The Vikings have a massive Sam Darnold problem

Minnesota has a tough decision to make with it comes to their star quarterback.

Sam Darnold was a problem for the Falcons on Sunday. In total command of Kevin O’Connell’s offense, he turned a middling Atlanta secondary into his own personal playground, throwing for 347 yards and 5 touchdowns on an afternoon where there was simply no stopping him.

Sam Darnold has been a problem for the entire NFL this season. Boasting a 108.1 passer rating this season, only Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff have higher efficiency ratings. There have only been two games this season in which Darnold has finished with a rating worse than 100.

Sam Darnold is a problem for the Minnesota Vikings. The future decision they never expected they’d need to make — one destined to be a franchise-altering choice, regardless of which side they land on. Truth be told, there’s no good answer for what Minnesota should do with Darnold, and herein lies the conundrum.

On Sunday morning ESPN’s Adam Schefter appeared on NFL Sunday Countdown and offered insight into the decision making behind the scenes, indicating that it appeared the Vikings were on a course to part ways with Darnold.

“Sam Darnold and the Vikings have had no contract talks whatsoever. So Sam Darnold right now is tracking to become a free agent, and the only quarterback under contract in Minnesota for 2025 is JJ McCarthy, who is coming off a torn ACL.”

Schefter would go on to say that this was a primary driving force behind the Vikings deciding to sign Daniel Jones, in the hopes they could convince another veteran reclamation project that Minnesota was the right landing spot, granting them some insurance when it comes to the debut of J.J. McCarthy. While this might seem great in theory, it assumes that O’Connell’s offense is so plug-and-play that any quarterback can thrive in it — but that’s a big assumption.

Keep in mind this was the same organization hoping to bring back Kirk Cousins for at least one more season while they prepped to start McCarthy at quarterback, only to see Cousins leave for Atlanta. Where this gets interesting is that Sam Darnold is playing at a higher level that Cousins ever did for Minnesota. Cousins’ best statistical full season came in 2020, and here’s how that stacks up vs. what Sam Darnold has done this year.

Kirk Cousins (2020): 349-for-516 (67.6%), 4,265 yds (8.3 ypa), 35 TD, 13 INT — 107.4 rating
Sam Darnold (2024 — projected): 345-for-505 (68.4%), 4,314 yds (8.5 YPA), 37 TD, 13 INT — 108.1 rating

Essentially what we’re seeing is Darnold beating Cousins’ best season in Minnesota, and doing so fairly easily. This is an organization that has captured lightning in a bottle, and if they decide to let that go into the ether, they better be damn sure McCarthy can be every bit as productive out of the gate, or it will go down as one of the worst quarterback decisions in recent memory.

So much about quarterback success is fit, and Darnold has found his with the Vikings. Sure, on some level you can be flip about it and say that having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson makes life easy (and it does), but that would also completely discount Darnold’s fundamental understanding of what it takes to be a Kevin O’Connell quarterback, how to run that system pre-snap, and the decisiveness needed to flourish inside of it.

Darnold’s brilliance has really put the Vikings in a bind. It would have been so much easier if he came out with middling play on Sunday, or got upstaged by Cousins. That would have allowed the landing to be so much softer if, and when Minnesota moved on. That didn’t happen, however. Instead Darnold torched the Falcons, made fans completely forget about their former QB, and even thankful he didn’t decide to return. While Cousins was out there tossing two sad interceptions, Darnold was giving fans a quarterback game the likes of which they haven’t seen since 2004 when Duante Culpepper threw for five TDs.

This is to speak about all the upside and none of the risk, and make no mistake there is tremendous risk here too. We’re about to hit a bad draft class when it comes to quarterbacks, and Darnold is only 27-years-old. There is a very real chance a potential contract could be upwards of the 3-year, $100M deal that Baker Mayfield signed to stay with the Buccaneers — and the Vikings will be in a bidding war if they decide to try and retain Darnold.

If you’re entering nine-figure territory, you better be damn sure your quarterback truly is “the guy.” This is especially so when you just gave up future draft capital in 2024 to move up and select a QB you thought was going to be the future of your franchise. If Darnold is re-signed, and McCarthy either runs out his rookie contract or demands a trade — it’s bad. If Darnold turns out not to be the franchise QB he was in year one, it’s bad. If there’s forever questions that keeping him was the wrong move — it’s bad.

It’s for all these reasons that Sam Darnold is a legitimate problem for the Minnesota Vikings. Right now it’s a good problem to have, surging ahead with a quarterback out of nowhere. If they go further though, if they push deeper into the playoffs (or God forbid the Superbowl), then there’s no way the front office can gleefully push forward without Darnold as their quarterback of the future.

This organization is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and there’s no good answer.

Winner: The Rams’ playoff chances

Nobody is really talking about it, but Los Angeles could be the danger team if they find a way into the NFC Playoffs. As it stands they’re on the outside looking in, but winning games like they did on Sunday against the Bills are the kind of victories they need in order to find a way in.

With both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy the pass offense is as good as its ever been, and this year the Rams are well-rounded with Kyren Williams adding a solid wrinkle to balance things out.

Los Angeles have the ability to take most teams in the NFL in a shootout, and that could lead to some surprising results come January. Now they just need to win vs. the 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks — all of which are very winnable games.

Loser: The Jaguars AND Titans

The Titans are losers because they lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL, and Will Levis was a total mess. The Jaguars are losers because they might have played themselves out of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft without anything to really show for it.

This is one of those games that might make fans feels good for a week, but fast-forward six months and it’ll be circled as one of the biggest errors on the Jaguars’ schedule.

Winner: Saquon Barkley’s chase for history

We are drawing ever closer to Barkley breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards in 16 games. As it stands Barkley is now on pace for 2,122 yards — and in terms of history, he’s set to eclipse the mark in 346 carries, when it took Dickerson 379 to hit the mark.

We’ve already discussed why despite breaking history it’s going to be Josh Allen’s MVP award to lose, but Saquon is going to keep making history this season. He’s the single biggest difference maker on offense from a non quarterback position, and that’s exactly what he did on Sunday against a Carolina Panthers team which has become a stunningly difficult out for opposing teams.