The Lakers are taking a big risk with JJ Redick in hopes of a home run hire

In hiring JJ Redick, the Lakers are betting on a first-time coach to stop the franchise’s revolving door of head coaches.

The worst-kept secret over the last six weeks was that JJ Redick would be the Lakers’ next head coach, something that was finally reported on Thursday by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

Even if there was a brief infatuation with Dan Hurley or continued talks with James Borrego as presumably their Plan B, Redick has long felt like the coach the franchise would eventually land on.

You can look at Redick and see whatever you want to see. He’s either a young, smart basketball mind who has the makings of a future coaching great or a talking head in sports media with zero coaching experience thrown into too big a job too quickly.

I tend to lean toward the former rather than the latter. Watching Redick talk basketball, you come away thinking he would make a great head coach. His memory rivals that of LeBron James and he has a Rolodex of plays across decades of NBA experience to call back to.

But I'd be equal parts unsurprised if he was back on ESPN broadcasts in two years as I would be if he was leading the Lakers to repeated deep runs in the playoffs and titles over the next decade. It feels like about any outcome is possible with Redick.

It’s a big risk for a Lakers franchise that has seen a host of coaches come through its doors over the last decade. After firing a first-time head coach in Darvin Ham, who had years of experience as an assistant in the NBA, the team is hiring a first-time coach in Redick, who has years of experience at the youth level.

The Lakers did have their eyes on experienced coaches out of the gate as both Ty Lue and Jason Kidd were among the first names linked to the opening. Both, perhaps by design, signed extensions with their respective franchises, taking them off the market.

When Mike Budenholzer joined the Suns, the only other real high-level experience on the open market was removed from the table as well, leaving the Lakers with few options. Even then, there’s a big gulf between title-winning coaches and Redick, whose post-playing career has been about podcasting and analyst work on ESPN, not as a coach.

But there are reasons to believe in Redick, as the Lakers clearly do. Redick’s work with LeBron James on the “Mind the Game” podcast effectively served as his resume, in hindsight, for the job. It was abundantly clear in even the opening episodes of the podcast that Redick has an incredibly high basketball IQ.

An entire episode dedicated to drawing up different plays to get 3-pointers felt like a public interview as much as it did a discussion between Redick and LeBron James. A welcome embrace of advanced stats and analytics as part of his thinking is still not always the norm among head coaches.

Redick’s charisma and ability to communicate was evident, too. Former players-turned-coaches commonly receive the label of a “player’s coach” because of their ability to relate to the roster and Redick should be no different. He’ll have the ear of his team because of that.

Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

But lots of former players have high basketball IQs. Lots of former players are charismatic — and most of them start podcasts, too. Even the ones that are a mix of both don’t find themselves in the spot Redick is in, now.

Being a head coach requires a lot more than that. It involves lots of things Redick hasn’t shown yet. Even the most qualified, tenured and respected assistant coaches, like Ham before being hired by the Lakers, fail in making that jump.

How will Redick build a rotation? How will he handle a roster on it’s third game in four nights as part of a six-game road trip in January? How will he deal with frustrating losses when the heat gets turned up? How well will he make in-game adjustments? How well will he implement a gameplan on a nightly basis? What are his core beliefs as a coach?

Those are all things you deal with in any head coaching job. This is not a normal head coaching job. This is the Lakers and a LeBron James team, where everything is amplified. How will Redick handle it?

The answer is we simply don’t know, and neither do the Lakers. Their multiple conversations and in-person interview went some way in soothing those worries, but there’s still no way of knowing until those moments arise.

The Lakers are betting that Redick, surrounded by an “elite” coaching staff, can navigate those waters. The comparisons to Pat Riley are easy to see, even if also entirely unrealistic. There is a history of not just turning a media figure into a successful head coach, but doing so in Los Angeles. The Lakers are trying to catch lightning in a bottle once more.

It’s a big risk for the front office and this feels like the last chance they have to get it right. Most of this front office was associated with getting things wrong before Frank Vogel’s firing. They were entirely responsible for the hiring and firing of Darvin Ham.

Get this one wrong and the changes won’t just be on the sideline. Rob Pelinka’s job should be, and likely is, tied to this hiring. The criticisms of Jeanie Buss have continued to mount since winning a title in 2020. Selling the team is off the table, but what does another failed coach mean for her?

This is not just a big risk at the head coach position but for everyone in the franchise.

It’s easy to watch or listen to JJ Redick and come away thinking how intelligent and charismatic he is. Those qualities alone, though, do not make a good head coach. The Lakers are hoping, though, that they are signs of someone who could finally lead this franchise for years to come.

One way or another, the Lakers franchise will almost certainly change with this hire. It’s an all-in gamble.

If it works, they’ve hit the jackpot. If it doesn’t, it could be bankruptcy.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude.