British Open 2024: Odds, value picks, insight for Royal Troon

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The Open, Royal Troon — The Open logo seen on a flag waving at Royal Troon. | Photo by Luke Walker/R&A via Getty Images

The Open returns to Royal Troon, so we have provided the latest odds and predictions for the season’s final major.

We are less than 24 hours from the beginning of The Open Championship, perhaps the most unpredictable major of them all. It also happens to be the final major of the season, after the PGA Championship shifted from August to May in 2019.

As such, this marks the last event that both PGA Tour and LIV Golf players will compete side-by-side until Augusta National—unless an agreement between the two sides comes to fruition before then. It could happen, but all involved still have plenty more to work out. Yet, in his pre-Open Championship press conference on Tuesday, Tiger Woods noted that progress between the tour and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF)—LIV Golf’s beneficiary—continues to be made.

Nevertheless, this year’s Open at Royal Troon features a strong field again. Hopefully, that leads golf fans to see some drama—much unlike last year, when Brian Harman ran away from the field and won by six. But nobody saw Harman doing what he did last year. Nor did anyone envision Henrik Stenson decimating Royal Troon in 2016, shooting 20-under par to defeat Phil Mickelson by three in one of the best duels ever. I don’t think anyone predicted Todd Hamilton winning in a playoff over Ernie Els at Troon in 2004, either.

The Open, Henrik Stenson — The final leaderboard from the 2016 Open Championship.

The Open Championship Odds:

Here are the latest odds for players to win the 2024 Open Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +450

Rory McIlroy +850

Xander Schauffele +1100

Ludvig Åberg +1600

Collin Morikawa +1600

Bryson DeChambeau +1800

Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Jon Rahm +2500

Tyrrell Hatton +2800

Viktor Hovland +3000

Brooks Koepka +3000

Shane Lowry +4000

Robert MacIntyre +4000

Patrick Cantlay +4000

Tony Finau +4500

Tom Kim +4500

Hideki Matsuyama +4500

Cameron Smith +4500

Joaquin Niemann +5500

Wyndham Clark +6000

Sahith Theegala +6000

Matt Fitzpatrick +6000

Louis Oosthuizen +6000

Jordan Spieth +6000

Corey Conners +6000

Cameron Young +600

Sungjae Im +6500

Brian Harman +6500

Adam Scott +6500

Aaron Rai +6500

Justin Thomas +7000

Min Woo Lee +7500

Alex Noren +9000

Akshay Bhatia +9000

Si Woo Kim +10000

Sepp Straka +10000

Jason Day +10000

Davis Thompson +10000

Sam Burns +11000

Russell Henley +11000

Max Homa +11000

Rory McIlroy, The Open — Rory McIlroy during a Tuesday practice round ahead of The Open.

Picks, Predictions, Insight

Avoid Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland

Jordan Spieth has an impressive history at this championship, winning the Claret Jug in 2017 and finishing no worse than 30th in his last eight appearances. But Spieth has struggled this year, as he has not posted a top-10 finish since the Valero Texas Open. Poor iron play helps explain that. He missed the cut at The Masters and failed to contend at Valhalla or Pinehurst. The Texan did not make the weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open either, proving that his game is in dire straits.

In a similar vein, Viktor Hovland has looked nothing like the player who won the 2023 FedEx Cup. His short game has completely abandoned him, and his approach play has taken a noticeable dip.

After finishing solo third at the PGA Championship, it looked like Hovland had turned a corner. He posted a pair of 69s to begin the Memorial Tournament, but a poor weekend brought him back and into a tie for 15th. The young Norwegian then missed the cut at the U.S. Open and most recently tied for 46th at the Scottish Open.

Avoiding Spieth and Hovland this week is a necessary play.

Jordan Spieth, The Open, Royal Troon — Jordan Spieth during a practice round at Royal Troon.

A trio of Top 10 picks we love

This is the week for Sungjae Im, who will contend in a major for the first time this season. Im has had a remarkable season, posting six top 10s, five of which have come since April. But somewhat inexplicably, Im has missed the cut in all three majors.

Since shooting 77-74 at Augusta, Im has finished T-12, T-4, MC, T-9, T-8, MC, T-3, T-12, and most recently tied for fourth at the Scottish Open. Yet, we believe Im has some extra motivation to play well this week and will finish in the top 10 at +550.

We also like two LIV Golf players—both of whom have won Claret Jugs before—to finish in the top 10.

Cameron Smith, who has one of the best short games in the world, will return to Open contention this week. So will Louis Oosthuizen, who has not played in a major yet this season. Oosthuizen, who won twice on the DP World Tour this past December, has seen his Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) so dramatically because of his status on LIV that he did not qualify for any other majors. That should inspire him to play well this week.

Smith has a top 10 price of +400, while Oosthuizen is listed at +550.

Two major champions finish among Top 5

Jon Rahm fights back with a vengeance this week to finish in the top 5 at +500.

One of the big talking points of the 2024 season has been about Rahm’s struggles in major championships, perhaps because he decided to join LIV Golf in December. He played poorly in his Masters title defense and then missed the cut at Valhalla. Then, a foot infection forced him to withdraw from the U.S. Open, leaving Rahm watching from bed at home. Thankfully, Rahm’s wound has healed, and he will play this week.

Reports indicate that his form at Troon looks solid, and he feels confident in himself, too. Rahm even said he feels close to replicating the form he had when he won the 2023 Masters. He also has a strong history at The Open, posting two top-five finishes in his last three starts. We believe another one follows this week, and who knows, perhaps he hoists the Claret Jug, taking after his hero Seve Ballesteros, who won it three times.

Jon Rahm, The Open — Jon Rahm smiles during a practice round at Royal Troon.

Another major champion that we believe will finish among the top five is Xander Schauffele, who has had a terrific 2024 campaign.

Schauffele prevailed by one stroke over Bryson DeChambeau at Valhalla, winning his first major title. Since then, he has posted four straight top-15 finishes, including a T-7 at Pinehurst No. 2., where he shot only one round over par that week. The former San Diego State Aztech has no flaws in his game, as his strong iron play and crafty short game should have him contending in a major once again. He is seemingly always there on the leaderboard. He tied for 15th last year at Royal Liverpool, and his best finish at The Open came in 2018, when he tied for second at Carnoustie.

Give us Schauffele to finish in the top 5 at +260.

Possible winners, including a longshot

We have four winning picks for this week’s Open Championship.

First up is Tyrrell Hatton, who, at +2800, feels ready to break through and win a major. Hatton is trending in the right direction, and his game suits Royal Troon well. The three-time Ryder Cupper has long been one of the game’s top ball-strikers, but his short game is underrated, too.

Collin Morikawa, The Open — Collin Morikawa at Royal Troon.

Another player with a similar pedigree is Collin Morikawa, who has won The Open before. At +1600, Morikawa arrives at Royal Troon as one of the favorites, and he most certainly will have a presence on the leaderboard come Sunday. But the question for him is if he can close out a final round, something he has struggled with in 2024.

Tommy Fleetwood is another winner we like this week at +2200. The Englishman has not missed a cut since firing an 80 at Bay Hill, although he has not contended in a major since The Masters. But his last four finishes at The Open are solo second, T-33, T-4, and a T-10 one year ago. Fleetwood loves links golf, and his imaginative short game and wedge play bode well for Royal Troon. This could be his week.

And then, finally, our longshot winner we like is a man who made it into the field on Sunday evening: Englishman Aaron Rai.

Rai is trending in the right direction, having posted five straight top-20 finishes, which includes a tie for second in Detroit. But this recent run is far from a fluke. Rai ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in overall strokes gained. He has played flawlessly, ranking first in driver accuracy percentage at 72.97% and third in greens in regulation percentage at 72.47%. In the rare event he misses the green, Rai can get up and down, too, ranking 10th on tour in scrambling percentage. Putting has not been his strong suit, but he still ranks 54th in strokes gained on the green.

Good ball-strikers and those with solid short games win Open Championships, and Rai fits that bill. So why not take a shot on him at +6500?

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.