UFC Abu Dhabi paths to victory: How can Cory Sandhagen or Umar Nurmagomedov leave as the No. 1 contender?

Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov are finally going to fight.

This Saturday, Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov face off in the main event of UFC Abu Dhabi, with a bantamweight title shot presumably on the line. It was a matchup that was supposed to take place a year ago, but now it’s finally here, and the stakes are massive. So how can each man leave Abu Dhabi as the next in line to challenge for the bantamweight title?

Let’s take a look.

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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paths to Victory for Cory Sandhagen at UFC Abu Dhabi

Cory Sandhagen is quite possibly the most well-rounded fighter in the UFC’s bantamweight division. A diverse striker who uses his length and variety on the feet, including frequent stance switches, to keep his opponents guessing, but in recent outings we’ve seen Sandhagen lean on his wrestling game more. Against Chito Vera and Rob Font, Sandhagen used his wrestling to set up his striking and visa versa, taking the fight to the floor and controlling the action when he wasn’t outworking his opponents on the feet.

Against Nurmagomedov though, it’s unlikely we see much of that offensive wrestling game from Sandhagen. Umar is an exceptional ground fighter and so the plan for Sandhagen must begin and end with keeping things standing. On the feet, Sandhagen’s length and variety give him a clear edge over the limited Nurmagomedov, and fortunately for Sandhagen, some of his style is already well-built to assist this goal.

Sandhagen already is very good at maintaining his range, dissuading pressure with his footwork, angles, and stance-switches. That footwork is key as it’s substantially more difficult for Nurmagomedov to finish takedowns in open space, especially if he’s shooting from far away. Sandhagen needs to maintain the range, stay off the fence, and stay active down the center with jabs and teeps. Make Nurmagomedov pay for trying to close the distance and never give him easy takedowns. That’s the Sandhagen gameplan in a nutshell.

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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paths to victory for Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC Abu Dhabi

Nurmagomedov is perhaps the most hyped prospect in all of MMA. Making his UFC debut in 2021, and carrying the weight of expectation that comes from sharing a last name with one of the greatest fighters of all time, Nurmagomedov has done nothing to dissuade the hype surrounding him. In fact, the biggest impediment for Nurmagomedov to rise up the ranks has been a lack of people willing to fight him. That changes on Saturday.

One of the big selling points behind Nurmagomedov is the idea that he’s both a world-class grappler and can strike. That’s a bit reductive, but it’s not far off. Nurmagomedov is an exceptional wrestler and grappler, as his cousin Khabib and younger brother Usman are, however, his striking is a bit overblown.

That’s not to say Nurmagomedov doesn’t have hands. He has some real flash to his game, especially with his kicks, and he carries more natural power than most of the other fighters from the Team Khabib fight camp. But he’s still limited on the feet (he basically never uses his left hand), and has some bad tendencies, especially defensively. But ultimately, it hasn’t mattered yet as his grappling ability is a great coverup for any other shortcomings.

Nurmagomedov is elite at snatching a leg whenever he is in trouble, or when the opportunity presents itself, and from there he’s much like Khabib in his ability to run the pipe, chain techniques, and move opponents to the fence or sneak to the back. It’s a multilayered grappling attack and one he can initiate out of almost nowhere. The grappling is the Nurmagomedov’s big gun and how he wins this fight.

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Prediction

Cory Sandhagen is quite possibly the most difficult style matchup in the bantamweight division for Umar Nurmagomedov. With his experience, well-rounded skills, and superior striking, he presents a massive leap up in competition for Nurmagomedov. It’s like going from driving go-karts to driving a Formula 1 car.

But Nurmagomedov is Max Verstappen.

Sandhagen is well-rounded, but he’s never been an elite defensive wrestler, and for as good as he may be on the ground, Nurmagomedov is better. This is going to be a coming out party for the highly-touted Dagestani as he punches his ticket to a bantamweight title shot.

Umar Nurmagomedov def. Cory Sandhagen via submission (rear-naked choke) — Round 3, 2:20