MLB Playoffs: American League Preview
Even in a relative down season, the Astros might very well extend their ALCS streak. Will any American League team make like the Rangers and topple them?
During the decade-plus of MLB play from 2005-16, only two American League teams won at least 100 games. Outside of the 2008 Angels and 2009 Yankees, it was always a scramble of several good teams, but no true slam-dunk standouts (and even the ‘08 Angels were quickly toppled in the Division Series).
That’s just the way it was, and we got to see some true stunners make the Fall Classic in that timespan. The 2006 Tigers went from losing the AL Central on the season’s last day to reaching their first World Series in over two decades as a Wild Card. They made it again six years later with a team that only won 88 games in the regular season. The Royals made the playoffs in 2014 for the first time since 1985 and promptly rode one of the best games in MLB history from the Wild Card round all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. That’s just a sample of the past surprises.
In the most recent six full seasons of play, however, the heavyweights have reemerged with at least one 100-win team annually in the Junior Circuit (often two). The Astros won 101 and 106 in their championship campaigns of 2017 and 2022, plus 107 in the pennant-winning 2019. The Red Sox had arguably their best season in franchise history in 2018, a 108-win juggernaut that steamrolled three other 100-win clubs in the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. Even in the COVID-shortened 2020, the AL’s representative in the World Series was the team with the best record: the Rays.
Perhaps Texas upsetting Houston in the 2023 ALCS was the canary in the coal mine for the juggernauts. No, the Astros were not as overwhelming as they had been in recent years, but the incumbents were the favorites. Although the Rangers would disappoint in 2024, the Astros’ cross-state rivals turned out to be the underdog champions of an all-Wild Card World Series last year.
Now, the 2024 MLB postseason is upon us. Not a single 100-win team exists among the entire playoff field. The top seeds have serious flaws that could be exposed, and one Wild Card club in particular is the hottest team in baseball. Chaos will reign; in the meantime, here are the six teams duking it out in the Junior Circuit, sorted by seed.
1) New York Yankees
2024 record: 94-68 (AL East champions)
Wild Card matchup: N/A (first-round bye; will play winner of BAL vs. KC)
Manager: Aaron Boone
Team MVP: Aaron Judge, CF
Last World Series win: 2009
In 2023, the Yankees had their worst season in 31 years, barely winning 82 games and suffering a negative run differential while missing Judge for the better part of two months with a tedious toe injury. So in the offseason they discovered This One Cool Trick For Instantly Making Your Team Better: trade for Juan Soto. It was a hefty price and cost multiple players who turned the Padres into a postseason team on their own, but there’s also no one in baseball quite like Juan Soto. This is a no-doubt superstar who broke into the league with a .923 OPS as a teenager, won the World Series with playoff heroics for the Nationals the very next year, and has spent this decade burnishing his reputation at the plate as the next Ted Williams.
Soto instantly gave Judge his Lou Gehrig to his Babe Ruth, or his Roger Maris to his Mickey Mantle. They will both deservedly finish within the top five of AL MVP voting, with Judge likely winning thanks to a gobsmacking season that was somehow better than the 62-homer 2022 that broke Maris’ AL record. The captain hit “only” 58 bombs this time around, but he made smarter swing decisions, drove in more runs, and hit .322/.458/.701 with an 1.159 OPS, 223 OPS+, and 10.8 WAR — all figures topping 2022. No one wants to pitch to these guys.
Judge and Soto are capable of winning ballgames on their own, but the Yankees will need more from the remaining cast of characters to make their first World Series in 15 years. That includes AL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Wells, who gradually won the starting catcher job, active home run leader Giancarlo Stanton, resurgent leadoff man Gleyber Torres, and Trade Deadline acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Defending AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole missed the first two and a half months with a scary elbow injury. After a pseudo spring training within the regular season, looked like his normal, dominant self with a 2.25 ERA and 61 strikeouts across his final 10 starts. The rotation around Cole kept the Yankees sizzling during their ace’s absence, but it got shaky beyond May. Pricy southpaw Carlos Rodón endured a 5.97 ERA stretch for the better part of summer before righting himself a bit in September. Wells’ fellow Rookie of the Year candidate, Luis Gil, looked like Cole in May and then dipped into an ugly spell of his own (his talent oozes despite leading the majors in walks). Clarke Schmidt missed over three months and both Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman were booted from the rotation at different points in September.
A front three of Cole, Rodón, and Gil should be OK for an ALDS. The question is whether the bullpen can hold it together. As a unit, it mirrored Rodón somewhat in that it was good early on, awful for most of June through August, and picked it back up in September. Clay Holmes led the majors and tied a Yankees record with 13 blown saves, losing his job as closer in the season’s final month to out-of-nowhere success story Luke Weaver. Tommy Kahnle has been steady all year long and Ian Hamilton looks sharp off the IL; all three—and yes, even Holmes, if Boone is to be believed—are going to be counted on for big outs in October.
2) Cleveland Guardians
2024 record: 92-69 (AL Central champions)
Wild Card matchup: N/A (first-round bye; will play winner of HOU vs. DET)
Manager: Stephen Vogt
Team MVP: José Ramírez, 3B
Last World Series win: 1948
Plenty of fans viewed the 2024 Guardians as a team in transition. Yes, they still had the franchise icon Ramírez at the hot corner and ace Shane Bieber on the mound, but otherwise, it was difficult to envision them as a better team than the defending AL Central champion Twins. That outlook only got more bleak when Bieber went down early in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Likely Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona had departed the team in the offseason, making way for Vogt, who was popular but was also still an active player as recently as October 2022. How the heck were these guys going to stay afloat?
Here we are in October and the Twins are nowhere to be found. The Guardians got off to a 51-26 start under the rookie skipper, propelled by Ramírez (of course), slugger Josh Naylor, and the dominant Emmanuel Clase. The closer moved past José Mesa and Cody Allen to cement his status as the best closer in Cleveland history at both the single-season and career level, and 2024 was his pièce de résistance. Clase’s dynamite cutter helped him go 47-for-50 in save opportunities with an otherworldly 0.61 ERA and just one earned run allowed in the second half. Rookie Cade Smith provided sensational support in the ‘pen as well, as did Tim Herrin and converted starter Hunter Gaddis.
Then there’s the rock-solid Steven Kwan. He had finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting during Cleveland’s AL Central title run under Francona in 2022 before faltering like the rest of the team the following year. In 2024, he rebounded just as the team did, impressively earning a spot in the AL All-Star starting outfield alongside Judge and Soto. At the time, he had a .352 average and a .920 OPS. Even injury and a more quiet second half could only cast so much of a shadow on Kwan’s excellent campaign.
If Cleveland advances, then they’ll likely have their bullpen to thank far more than their rotation. The latter is their Achilles heel, and it’s frankly a glaring one. The Guardians managed to make it all work in the regular season without Bieber, and Tanner Bibee is a decent enough starter to get the ball in Game 1. It is a complete mystery box after that. Matthew Boyd was a Mariners reliever in 2022, a bad Tigers starter in 2023, and recovering from Tommy John surgery when Cleveland signed him in June. He had eight generally adequate starts, and suddenly, he’s their probable Game 2 starter. It’s anyone’s guess as to who would take Game 3.
This is a huge weakness for the Guardians to overcome, and the issue to comparing this team’s bullpen to 2016’s is that they don’t have a Corey Kluber to be the Cy Young-caliber ace, sparing the relief corps from needing to cover several innings. It might get bumpy.
3) Houston Astros
2024 record: 88-73 (AL West champions)
Wild Card matchup: Home vs. Detroit Tigers
Manager: Joe Espada
Team MVP: Yordan Alvarez, LF/DH
Last World Series win: 2022
Houston was perhaps the story of the 2024 MLB season’s opening months, as the powerhouse looked simply dreadful. They got off to a 12-24 start and even with a slight rebound, they were 33-40 on the morning of June 19th, sitting 10 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. With four pennants in the last decade and seven consecutive ALCS berths, there was optimism for a more serious return to form, but the cracks in the armor were glaring — especially with Alex Bregman slumping, Kyle Tucker on the shelf for most of the summer, the rotation leaking runs, and new closer Josh Hader tagged with un-Haderlike numbers.
Well, so much for all that. First-year skipper Espada has turned this team around, and they were already tied with the Mariners atop the division following the first game of the second half. Houston’s AL West lead never fell below three games from mid-August onward as Seattle faded. Bregman and Hader are good again, Tucker’s back and raking, Alvarez never stopped raking, and Playoff Jose Altuve looms in the dangerous October waters for anyone who dares to say that he’s in decline. Do not test him.
The starters’ turnaround has quietly been the most impressive. Only the A’s and White Sox had worse rotation ERAs than Houston among AL clubs at the end of May. Since then, they’ve been better than anyone except Seattle (who remained vaguely in the mix due exclusively to their outstanding pitching), the aging Justin Verlander notwithstanding. Framber Valdez is back in All-Star form, the long-touted Hunter Brown is now throwing just as well as Framber, and Yusei Kikuchi shook off the talk of a Trade Deadline overpay by recording a 2.70 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in 10 starts.
The Astros have played well for months, and even though they have to contend with the best-of-three Wild Card Series for the first time (aside from the COVID-impacted 2020), the path to the Fall Classic in the Junior Circuit still runs through Minute Maid Park’s train tracks. For the better part of this past decade, anyone with World Series aspirations has had to dispatch these Astros to advance. They are ruthless, and the last time they missed the ALCS was 2016 — otherwise known as 27 Altuve playoff homers ago.
4) Baltimore Orioles
2024 record: 91-71
Wild Card matchup: Home vs. Kansas City Royals
Manager: Brandon Hyde
Team MVP: Gunnar Henderson, SS
Last World Series win: 1983
The Yankees toppled the O’s to snatch away the AL East crown they held in 2023, but Baltimore still easily made the postseason as the top Wild Card. When all systems are go, this is the AL’s most well-rounded offense. Indeed, when they clinched their playoff spot on September 24th in the Bronx, everyone in their starting lineup had an OPS right around league average or better.
Henderson, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, was so sensational that he would’ve been the top challenger to Judge for AL MVP had it not been for another shortstop in Kansas City. Few noticed, but Anthony Santander backed him up with 44 bombs, the greatest switch-hit power season in the history of the Junior Circuit by anyone not named Mickey Mantle. Fellow outfielder Colton Cowser might make it back-to-back Rookie of the Year wins in Baltimore, catcher Adley Rutschman earned his third consecutive three-WAR season despite a second-half slump, and the O’s just recently got steady bats Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, and Ramón Urías back from the IL. It’s a grueling starting nine to endure, from top to bottom.
The problem is that confidence is low throughout the Charm City in the men on the mound outside of Corbin Burnes in Game 1. The imported former Cy Young Award winner from Milwaukee has held up his end of the bargain. Trade Deadline acquisition Zach Eflin won’t wow you, though he might be OK in Game 2. It gets dodgy in a hurry, as the Orioles are really missing 2023 breakouts Kyle Bradish and Félix Bautista, who are both out with Tommy John surgery. They won’t have Grayson Rodriguez or John Means, either, and first-half closer Craig Kimbrel was awful enough down the stretch to get released. Someone from the oft-frustrating pack of Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez, and more is going to have to step up and stabilize the paper-thin bullpen.
It can happen! The 2023 Rangers entered October with a spotty ‘pen before José Leclerc and Josh Sborz went into hero mode. Baltimore is holding out for one. Will they find him?
5) Kansas City Royals
2024 record: 86-76
Wild Card matchup: Away vs. Baltimore Orioles
Manager: Matt Quatraro
Team MVP: Bobby Witt Jr., SS
Last World Series win: 2015
In the long history of Major League Baseball, only one team that lost 100 games managed to make the playoffs the very next season: the 2017 Twins. It’s just hard to pull off that dramatic a turnaround. Those Twins now have company thanks to a division rival that helped prevent them from returning to the playoffs. In 2023, Kansas City tied a franchise record with 106 losses. Forget the postseason; they hadn’t even finished over .500 since their championship 2015.
Suddenly, the Royals are back in the dance, and that’s largely due to the efforts of one man, who they pinned the hopes of their future on back in 2019. The son of a 16-year MLB pitcher, Bobby Witt Jr. has made a name for himself as a premier shortstop since being drafted second overall by Kansas City out of Colleyville Heritage High School in Texas. His ascent has been remarkable, starting as a 20/20 rookie in 2022 before upgrading to 30/30 in 2023, which was a far better season on defense as well.
In 2024, Witt went full supernova to justify the Royals’ 11-year, $288.8 million extension in February. In a year without Aaron Judge doing preposterous Aaron Judge things, Witt would be the unanimous AL MVP. He won the batting title and led the league in hits with 211, batting .332/.389/.588 with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 9.4 WAR (10.4 per FanGraphs). Witt got support from the one standby remaining from 2015, team captain Salvador Perez. The catcher tied for the second-most homers in his career with 27, and more time at first base and DH helped the 34-year-old remain productive. Without the injured Vinnie Pasquantino though, the Royals’ offense has been easily baseball’s worst in September. Even with Witt and Salvy, they have a lot to prove.
Credit goes out to J.J. Picollo and Kansas City’s front office, as their probable top three starters were all acquired within the last year and a half, giving them a formidable trio for Baltimore and any future playoff foes to wrangle with. By flipping rental closer Aroldis Chapman at the 2023 Trade Deadline, the Royals got a former first-round pick in Cole Ragans; since coming to the City of Fountains, the lefty has merely been the third-best pitcher in baseball. Longtime Mets reliever Seth Lugo got his shot at starting in 2023 with San Diego and parlayed that into a multi-year contract with KC. Now, he’s an All-Star workhorse and one of just four pitchers in the majors with at least 200 innings. Another 2023 Padre, Michael Wacha, signed with the Royals, and has been perfectly cromulent.
The Royals’ bullpen is full of question marks, but Picollo at least also gets credit for solving one issue. Their closer situation was a mess until Lucas Erceg came over from the Oakland A’s. He’s allowed runs in just 4 of his 23 outings, recording 11 saves and a 0.840 WHIP. Kris Bubic and Angel Zerpa have been terrific in September, and they’ll be needed to build the bridge from the starters to Erceg while the offense tries to stay ahead.
6) Detroit Tigers
2024 record: 86-76
Wild Card matchup: Away vs. Houston Astros
Manager: A.J. Hinch
Team MVP: Tarik Skubal, SP
Last World Series win: 1984
In most seasons, a team ending a nine-year playoff absence would easily be the most surprising entrant to October. And honestly, given the Royals’ triple-digit losses in 2023, they might still have that title. We do ask you to at least consider the wild story of the 2024 Tigers, who snapped the longest* playoff drought in baseball to make it to the dance for the first time in a decade.
*Well, tied for the longest. Condolences to Mike Trout and all Angels fans.
At first brush, it might not be so shocking to see the Tigers here. They went from 66-96 in 2022 to 78-84 in 2023 and now to a Wild Card berth. That seems like a gradual ascent, but boy did it not feel that way. There wasn’t much outcry from the Motor City when they sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the Trade Deadline. The righty had posted a commendable comeback season, but no one thought the Tigers were going anywhere. They were 14 games back in the division and 7.5 out of a playoff spot, trailing five teams. The story was much the same as August began, and they were 10 behind in the Wild Card race at the end of play in August 10th.
Then, in the blink of an eye, Detroit became the best team in baseball. No one had a better record from the middle of August onward, which included a staggering 31-13 run. They were walking off the Yankees in Williamsport, helping bury the Red Sox and Mariners, sweeping the Royals, and making jaw-dropping catches to save the day against the Orioles. Before many even realized that the Tigers were on the prowl, they were just ... in the playoffs. An 18-game stretch in September that saw them go 15-3 sealed the deal, with the 15th victory clinching a playoff spot.
It’s not often that a pitcher is the team MVP, but no one would dispute that with Skubal. If he’s not the unanimous AL Cy Young Award winner, then there should be an investigation. In 192 innings, the first-time All-Star led the Junior Circuit in ERA (2.39), FIP (2.49), strikeouts (228), and WAR (6.3). The strangest thing is that Detroit did all this with very little behind him on the pitching front. Keider Montero appears to be a safe bet to start Game 2, but aside from shutting out the lowly Rockies on September 10th, he hasn’t exactly been the kind of guy to be a No. 2 starter. The reality is that Hinch will lean hard on Skubal in the opener and then try to find some way to cobble the remaining innings he needs to win the series out of the bullpen. Detroit started a ton of openers late in 2024, leaning on “bulk guys” like Brant Hurter to provide length.
Can that MacGyver-esque formula possibly combine with an offense led by All-Star Riley Greene and the underrated Kerry Carpenter to deliver Detroit to the promised land, even with the relentless, dream-killing, playoff-savvy Astros in the way from the jump? Erstwhile Houston skipper Hinch sure hopes so. It’s worked for six weeks; adrenaline and a refusal to lose have both led to many a long postseason run in the past. To quote incomparable announcer Jason Benetti, “A city that doesn’t care about the odds has a baseball team to match.”