the audience will be limited to the teams’ existing fan base, which will shrink when the local team does not meet the fans’ expectations.
- This is why the NBA’s fan base is shrinking and will continue to shrink.